By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

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By William Tucker

The city of Jos, Nigeria is experiencing violence between Christian and Muslims once again in what appears to be a continuation of fighting that began in January. Since fighting in this city is frequent it is unclear what set off this bout of violence, but what we do know is that aid organizations have given body counts of over 600 since the fighting began in January. I discussed one possible reason back in February:

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua has since returned to his country, but has not resumed his role leaving Jonathan as acting President. While we don't have a clear connection between national political issues affecting regional violence we cannot rule it out either.

Map credit: United Nations Cartography. Text in red is mine.

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By William Tucker

Preliminary reports suggesting that Adam Gadahn was captured in Karachi appear to have been premature, but the confusion is understandable. At this time media reports, supported by Pakistani sources, have stated that Adam Gadahn is not in custody; however the individual is an American member of al-Qaeda. According to the Pakistani newspaper DAWN, the suspects name is Abu Yahya, an alias used by Gadahn in the past. Other media outlets are quoting different names, but all of these are similar to aliases used by Gadahn. At this point we don't have much more to go on, nor do we know the significance of this arrest. Stay posted for more.

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By William Tucker

The spokesman for al Qaeda prime, Adam Gadahn, has been arrested in Karachi Pakistan according to sources of both the Associated Press and Reuters. Because Gadahn is known to go by several aliases it is difficult to ascertain at this time if the press reports are indeed accurate. This confusion has led the press to proclaim Gadahn's death in the past only to have the terrorist resurface. For the sake of this article we'll assume the reports are correct.

Since Gadahn began working with al-Qaeda he has released, and probably produced, numerous videos of propaganda value. The usefulness of propaganda by terrorist movements cannot be understated as it helps in recruiting and countering the message of their targets. If Gadahn was as involved in creating these videos as many suspect, his absence will have a significant impact on al Qaeda's ability to spread propaganda effectively. Furthermore, Gadahn released a new video this morning just before his arrest, but we don't know if the two are connected.

Gadahn's arrest comes on the heels of several other arrests of high level Taliban members and it is possible intelligence gathered from those individuals helped in locating Gadahn. Many analysts suspect that members of the Taliban Shura* left the city of Quetta in the Baluchistan province when the U.S. began threatening to expand drone strikes to the area. This threat by the U.S. was never expected to occur as Quetta is densely populated and collateral damage would have been high, but the threat seemed to have forced many operatives to move to a safer location. Indeed, Pakistani news outlets began reporting on a mass influx of Pashtu into Karachi around the same time of the U.S. threats and the subsequent Pakistani military operations in Swat and South Waziristan.

Assuming that Gadahn has information on the whereabouts of other Taliban/al Qaeda members, his detention could have a harmful effect on both movements. Since Gadahn released a video today it is possible that he possess time sensitive information on the location of other wanted individuals, but with the rampant media reports about his detention it may be already too late. With the numerous arrests of other high level Taliban it is likely they will be forced to respond, and historically speaking their response will be violent. This analysis is preliminary and we will continue to follow future developments as they become available.

*The Shura discussed here is the one directly associated with Mullah Omar, the leader of the main Taliban movement.

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By William Tucker

Terrorism experts have long lamented the support for terrorism provided by the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the lack of condemnation from the United States. Earlier this week a Spanish Judge accused Venezuela of actively supporting the Basque separatist group ETA. This is, of course, in addition to accusations of supporting FARC in Colombia, which was verified by Interpol, and support for Lebanon's Hezbollah. Furthermore, a Venezuela defector, who also happened to be Chavez's personal pilot, fingered Caracas for supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Continue reading "Going from Bad to Worse for Hugo Chavez" »

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By William Tucker

Earlier today the Singapore Shipping Agency stated that terrorists are looking to attack oil tankers and other ships of significant value transiting the Malacca Strait. The warning was issued by the Singapore Navy Fusion Centre when they "received an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Straits." The report goes on to say that, "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo."

Threats to shipping in the Malacca Strait are not new, nor are these threats solely in the domain of terrorism. In the late 90's piracy was a major concern which generated significant attention from regional powers such as China and Japan. The Malacca Strait is a important transit point for cargo and oil tankers moving Middle Eastern crude to energy hungry powers of the far east. A 2006 study estimated that 15 million barrels of oil transit the strait per day.

