By William Tucker

When the Soviet Union fell apart many nations that had not known independence in over a century were forced to create political and economic systems without a connection to Moscow. The areas that suffered the most were the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the redrawing of borders under the reign of Josef Stalin. Stalin's purpose was to mix ethno linguistic groups thus preventing any one group from becoming too powerful and causing trouble, but without the power of the red army maintaining stability an outbreak of war in several regions was inevitable. The wars of mid 1990's that occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a prime example of this.

In recent years Turkey and Armenia have been engaged in normalization talks, but this move has made Azerbaijan nervous. The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan began shortly after ethnic Armenians in the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh passed legislation declaring their intention to unite with Armenia. The government in Yerevan pledged their assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh and a wider war between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. Although the war was ended via a cease fire brokered by Russia in 1994 the dispute was never settled.

Lately Azerbaijan has focused on upgrading their military and is threatening war to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but Russia and Turkey will do everything they can to prevent another conflict. The Caucasus is a sensitive area for Russia specifically and has been used as a lever to cause problems for Moscow in the past. With Russia pushing back against western interests in several areas it is not a stretch to expect the same to happen again. In any case activities in the Caucasus bear closer scrutiny.

Map credit: U.S. State Department

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From the Washington Regional Threat and Analysis Center:

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) National Security Analysis & Intelligence Summer Seminar (NSAISS) is now accepting applications for a two week summer program in Washington, DC. NSAISS addresses critical national priorities in the U.S. Intelligence Community and offers participants the chance to study with currently serving intelligence analysts and other professionals through a curriculum of lectures, case studies, practice simulations, site visits to agencies, and other forms of exploration of intelligence disciplines, methodologies and substantive topics under the direction of the Intelligence Community, academia and private sector experts. Selected participants will receive a one time, $500 stipend; accommodations, transportation to/from Washington D.C. and to all program activities; and temporary "Secret" level security clearance for the duration of the seminar. Training is July 11-23, 2010. Call for applications. The application deadline is March 7, 2010. For more information about the program, eligibility and application visit http://www.orau.gov/nsaiss Please share this information with others at your academic institution/organization. http://www.dni.gov/cae/#2010Program

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By William Tucker

In the last two weeks the U.S. has witnessed two more school shootings. These attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.

The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, "an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims." Furthermore DHS states:

Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.

It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or every school, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places - for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same so it is important to tailor your approach to your location.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters

Training Book

Pocket Guide

Poster

Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan.

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By William Tucker

It has been revealed that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, turned on his father's organization and spied for Israel. According to the Times Online, the junior Yousef had become disenfranchised with the spate of suicide bombings and offered his services to Shin Bet. According to Israeli sources, the intelligence Yousef provided put several members of Hamas in jail and prevented numerous suicide bombings. Much of Yousef's exploits will be detailed in his forthcoming book, Son of Hamas, which should help shed some light on the inner workings of Hamas.

Getting people inside terrorist or criminal organizations is not an easy task and sometimes, though most intelligence officers won't admit it, luck plays a crucial role. This is very much evident in Yousef's case. From a counterintelligence standpoint it seems that Hamas's internal security suffered a major failure and I for one am curious as to why.

The Times Online article is here

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By William Tucker

The assassination of Hamas senior commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh has made international headlines. In this article I explain the rationale behind the killing as well as an abbreviated timeline of events.

I don't typically write on every assassination of a terrorist leader as details are often sketchy and speculation in the press is widespread. This does not mean, however, that I refrain from discussing the more notable drone strikes in Pakistan. The reason for this is simple, the means and methods of the drone strikes are known as is the party responsible. This is not always the case for covert operations, but the case of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh is different. I don't have all the facts, but I have managed to amass enough information to discuss the assassination intelligently.

Assassinations are often believed to be used solely for leadership decapitation purposes, but while this does happen contemporary studies show that nation-states often have other plans in mind. But before we discuss the al-Mabhouh assassination it's useful to provide an event that is historically analogous, such as that of Imad Mughniyeh, to prove this point. Mughniyeh was the Hezbollah mastermind behind the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon and several other terrorist acts across the globe. As such, Mughniyeh was wanted by several governments and was actively sought by intelligence services for years. Mughniyeh's time came to an end via a bomb placed in the headrest of his vehicle while in Damascus. To be sure, the assassination of Mughniyeh did damage the external operations of Hezbollah, but did not destroy the organization. Then again it wasn't expected to.

