By John A.Cote MSSI, CPP

Could a major military strike in Iraq be in the very near future? It seems that all the ingredients have been added into the mix for such an event to take place.

The newly appointed Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, has to make a big splash in order to set the tone of his tenor. To do that, he needs help facilitate a rather large and significant policy shift in Iraq.

Secretary Gates has essentially stated that we are losing the war in Iraq and that a major overhaul to the U.S. war strategy is needed to break the endless cycle of violence occurring every day throughout Iraq.

Currently, the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is steaming its way toward the Gulf to relieve the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise strike group, which was in the region supporting operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Having two complete battle groups in the region is thought to be a show of force to Iran.

But what if there were other reasons why two battle groups were there?

Lately the name Muqtada al-Sadr has been thrown around the Pentagon as the current public enemy number one in Iraq. Could a major Tomahawk Land-Attack Missile (TLAM) attack on the leadership of al-Sadr's group be in the cards?

Such an event would serve as the major policy shift needed in Iraq, because if successful, it would send a major message to anyone trying to interfere in the restoration process of Iraq.

In the early hours of the current Saddam Hussein. Why not try a decapitating blow to the al-Sadr Army by sending in a TLAM strike on all major players in the al-sadr Army other wise known as the Mahdi?

The first battle of Fallujah referred to as Operation Vigilant Resolve held in April of 2004 resulted in an unsuccessful attempt by the U.S. to recapture the city. November 7, 2004 saw a second attempt by the U.S. to recapture the city of Fallujah in Operation Phantom Fury which ended in January of 2005 resulting in another U.S. pull back.

I am sure with having all those troops in the city fighting, quite a bit of intelligence was gathered on the make up and location of the Mahdi Army. It could be this very intelligence which is being analyzed and reviewed right now as you read this article, which is used to program those TLAM’s in order to make a bold U.S. Statement.

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John A.Cote MSSI, CPP

Although events in Iraq, Gaza and Afghanistan have been taking more than their share of headlines as of late, a war in Somalia has been brewing for the past few months.

The Ethiopian and Ugandan armies have dug in just outside of Baidoa and have been skirmishing with the Council of Islamic Courts Union (CICU) for the past few days. If Somalia falls to the CICU, major problems will arise for the United States and the rest of the world.

A recent report has been released by the United Nations stating two members of the Iranian government have been in Somalia representing the Iranian geological survey and were looking for uranium deposits.

In an article titled Somalia and Anarchy author Jim Davidson mentioned that uranium deposits were found in large quantities on maps created by a Soviet mineralogical survey taken in the 1970’s.

If a pro-Islamic government takes control of Somalia where there is possibly large quantities of uranium ore, which helps meet its demand for Uranium 235 (used to make nuclear fission bombs) the threat is quite clear.

Many analysts suggest that the Somali militants who took part in the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993 those two days had training from Al Qaeda. This is because of their effective use of the RPG-7 against the Americans as a surface to air weapon. If the CICU take over the country, Al Qaeda will have a free reign within Somalia borders.

It’s truly a shame the United States is busy keeping its eye on Iraq and failing to see an even greater threat brewing and getting a chance to take hold in another part of the world If the weak Transitional Federal Government fails to hold the CICU at bay the United States can look forward to having to enter a new front on the war on terror.

Related News and Blogs
Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" Urges Immediate Support for Somali Islamists (Evan Kohlmann: CounterTerrorism Blog)
Pajamas Media: Why Ethiopia is Winning in Somalia (Daveed Gartenstein-Ross: CounterTerrorism Blog)
The Somalia War Spills Over (Douglas Farah: CounterTerrorism Blog)

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President Bush released a statement following his meeting with the Iraq Study Group Wednesday, saying that the report "gives a tough assessment on the situation in Iraq" and that he plans to "take every proposal seriously."

Calling the war in Iraq "grave and deteriorating" in their report, the group cautions that there's no clear path to success in this situation, but there's definite room for improvement.

Click here to read the report: The Way Forward
Watch or listen to congressional testimony on the report.
(source: C-SPAN)

Some recommendations found in the report:

Below is a list of expos, meetings, courses and symposiums related to homeland security.

Dec 18: National Press Club Event with White House Homeland Security Advisor Fran Townsend on “Preparing for a Pandemic: The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza.” National Press club, 529 14th St NW, 10am.
Dec 18: CSI Event. “Avian and Pandemic Influenza: Bamako Conference Briefing.” 1800 K St NW, 2pm.
Dec 19: CSIS event with DHS Asst. Secretary Stewart Baker on “Terrorist Screening and Privacy Issues.” 1800 K St NW, 11am.
Dec 19: National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee Meeting 1615 H St, NW, 1pm.
Dec 20: Washington Foreign Press Center briefing with DHS Acting Asst. Sec. for International Affairs Paul Rosenzweig on ”Review of 2006 for the Department of Homeland Security and Priorities for 2007.” 14th and F St NW, 4pm.
Feb 6 - 7: Homeland Security Symposium:The Ripple Effect will be one of the first-ever homeland security conferences to address the needs of outlying communities after a catastrophe. It's set for Feb. 6-7 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Speakers include Hon. Bennie G. Thompson, Lieutenant General Russel Honoré, and other senior officials. For more details, visit www.apus.edu/disaster.
Mar 15 - 26, 2007: Galillee College in Israel, will offer its International Seminar on National Security. Since its establishment in 1987, Galillee College has offered management training and capacity building seminars to senior officials and decision makers from around the globe. The two-week national security program includes analysis of basic national security issues and potential international and regional conflicts. A key issue will be the application of resources in peace and war in order to strengthen national security. Israeli and Middle East regional security affairs will be considered within the context of global politics. The next session will occur March 15-26. Current American Military University and American Public University students may receive a tuition scholarship. Act now to secure your spot. Click here to learn more.

Is your homeland security event missing from this list? Then E-mail us your event info.

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