By Jenni Hesterman

On May 6th, Department of Justice leaders outlined their roles and strategies as related to combating drugs and gun trafficking at/around the U.S. border with Mexico to the House's Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security. The hearing's title encapsulates the problem at hand: "Escalating Violence in Mexico and the Southwest Border as a Result of the Illicit Drug Trade".

The opening statement by the Chairman, Congressman Smith (R-TX), contained some conventional wisdom such as the escalation in violence is due to the Mexican government's crackdown on cartels in the country. However, he discussed the Mexican perspective on the problem: according to their government, 64% of drug related violence is concentrated in just 3 states in Mexico, where only 15% of their population lives. Also, the Mexican government points out the murder rate is Juarez is 6 times lower than Columbia's murder rate in the 90s. Perhaps the underlying message was that Mexico considers this a serious problem, but not a crisis as the U.S. believes.

In his opening statement, Congressman Gohmert (R-TX) stated the Sinaloa cartel is now authorizing use of force to protect drug operations in the U.S. He also discussed that Forbes Magazine's list of billionaires now includes Joaquin Guzman Loera, head of the Sinaloa cartel and one of the most wanted men in Mexico. He also emphasized that Cartel violence in Mexico goes hand-in-hand with demand and use in the U.S.

ATF's representative William Hoover, Acting Deputy Director, expressed his agency's concern over increasing use of explosives, such as grenades, in cartel violence. He discussed ATF's Project Gunrunner which includes 148 ATF agents stationed along the border to investigate gun trafficking issues. He mentioned that over 100 extra ATF agents were just sent to Houston field division to support a push to stop the movement of guns across the border. Mr. Hoover also mentioned ATF's role in EPIC - the El Paso Intelligence Center. EPIC was established in 1974 to address drug issues at and around the border. Led by the DEA, EPIC has a staff of 300 personnel and liaison officers from 15 agencies.

DEA's representative, Anthony P. Placido, Assistant Administrator for Intelligence shared some interesting data about the drugs themselves. In 2008, estimated worldwide production of cocaine ranged between 901-1082 metric tons, with 528 metric tons seized, around 48%. Mexican specific data: 18% of heroin produced and 21% of marijuana produced was seized. Mr. Placido also discussed shifts in price and purity of cocaine. When scarcity occurs, there is a noticeable fluxuation in purity and traffickers add fillers such as sugar and lactose to the product. When drugs are scarce, the price goes up but purity drops - DEA witnessed a 35% drop in the purity of cocaine, a distinct indicator of decreased availability.

Congressman Poe (R-TX) mentioned a "turf battle" between federal agencies working border issues. He specifically asked the DEA rep if ICE should have more responsibility in drug investigations - the answer was that if ICE worked within the rules, they would welcome their assistance. Ms. Ayala, the ICE representative at the hearing, stated an increase of 95 agents to SW border, an increase in 50% of ICE attaché personnel, a quadrupling of border liaison officers, and an increase of 3 times the intelligence commitment to the border.

CW Jackson Lee (D-TX) addressed her legislation, H.R. 1900 - Border Security, Cooperation, and Act Now Drug War Prevention Act. This law would allow governors to declare emergencies and seek from DHS and DOJ emergency increase in border patrol, DEA, ATF agents and equipment. It also creates task force with ATF, DEA, and Border Patrol and monitors their liaising with local law enforcement.

When asked his thoughts on her legislation, the DEA rep responded this is a much larger problem than the border with cartel- related problems now spread throughout the U.S. He stated that a focused attack on the criminal organization itself vice geographically focused efforts is a better answer. He also mentioned that intra-cartel violence has always happened, however, there is a new and disturbing trend - cartels lashing out against the Mexican government. He cited concern in DOJ about their potential to also lash out against our government.

Some generally agreed upon issues in the hearing:

- In 2008, violence in the cartel fight for trafficking routes left over 6,000 dead, including 500 police and soldiers. More than 1,000 have already killed in early 2009.

- The violence is gruesome - it is meant to terrorize communities and force the Mexican government to abandon its efforts to shut down the cartels.

- There is kidnapping for ransom escalation within the U.S. and related to the cartels.

- Corruption is a problem in Mexico and continues to fuel their internal problems and prevent them from achieving their goals.

- Mexico needs to protect the border from guns and money heading south.

- Drugs and guns go hand-in-hand: firearms are used to protect routes, firearms are traded for drugs; firearms offered to raise cash.

- Bulk cash smuggling at the border must be addressed - cutting off cartel funding is critical.

