By Shelley Smith

From Homeland Security the American Forces Press Service article Coast Guard Essential to Victory Against Terrorism, May 21, 2008, by Gerry J. Gilmore, denotes Vice President Cheney speaking to members of the Class of 2008, at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. “The Coast Guard will be essential to the fight, and the Coast Guard will be essential to victory against terrorism.” Cheney said. “In its five years as part of DHS, the Coast Guard has undertaken the largest commitment at port security operation since the Second World War.”

The U.S. Coast Guard as part of Homeland Security has broad responsibilities along with other agencies for safeguarding the U.S. maritime domain and whose multi-mission functions are defined as; maritime safety and mobility, national defense, law enforcement, environmental protection, and humanitarian response.

However, while achieving great strides in some areas, the United States Coast Guard 2008 Budget in Brief and Performance Report issued February, 2007, exhibited the Coast Guard did not meet its target of 100 percent defense readiness last year. This was attributed to declining defense readiness targets among; major cutters, PSU readiness was below standard, SORTS5 readiness, full training readiness, and staffing shortages.

But, even though there is not full readiness in place in some areas, before the terrorism attack of 9/11, a good example of Coast Guard crew’s resilience and efforts in the battle against transnational crime, is demonstrated by a past and personal experience during 1989, as denoted by Anthony M. Davis, author of the recent book Terrorism and the Maritime Transportation System.

“Back in '89 I was onboard the US Coast Guard Cutter Morgenthau. We were doing an Alaskan Fisheries Patrol in the Bering Sea when we were brought in to take down the "Red Fin", a Taiwanese fishing boat attempting to set up an illegal fishing scheme where they would pay $1 Million. The problem for them was that they paid the cash to undercover agents.” This event was further published in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, SeattlePi.com.

A report prepared by the Office of Naval Intelligence, Threats and Challenges to Maritime Security 2020, March 1, 1999, describes an increase in growth and interdependence among states, increased economic integration of nations, and population growth that will increase maritime activities and a substantial increase in illegal and illicit activities. With the oceans being a primary source for food, transportation, and energy, there will be an increase in need for regulations among the nations and international cooperation of fisheries management and other to protect the seas and oceans to be able to defuse conflicts that may arise.

The United States is a coastal nation state and illicit drug and other types of criminal trafficking have been a constant that are projected to continue into the future. Container shipping, density of shipments, and regional transportation systems are being taken advantage of as criminals and terrorists devise new methods of using the system to further spread and speedup their illicit products and to continue to facilitate money laundering activities. As violence and open conflicts continues, so will the desire, demand, and competition for small and large arms.

Despite law enforcement and Coast Guard growing capabilities, illicit drug and weapons trafficking will continue into the future. However, the Coast Guard gained an advantage by being able to increase vessel inspections of towing vessels and barges by way of the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2004. It provides authority to the Coast Guard to establish regulations and standards, increasing the vessels subject to Coast Guard inspection by 40 percent.

One of the many hats worn by Davis had been as Chief of Intelligence with the Coast Guard in Mobile, AL. He expressed the importance of citizen involvement during a radio interview with a nationally-syndicated radio program. “The common citizen out there, they know the area, they know the waterways, they know when something is awry and they can report it”, he said.

With so many stakeholders; state, local and federal officials, merchant mariners, offshore industry personnel, ferry operators, recreational boaters, sport and commercial fishers and other, the Coast Guard have conducted outreach programs to contact, educate and distribute literature to millions of people. They have educated and made the public aware of invasive species that can create tremendous damage to U.S. agriculture, forests, and the marine environment through shipping volume and trade. They have responded and proved effective during natural and environmental disasters.

However, even if the number of incidents and volume of waste dumping in the ocean and other marine environments becomes more strictly regulated, catching dumping violators will continue to remain another enforcement challenge until the public becomes more involved in reporting these and other acts as national security watchers to help safeguard the nation that they cohabitant and reside in.

About the Author

Shelley Smith is an expert in analysis and research on varied national and international issues, homeland security, terrorism and counterterrorism, law enforcement, criminal justice systems, and other. Smith has an A.S. in Criminal Justice with Honors and a B.A in Intelligence Studies. She is currently pursuing an M.A. in Intelligence Studies Capstone with a concentration in Middle Eastern Studies at American Military University.

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The US Department of Homeland Security has designated September as National Preparedness Month. Along with other agencies and organizations, the DHS is encouraging individuals, families, organizations, and businesses to take stock of their preparedness for a disaster, and offers many tips to stay prepared.

This year the focus of NPM is to encourage citizens to take important preparedness steps:

• Get a Kit
• Make a Plan
• Be Informed
• Get Involved

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By Jenni Hesterman

The Department of Defense will soon take on a new role: countering the expanding drug trade in Western Africa. The new initiative is outlined in the FY 2009 defense authorization bill, House Resolution (H.R.) 5658. Section 1024 of the bill provides funding for counter-drug equipment in the Republic of Ghana, the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, and the Republic of Senegal, in addition to the nations of the Western Hemisphere, central Asia, and the Caucasus. Additionally, the Senate Armed Services Committee is concerned by the rapid growth of illegal drug trade in the region and has directed the State Department and the Department of Defense to jointly prepare "a region-wide, counter drug plan for Africa, with a special emphasis on West Africa and the Maghreb."

Since 2003, 99% of all drugs seized in Africa have been found in the West. The volume seized has increased 5 fold in the last few years, with 5.6 tons collected in the first 9 months of 2007 alone. Agencies involved in counterdrug operations acknowledge the situation in several Western African countries is rapidly deteriorating. The State Department's 2008 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report states that "Ghana has become a significant transshipment point for illegal drugs, particularly cocaine from South America, as well as heroin from Southeast and Southwest Asia." Additionally, DoD has identified Ghana as its "anchor country" for emerging counternarcotics efforts through AFRICOM.