Photo: Singapore Navy patrol on the Malacca Strait
Credit: Associated Press

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In September 2007, American Public University System (APUS) signed the American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment (ACUPCC) as a charter signatory.

There are now more than 600 signatories to the commitment. Each institution is required to complete and submit a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory within one year of signing the commitment (click here to view APUS' GHG Emissions Inventory) and within two years of signing, signatories are required to complete and submit a Climate Action Plan (CAP). The CAP is a statement of measures the university has already taken and measures it intends to undertake to address and mitigate its GHG emissions and carbon footprint.

Continue reading "Online University Launches Sustainability Blog" »

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by William Tucker

The Iraqi government has reissued a 2004 warrant for the arrest of Muqtada al-Sadr for the 2003 murder of Majid al-Khoie, another Shiite cleric who had just returned to the holy city of Najaf. The original warrant was shelved as part of a cease-fire deal between U.S. forces and several Shiite militias including al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. With national elections slated to take place March 7 the timing of this really calls into the question the purpose behind reissuing the warrant. In the past when threats against al-Sadr were made his followers would often react with mass protests which often turned violent. It is likely that the ruling party did issue this warrant for political gain in the run-up to next weeks election, but in doing so they risk increasing the possibility of violence between different sects and political movements.

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By William Tucker

Two days ago on February 27 an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck at 3:34 a.m. just to the north of Concepcion, Chile. Concepcion is Chile's second-largest city of nearly 900,000 people and is located due south of the capital Santiago. Because Chile is located in an earthquake prone region the government has taken mitigating measures such as implementing strict building codes and constructing an emergency management department. That being said, one thing that has plagued large scale disasters as of late is security.

Continue reading "Security in a Disaster: Assessing the Security Response to the Chilean Earthquake" »

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By William Tucker

When the Soviet Union fell apart many nations that had not known independence in over a century were forced to create political and economic systems without a connection to Moscow. The areas that suffered the most were the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the redrawing of borders under the reign of Josef Stalin. Stalin's purpose was to mix ethno linguistic groups thus preventing any one group from becoming too powerful and causing trouble, but without the power of the red army maintaining stability an outbreak of war in several regions was inevitable. The wars of mid 1990's that occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a prime example of this.

In recent years Turkey and Armenia have been engaged in normalization talks, but this move has made Azerbaijan nervous. The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan began shortly after ethnic Armenians in the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh passed legislation declaring their intention to unite with Armenia. The government in Yerevan pledged their assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh and a wider war between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. Although the war was ended via a cease fire brokered by Russia in 1994 the dispute was never settled.

Lately Azerbaijan has focused on upgrading their military and is threatening war to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but Russia and Turkey will do everything they can to prevent another conflict. The Caucasus is a sensitive area for Russia specifically and has been used as a lever to cause problems for Moscow in the past. With Russia pushing back against western interests in several areas it is not a stretch to expect the same to happen again. In any case activities in the Caucasus bear closer scrutiny.

Map credit: U.S. State Department

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From the Washington Regional Threat and Analysis Center:

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) National Security Analysis & Intelligence Summer Seminar (NSAISS) is now accepting applications for a two week summer program in Washington, DC. NSAISS addresses critical national priorities in the U.S. Intelligence Community and offers participants the chance to study with currently serving intelligence analysts and other professionals through a curriculum of lectures, case studies, practice simulations, site visits to agencies, and other forms of exploration of intelligence disciplines, methodologies and substantive topics under the direction of the Intelligence Community, academia and private sector experts. Selected participants will receive a one time, $500 stipend; accommodations, transportation to/from Washington D.C. and to all program activities; and temporary "Secret" level security clearance for the duration of the seminar. Training is July 11-23, 2010. Call for applications. The application deadline is March 7, 2010. For more information about the program, eligibility and application visit http://www.orau.gov/nsaiss Please share this information with others at your academic institution/organization. http://www.dni.gov/cae/#2010Program

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By William Tucker

In the last two weeks the U.S. has witnessed two more school shootings. These attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.

The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, "an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims." Furthermore DHS states:

Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.

It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or every school, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places - for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same so it is important to tailor your approach to your location.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters

Training Book

Pocket Guide

Poster

Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan.

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