The webcast of this hearing is available online.

(Note: the author's article "Mexican Drug War Spilling Across the Border" is the cover story in the June/July issue of The Counter Terrorist Magazine)

About the Author

Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism expert. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies and is a contributing editor for The Counter Terrorist Magazine. You may contact the author at JLHBlog@aol.com.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Miller J. Wilson

Over the past few weeks we have seen the general public's concern about the H1N1 virus go from the verge of panic to almost nothing. The reason for this is that despite the increasing number of cases reported there have been few deaths outside of Mexico and so the average person is beginning to believe that the worst is over, but is it?

The sad thing is that we don't know for sure how deadly the H1N1 virus will become until September or October when the next flu season starts. In fact, if we look at the chart for the 1918 H1N1 pandemic deaths in the US we can see that similar conditions existed about this time when it first began.



Now lets look at the numbers for the current H1N1 virus for both the entire world and where the deaths have occurred. The numbers were taken from the World Health Organizations H1N1 update on 05/14/2009 and so are current at the time of this article.

World Wide H1N1 Confirmed Cases and Deaths (confirmed cases include deaths):
Cases: 6,497 (100% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 65 (100% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 1%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 10

United States:
Cases: 3,352 (51.59%% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 3 (4% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0.089%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 0.89

Mexico:
Cases: 2,446 (37.65% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 60 (92.3% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 2.5%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 25

Canada:
Cases: 389 (5.99% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 1 (1.54% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0.25%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 2.57 (Projected from current death:case ratio)

Costa Rica:
Cases: 8 (0.12% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 1 (1.54% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 12.5%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 125 (Projected from current death:case ratio)

All other locations:
Cases: 302 (4.65% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 0 (0% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 0

Now if we look at the current numbers, especially the deaths per 1,000 cases in both US and total for the world, we see that we are at about the same numbers that the 1918 H1N1 had around June 29, 1918 and that after a quick spike in cases and deaths around the middle of July it disappeared only to return with 5-6 times the deaths in September 1918. It is because of this that epidemiologists that specialize in the influenza are still concerned about where this H1N1 virus will lead.

So what will this H1N1 virus do? The answer to that question is something that we do not know but there are few possibilities which follow:

• It could become like the 1976 swine flu and simply do nothing
• It could recombine with the common flu and become resistant to anti-virals (Tamiflu) but also become only a nuisance.
• It could follow the path of the 1918 pandemic (which it shows signs of doing) and infect 30% of the world population and kill 120 million people.
• It could genetically recombine with the H5N1 Avian Flu (60% mortality rate), infect 30% of the world population and kill 1.2 Billion people.

As you can see the biggest worry is that while H1N1 spreads around Asia, where it is now, or other regions where the H5N1 is found in humans it will have a chance to genetically recombine. This recombinant strain could lose its high communicability rate gain a high mortality rate and become able to pass human to human. Or it could keep its high communicability rate, gain H5N1's resistance to anti-virals (Tamiflu,) and gain the high mortality rate of H5N1 which is 60% and kill 1,000,000,000+ (1 Billion+) people around the world.

Now I know all this can seem scary, especially when you look at the numbers alone, but that is not my intention. For the first time in history we are able to track the H1N1 virus in real time and so will be able to see how it mutates. This will allow us to prepare better and allow developed nations to reduce the number of deaths. Now if this does not help alleviate your fears we can put the current situation into perspective by comparing the numbers for the H1N1 virus in the US with the annual numbers for the seasonal flu in the US. According to the Center for Disease control the seasonal flu infects 15,202,986-60,811,945 people or 5%-20% of the total population. Out of these 200,000 people or 0.3%-1.3% of the total cases are hospitalized and 36,000 people or 0.06%-0.2% die. This equals 0.6-2 deaths per 1,000 cases. As you can see the current numbers for the H1N1 virus and the seasonal flu are about the same as far as mortality rate.

Now that you are informed I hope that you are better able to put everything in perspective so that you can prepare for the worst without worrying.

Miller J. Wilson is currently an AMU student working on his BA in Intelligence Operations. In addition he is a volunteer for his local Medical Reserve Corps and Citizens Emergency Response Team (CERT).

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Miller J. Wilson

One of the best ways to fight Jihad is to prevent the radicalization of people. If you have read any of the RAND reports then you will know that Jihadists are pretty much self- recruited after they have become radicalized.

