By John A. Cote MSSI, CPP

In Iraq today the real problem is not the number of troops we need to complete the job there, but rather how to implement a strategic exit plan which takes into account the many complex issues which created the Iraq crisis in the first place.

It clearly is in our best interest to have a peaceful Iraq. It’s time the United States lowers its pride a little and asks for help from her allies around the world. This help should be comprised of both treasure and blood. Many countries so far have been more than willing to give money toward the war effort, but have refused to send any troops to help in securing Iraq. In order to truly say “Mission Accomplished” the U.S. needs to:

• Show a truly independent Iraq
  
• Leave the smallest U.S. footprint in Iraq
  
• Get Iraq’s neighbors to take the responsibility of helping the fledgling nation
  
• Talk with Iran about its responsibilities to its neighbor
  
• Talk with Syria about its responsibilities to its neighbor

I know that in the beginning of this war we did have other coalition members with troops on the ground but they systematically left the field of battle as their forces came under deadly fire.

Most of us agree a calm Iraq would be better for the world as a whole. Now is the time for America and her allies to take a stand against terrorism. Getting the rest of the world to take its fair share of the burden would give the U.S. troops a chance to recuperate and Iraq could be flooded with the numbers of troops to truly once and for all defeat the insurgents.

John Cote is a terrorism and security analyst currently living in the Czech Republic. Cote holds a master's degree in Strategic Intelligence from American Military University.

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By John A. Cote MSSI, CPP

Since that dreadful day in September 2001, many committees and organizations have tried to rate our performance as a country prepared for the next terrorist attack. The report cards given for our preparedness so far have been varied to say the least.

Many experts agree that it's not a matter of if but when the next attack will take place. Will we be ready?

When thinking of terrorism, folks tend to predict what may happen in the future based on past events. Overall, thinking this way does not prepare us for new techniques our enemy may have devised for inflicting carnage on us. No one, prior to 9/11, was truly prepared for an attack on our country by commercial jetliners used as flying bombs.

NORAD was prepared for an attack on our country by bombers or jet fighters, however there did not seem to be protocols for engaging a civilian aircraft acting in a threatening manor.

If you recall, just after we were attacked by the four commercial jetliners the security industry went to great lengths to develop countermeasures to secure this gap in our national security.

The Transportation Security Administration was developed and began to implement new security measures in our nation’s airports. Private industry developed new cockpit doors which could withstand repeated attacks from guns and forced entry. Some pilots decided to carry guns on board as a last defense against a cockpit attack.

All these measures are very good steps in preventing another attack of the same nature, however, our enemy is very cunning and adaptable.

Even now, some six years after 9/11, many other modes of transportation besides air travel are very vulnerable.

In London, terrorists didn't use airplanes they chose to attack the subway systems. In Spain, terrorists chose to attack trains. I recently rode the train from a major eastern city. My ticket was not checked until the train had reached the fourth stop. There was one person trying to check tickets but a cursory glance was all that was given as throngs of people marched toward the waiting train. Anyone could have boarded that train carrying anything they wanted.

So again I ask are we ready for the next attack? Let me put it another way, are you ready for the next attack? Each person needs to take responsibility and prepare themselves for what may come.

Now, I don’t mean we need to be afraid, but with the passage of time between major violent events, people become complacent and enveloped in a false sense of security that can cloud our thinking. It is up to each one of us to be prepared for what's coming.

How do you prepare for such an event?

There are many Web sites out there with excellent emergency preparedness information – Ready.gov, The American Red Cross, and the National Terror Alert just to name a few. There’s a definite consensus:

1. Create an emergency communications plan
Choose an out-of-town contact your family or household will call or e-mail to check on each other should a disaster occur. Your selected contact should live far enough away that they would be unlikely to be directly affected by the same event, and they should know they are the chosen contact. Make sure every household member has that contact's, and each other's, e-mail addresses and telephone numbers (home, work, pager and cell). Leave these contact numbers at your children's schools, if you have children, and at your workplace.

2. Establish a meeting place
Having a predetermined meeting place away from your home will save time and minimize confusion should your home be affected or the area evacuated. You may even want to make arrangements to stay with a family member or friend in case of an emergency. Be sure to include any pets in these plans, since pets are not permitted in shelters and some hotels will not accept them.

3. Assemble a disaster supplies kit
Prepare a disaster supplies kit in an easy-to-carry container such as a duffel bag or small plastic trash can. Include "special needs" items for any member of your household (infant formula or items for people with disabilities or older people), first aid supplies (including prescription medications), a change of clothing for each household member, a sleeping bag or bedroll for each, a battery powered radio or television and extra batteries, food, bottled water and tools. It is also a good idea to include some cash and copies of important family documents (birth certificates, passports and licenses) in your kit.