But perhaps the greatest threat lies in Guinea-Bissau, which the UN has dubbed Africa's first "narcostate". With a land mass equal to the state of Maryland, Guinea-Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with two-thirds of its 1.5M population living below the poverty line. It is attractive to traffickers due to its unpatrolled coastline, numerous hidden bays, close proximity to several other declining countries and weak rule of law. In a country with no main source of electricity, the police force has no cars, radios and few weapons. The military is thought to be complicit in the drug trade; last year, two military personnel were detained along with a civilian in a vehicle carrying 635 kilos of cocaine. The army secured the soldiers' release and they have not been charged.

Trafficking and unrest is not new to Guinea-Bissau; it was first known as the "Slave Coast" when African rulers prospered from the slave trade. After centuries of Portuguese rule, a para-military group emerged and, aided by arms and supplies from Cuba, Russia, and China, fought a protracted war to eventually win the country's independence in 1974. Years of unrest ensued; thousands of citizens who had fought alongside the Portuguese against the rebels were slaughtered and buried in unmarked graves. The country has subsequently faced bloody uprisings, conflicts and even a complete economic collapse. The U.S. and Britain's official diplomatic presence pulled out of the country in 1998 during a civil war, moving to nearby Senegal.

In just 3 years since the first cocaine was brought to its shores, Guinea-Bissau has become a major hub for drug trafficking, bringing with it new prosperity. In a country where the average income is $1 a day, Columbians are regularly seen driving expensive SUVs and sports cars, and living in new Spanish style villas with swimming pools and armed guards in the countryside. In fact, officials believe there are more than 60 Columbian drug traffickers currently operating in Guinea-Bissau.

Europe, primarily Spain and Portugal, is the main recipient of cocaine from West Africa. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), a quarter of all cocaine consumed in Western Europe is trafficked through West Africa, and it is estimated that one ton of pure Colombian cocaine leaves the country daily for Europe. The Executive Director of UNODC, Antonio Maria Costa, believes the impact on Africa of Europe's cocaine habit is an echo of that of slavery. "In the 19th century, Europe's hunger for slaves devastated West Africa. Two hundred years later, its growing appetite for cocaine could do the same."

The U.S. has been impacted in a slightly different way: DEA and UNODC report that Guinea Bissau and other West African countries are being targeted by Asian and African cartels trafficking heroin across the Atlantic in the opposite direction, to the US. Last year, the DEA and police in Chicago tracked nine West Africans who had moved heroin originating in Southeast Asia through various West African countries, markedly Guinea-Bissau, to the central U.S.

Drug trafficking is a transnational threat that directly impacts our national security, and that of our allies. Factor in terrorists, who often extract profit from drug trade, and use established trafficking routes to move money, people and equipment--and the threat becomes alarming.

The debate about whether DoD is the right agency to lead the effort in West Africa is moot; the point is that all Federal agencies engaged in counterdrug, counterintelligence and counterterrorism must work together to assess the issue, contain the threat, and together, push the traffickers out of the region before the threat and instability spread any further on the continent.

About the Author
Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.

You may contact the author at JLHBlog@aol.com.

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The risk for terrorist attack is plotted using data from the study. Red identifies urban areas of highest risk, yellow is medium risk, and green is lowest risk. (Credit: Walter W. Piegorsch)

By Jenni Hesterman

A leading statistician and environmental risk expert has published a landmark report that rates 132 U.S. cities on their vulnerability to terrorist attack using a newly-developed statistical method. In the study, entitled “Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents”, Dr. Walter W. Piegorsch, a professor at the University of Arizona, calculated the susceptibility of urban areas to attack by assessing socio-economic factors, natural and environmental hazards, and the city’s infrastructure. Critical industries, ports, railroads, bridges, tunnels, water/sewage systems and the age and fragility of the existing infrastructure were also considerations. Demographics were evaluated, as a way to predict the impact of an attack on the populace, and to assess the likely response of residents.

Finally, the team analyzed and factored in historical data from the Terrorism Knowledge Base and the Global Terrorism Data Base. The research yielded over 1,000 unique terrorist-related incidents in the targeted cities, spanning a 30 year period.

The study, sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security, yielded some unanticipated results. For instance, Boise, Idaho was ranked 10th, primarily due to its position near a major dam and vulnerability for major forest fires. City officials acknowledged surprise at the rating, and initiated contact with both Piegorsch and the state’s Homeland Security officials for clarification on the study and its results.

The overall results show that the eastern and southern seaboards of the U.S. are at greatest risk, and also indicate a large swath of vulnerability from Texas to Ohio. The cities that scored highest overall were New Orleans, LA followed by Baton Rouge, LA; Charleston, SC; Norfolk, VA; the New York/Newark area; and Washington, D.C.

As with all studies, particularly those engaged in predictive analysis, some factors had greater weight than others. For instance, Piegorsch readily admits that "Nuclear power plants and military facilities did not come up as high risk in our analysis". Although this assessment runs contrary to many other studies and theories on potential terrorist targets, the study’s results are certainly worthy of further review and analysis. A follow on study could assess whether federal funding is going to the right cities for the right programs, to maximize resource allocation. Local authorities in the cities identified might use the results as a springboard to initiate specialized training, or augment their Critical Infrastructure Protection program. Business owners may want to reassess their insurance coverage; many large firms now offer specialized policies, such as AIG which recommends Property Terrorism Insurance to cover owners in the event of loss or damage due to terrorist attacks.

In the concluding paragraph of the study, the author states that the bottom line is that “place matters”. But Piegorsch wants the public to remember that the report doesn't try to predict where terrorists might attack. "It's not probability of being a target," he said. "It's vulnerability."

Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.

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