The way this happens is when a person or group is isolated from the main stream of society. This isolation leads to feelings of despair, loss of control, and anger towards the main stream society. When this happens the individual or group begins looking for a cause that they can be apart of that they feel is bigger than them. Once they find the cause they become fanatics in order to prove their "true" belief surround themselves with people and information that justifies their fanaticism. Once they are surrounded by only one view they lose the diverse social reference which keeps unsocial behavior in check in place of a single social reference that encourages unsocial behavior. Without having social peers to tell them that certain ideas and beliefs are unacceptable they grow in their fanaticism which in turn isolates them further from main stream society and into a vicious cycle of growing radicalization and social isolation.

So how does that information help us to prevent radicalization? The answer is that we must make great effort to help people assimilate into the main stream culture in a way that they do not feel that they are giving up their culture. One of the reasons Europe is having problems with radical Muslims is that they are failing to assimilate these groups into their society. The US is facing a similar problem with both legal and illegal aliens from Mexico and South America as well as a growing Muslim population. Both these groups isolate themselves from the main stream culture of the US and concentrate into neighborhoods where they are the majority. They seldom socialize with people from outside these neighborhoods and so have their social reference limited to that neighborhoods ideas and lacking the mainstream US social reference. By taking the lead and having a group socialize with an individual that individual will gain the main stream social reference of the US and the feeling of isolation will be lessened which in turn will aid in assimilation. One of the ways in which this can be done is to ask questions about the other culture and answer questions about your culture. This aids in the assimilation process further by educating the person about US culture without them feeling like they have to give up their culture.

In the end radicalization will still exist either because some people come here after being radicalized in their own country and other reasons but we can limit the number of people being radicalized. By limiting the number of people being radicalized we limit the number of potential threats and increase the number of productive people in the US. This prevents an increase in potential attacks which makes our lives safer. Because of this it is vital to the entire US population and our culture that we do everything we can to lessen the isolation of people and aid their assimilation into US society. After all "an ounce of preventions is worth more than a pound of cure."

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Miller J. Wilson

For everyone out there that keeps screaming for Guantanamo Bay to be shut down and that our interrorgation tactics, including waterboarding, are ineffective here are 8 plots that have been stopped because of Guantanamo Bay and our interrorgation tactics.

1-The West Coast Airliner Plot: In mid-2002, thanks to leads from a variety of detainees, the US disrupted a plot by 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaykh Mohamad (KSM) to attack targets on the West Coast of the United States using hijacked airplanes.

2- The 2004 UK Urban Targets Plot: In mid-2004, the US and its counterterrorism partners disrupted a plot that involved attacking urban targets in the United Kingdom with explosive devices. Some of the key leads to these plotters came from detainees.

3- The 2003 Karachi Plot: In the spring of 2003, the US and a partner detained key al-Qa'ida operatives who were in the advanced stages of plotting an attack against several targets in Karach, Pakistan that would have killed hundres of innocent men, women, and children.

4- The Heathrow Airport Plot: In 2003, the US and several parners--acting on information from several detainess--disrupted a plot to attack Heathrow Aiport using hijacked commercial airliners. KSM and his network were behind the planning for this attack.

5- The 2002 Arabian Gulf Shipping Plot: In late 2002 and early 2003, the work of the US and parner nations to detain two senior al-Qa'ida operatives thwarted these operatives' plot to attack ships in the Arabian Gulf.

6- The Straits of Hormuz Plot: One of the Arabian Gulf shipping plotters was also working on a plot to attack ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. His detention disrupted this plot.

7- The Tall Buildings Plot: Working with information from detainees, the US disrupted a plot to blow up tall buildings in the United States. KSM later described how he had directed operatives to ensure the buildings wer high enough to prevent the people trapped above from escaping out of the windows, thus ensuring their deaths from smok inhalation.

8- Camp Lemonier Plot: In early 2004. shortly after his capture, al-Qa'ida facilitator Goled Hassan Dourad revealed that in mid-2003 al-Qa'ida East Africa cell leader Abu Talha al-Sudani sent him from Mogadishu to Djibouti to case the US Marine base at Camp Lemonier, as part of a plot to send suicide bombers with a truck bomb into the base. His information--including identifying operatives associated with the plot--helped us to enhance the security at the camp.

In addition to these plots our interrorgation techniques and detainee program, including waterboarding and Guantamano Bay, allowed us to identify and capture Khalid Shaykh Mohammad as well as many other top terrorist leaders belonging to al-Qa'ida and other organizations. But don't just take my report you can read the report on the C-SPAN website by clicking HERE.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)