4. Check on the school emergency plan of any school-age children you may have
You need to know if they will they keep children at school until a parent or designated adult can pick them up or send them home on their own. Be sure that the school has updated information about how to reach parents and responsible caregivers to arrange for pickup. And, ask what type of authorization the school may require to release a child to someone you designate, if you are not able to pick up your child. During times of emergency the school telephones may be overwhelmed with calls. (source: American Red Cross)

For more on information on preparing for the unexpected, visit:

• American Red Cross
  
• National Terror Alert
  
• Ready.gov

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WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 (UPI) -- U.S. homeland security experts are aware of significant gaps in disaster preparedness, such as pre-established destinations for evacuees.

Although natural and man-made disasters in the past few years have spurred agencies at all levels of government to examine their emergency response plans and address deficiencies, gaping holes still exist, said panelists who took part in a forum sponsored by the American Military University on Feb. 6.

Plans for evacuation of endangered populations are incomplete, explained Patrick McCrory, mayor of Charlotte, NC., and a member of President Bush's Homeland Security Advisory Council.

"We all have great evacuation plans, but we don't know where the people are going," McCrory said.

"We have to have evacuation agreements with neighboring cities and even cities that could be as far as 300 or 400 miles away, where they're willing to take our residents and we're willing to take theirs," McCrory said.

McCrory told UPI that Charlotte has direct experience with the complications of not having evacuation agreements. He explained that people fleeing Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 began arriving in Charlotte with just five-hours warning. The city of Charlotte spent $500,000 per day hosting people who fled north in the wake of Katrina, McCrory said.

"Most cities are not prepared to accommodate an influx of people at such short notice and for an extended period of time," McCrory said.

The effectiveness of evacuation plans depends on the ability of authorities to warn the population of an approaching threat, said David Paulison, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Paulison called for the development of an audible warning system, similar to the type used in areas of the country that are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes and tornados.

Paulison said that a countrywide audible warning system would be just one component of the "robust, quick-activated system" that the United States needs to invest in so that authorities can alert the public about any major threat.

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By Mike Harbert

Evacuations. Everyone in the country has an opinion about what happened with the evacuations for Hurricane Katrina. And there are any number of people or organizations that will offer a list of lessons learned, but I maintain that in most communities these are merely lessons recorded but not learned. Many of these same lessons were “learned” in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, and many of them were learned in countless previous storms. So, what lessons have we learned (recorded) for evacuations? Here’s a quick (though not inclusive) sampling of questions to ask:

First, let’s look at what makes up most evacuation plans – getting people out of town. Pretty simple. But where do they go? What happens when they cross state lines and move into a different jurisdiction? Has anyone coordinated with the “destination” communities? Has anyone instructed their citizens on what they should bring and not bring? Now is the time for them to collect and copy essential documents.

Fuel: We learned with the evacuations brought on by Katrina and Rita that plans have to include ensuring that fueling points are manned and have sufficient reliable and redundant power sources. Likewise, is there a contingency to refuel stranded motorists or man traffic control points? Communities in the hurricane zones have probably addressed this, but how about cities in the heartland?

Moving people without cars: We learned that plans need to include options to evacuate those who may have no other means to leave. We may incorporate school busses and local charter companies into our evacuation plans, but do we have contingency plans for drivers. How would local evacuation plans change if bus drivers, first responders, and key personnel were victims? Or if essential equipment or even evacuees needed decontamination or to be quarantined? Have we coordinated with the destination cities for busses and drivers to come to our communities and pick people up? How does your evacuation plan handle registered sex offenders or those on probation? Has anyone coordinated with the destination cities to identify and receive these folks, or will they just be released to the community?

Receiving evacuees: On the other end, how many cities have an evacuation reception plan? How many people can your community absorb? For how long? Will there be a secondary decontamination capability or quarantine? How will you handle evacuees arriving with no identification? Are you prepared to run criminal background checks on everyone coming in? Evacuation and emergency response plans must be regional, with cooperation extending across jurisdictional lines.

Does anyone outside the EOC know the plan? The mayors and emergency mangers who spoke at the symposium emphasized that communities must be able to handle the first 24-48 hours of any emergency before outside aid arrives. In order for this to happen, individuals and families must be prepared as well – not only to survive the first 48 hours, but to evacuate. This includes having important papers and copies of identification cards ready to go or located with relatives in communities that, hopefully, are outside of the impacted area. This includes having food, water, and other essential supplies to last at least that first 48 hours. Of course, we as individuals have a long way to go as is evidenced by the lines at a grocery store the night before a predicted snow storm.

Having our communities and families prepared for an emergency isn’t the federal government’s responsibly. It’s ours, and it’s the responsibility of our local leaders. It is also our civic duty to hold our local leaders accountable and demand that they keep our communities prepared. If we are prepared, then when something happens it is an emergency. It’s when we aren’t prepared that it becomes a disaster.

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By Mike Harbert

Whenever anyone mentions homeland security funding, the first topics that come up involve interoperability issues, radios, and mobile command centers. While the need to ensure that first responders from different jurisdictions can work together is essential, there are other items that are not as exciting and do not receive the same attention, but are every bit as necessary.

This morning I attended a panel at American Military University’s “Homeland Security: The Ripple Effect” symposium that addressed an area that we never hear about in the news or from the politicians. That is, Mass Fatality Management. We frequently hear about “Mass Casualty” exercises, or how hospitals and first responders will handle hundreds of sick and injured, but no one wants to address the aftermath.

Dealing with dead bodies is not something people want to think about. Politicians would rather deal with hope and recovery than with death and disposal. Most table top disaster exercises end before anyone has to deal with anything more than designating a collection point for fatalities. Maybe someone will think far enough ahead to state that refrigerated trucks will be used, but few will think to figure out where the trucks will come from or how many will be needed.

Here are a few thoughts:

• How will a community handle 500 dead over a period of a week? How about 5,000? Or 50,000?
• If the disaster is WMD related, how and when do we decontaminate the remains? Politicians ensure that first responders are issued PPE and trained, but how about mortuary professionals?

• How does a community identify 5,000 or 50,000 casualties? Are systems in place to handle that amount Ante-Mortem and Post-Mortem data collection? How many phone calls will come into the operations center about missing persons when 50,000 are killed? Can we issue death certificates and process estates without doing the appropriate identification of remains?
  
  
• Can local mortuary services handle those numbers? How many bodies can fit in local refrigerated storage? How many bodies can fit in a 48-foot refrigerated trailer?
  

• Where will they get 5,000 or 50,000 caskets or embalming supplies for that many? Cremation? Consider that a modern crematorium needs 4 to 6 hours to cremate one body. Will religious and cultural issues be considered in final disposition of remains?
  

• What about funerals? If the disaster is a pandemic, will the population be able to gather, or will the risk of transmission be too great?
  

• Over $100 million has been spent identifying and processing the 2749 victims of the World Trade Center attacks. Has your community considered the cost associated with handling ten times that number of dead?

These are just some of the issues that were addressed at this session of the symposium, and they barely scratched the surface. There is some debate as to whether this is a medical issue or a logistical issue. From my viewpoint, it’s a leadership issue.

It’s time for our politicians and leadership to begin addressing these issues. It’s time that the table top exercises continue beyond first response and relief operations and address these unpopular but necessary issues.

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By John A. Cote MSSI, CPP

February 17, 2003. An Egyptian cleric, Hassan Mustafa Osama Nasr, (also known as Abu Omar) was on his way to daily prayer, walking along the Via Guerzoni in Milan when he was allegedly grabbed by two men, sprayed with a chemical substance in the face and then bundled into a white van which took him to Aviano Air Base, a joint American- Italian base.

According to Nasr, he was eventually taken home to Cairo, Egypt by his kidnappers (CIA and Italian Service agents) where he was arrested and allegedly subjected to electric shock, hung upside down, exposed to extreme temperatures and loud noise affecting his hearing.

Although the U.S. government has neither confirmed or denied playing a role in the kidnapping, this type of event is called extraordinary rendition.

The CIA group which executed this mission, in my mind, completely failed to follow any sense of true tradecraft whatsoever. Why do I say that?

1. More than 20 CIA agents (including the head of the CIA Milan substation) were named and indicted in a kidnapping case in Italy.
2. Evidence of detailed interrogations exists.
3. Telephone transcripts and records have been found.
4. Intercepted telephone conversations.
5. Long trail of paper and electronic evidence against the CIA operatives.
6. Operatives gave their own personal frequent flyers numbers to the desk clerks in hotels.
7. Made several phone calls from their hotel rooms on insecure phones.

These operatives were members of a covert CIA team sent to execute an extraordinary rendition. Yet, these operatives were methodically tracked and monitored by the Italian police during there stay in Italy. What are we teaching our new breed of covert operative these days?

Could it be we have cut so much meat from the agency that we have lost institutional knowledge on how real spies work. This case does not bode well for our “ War on Terror”.

Many seasoned agency personnel have left the company due to a hostile environment in the intelligence community. This case is a prime example of what can happen when you loose that precious commodity called institutional knowledge. Information and experience handed down by people who have used the methods in the field and are teaching from their own experience not just what they learn from a book, this is institutional knowledge.

In another article on intelligence I have stressed the need for good Human intelligence (HUMINT) this case shows you what happens when we have poor HUMINT -specifically poor tradecraft.

All the operatives named in the indictment should have known better than to do the things they did so cavalierly. It almost seems that they just felt that they were CIA and nothing could possibly touch them. This could be a sign that we are cranking out operatives much too fast in order to beef up our numbers in the field.

Whatever the case, the Director of Operations of the CIA needs to take a long hard look at the training going on there. We can’t afford fighting the terrorist on two fronts, in the field of battle and in the limelight of the press.

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In Homeland Security is an American Military Univeristy(AMU) sponsored blog that features analysis and commentary on issues in homeland security today.

A network of industry experts will cover topics dealing with terrorism research, emergency preparedness and response, border security, military intelligence, law enforcement and national security.

Our intended audience is comprised of the expert-level policymakers as well as the more broad and general audience of people interested in homeland security. The blog is non-partisan and non-commercial.

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