Several months before the Mughniyeh assassination, the Israeli Air Force struck and destroyed a nuclear facility being constructed in Northern Syria. These two incidents, neither of which was minor, put Syria on the defensive. Shortly thereafter, Israel and Syria began peace talks brokered by both Turkey and the U.S. While I don't have evidence linking the airstrike and assassination to the peace talks the timing is compelling. This brings us back to the al-Mabhouh assassination.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas and was currently serving as senior commander in charge of armaments. One of his recent claims to fame was orchestrating the movement of armaments and munitions from Iran, through Sudan to the Siani Peninsula, and finally through underground tunnels into the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis, finally wise to this new method of arms smuggling, launched an airstrike on March 26, 2009 against an arms convoy in Northern Sudan thus disrupting any further use of these transit points. For the Israelis this was incredibly important. After Operation Cast Lead, Israel wanted to prevent any chance Hamas had at rearming and threatening Israeli civilians in the future. This effort against arms smuggling has had a good success rate and has kept Hamas silent. The next logical step would be to remove the arms smuggler, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Just as the Mughniyeh assassination was meant to force an issue with Syria the al-Mabhouh killing was meant to hinder arms smuggling into Gaza and send a message to Iran. Here are the known operational details of the al-Mabhouh assassination available in the open source:

• Al-Mabhouh arrives in Dubai via Emirates flight AQ 912 on January 19, 2010.


• He then arrives at the Hotel Bustan Rotana at 4:30 p.m. then departed for the Iranian embassy a half hour later. At this time surveillance conducted by the assassination team convergences on the Hotel and sets up shop.


• Al-Mabhouh returns from the embassy to the hotel, room 130, at approximately 9:00 p.m.


• According to Dubai police al-Mabhouh answered a knock on his door shortly after returning and was hit with a stun gun, strangled and injected with a poison.


• Al-Mabhouh's body was discovered in the early morning of January 20 after his wife notified Hamas officials she couldn't reach him by phone.

While officials in Dubai were quick to point fingers at the Israeli Mossad it is clear that others were involved by the resulting arrests. Hamas has been undergoing an internal struggle and the arrests of Nahro Massoud and Mahmoud Nasser, both of Hamas, show that the assassination team may have had inside help (one Kuwaiti newspaper claims that Nahro Massoud was with al-Mabhouh near the time of his death). In the wake of these and other arrests there are indications that Dubai may want to end this investigation quickly as the Dubai police have enlisted the help of the Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence services to aid in the investigation. On its face it appears that Dubai has asked for assistance from Egypt and Jordan because it needs help in the intelligence realm, however, al-Mabhouh was wanted by both nations and they hardly want to pursue the case any further meaning the investigation is likely to hit a wall. In Europe there are some nations upset over the use of EU member passports as cover for the assassination team and not the actual assassination itself, but this too is likely to slowly fade away (two British newspapers are actually claiming that the Israelis notified the UK that this was going to happen beforehand). In the near term we can expect to see continued media coverage, but Israel has done what it set out to do - Iran, and their proxies, have been put on notice.

Photo credits: 1. Jerusalem Post 2. Dubai Police

London Times Slide Show of Events

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By William Tucker

Fox News is reporting that Mulvi Kabir, the former Taliban governor in Afghanistan's Nangahar Province, and a key figure in the Taliban regime was recently captured in Pakistan. Coming on the heels of the capture of Mullah Baradar one could reasonably assume that Baradar has given up information on the location of several leading Taliban members. In fact, in the last week several high ranking Taliban have been captured. Additionally, Muhammad Haqqani, the son of the infamous Jalaluddin Haqqani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in North Wazirastan. If the capture of Baradar is directly responsible for the flurry of recent activity then we it would follow that the more recent arrests could impact operations at the lower end of the spectrum thus making U.S efforts in Afghanistan more fruitful.

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By William Tucker

On Thursday, the IAEA issued another report on Iran's nuclear program which contained language that is far harsher than anything released in the recent past. This most recent report confirms Iranian claims of enriching uranium to 20 percent and also states that Iran is working on a missile delivery system. The suspicion of modifying a missile with the intention of carrying a nuclear payload was first leaked to the Associated Press back in October 2009, but this is the first time the IAEA has come out and publicly confirmed that finding. Now that these findings have been made public we can expect many of the larger western nations to push for increased sanctions in the very near future, but there is still no guarantee that they will pass the UN Security council.

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By William Tucker

Early this morning a software engineer disgruntled with the IRS set his house ablaze before flying his personal plane into the Echelon building in Austin, Texas. The Echelon building is host to several federal agencies in the Austin area, but in this case the target was the Internal Revenue Service. Incidents involving people expressing discontent with employers or authority figures through violence is hardly new; however it does show that some people will use extraordinary measures to drive home their point. In the U.S., situations involving workplace attacks using firearms has nearly become commonplace, but methods are available to mitigate these occurrences.

While it may seem impossible to predict the use of aircraft in the type of violent attack that was witnessed today, it could have been prevented. An individual making the final decision to resort to violence against their coworkers, or even the government, exhibit behavioral signs that indicate something is wrong. We often tend to focus too much on the style of violence while ignoring the process. In the coming days we will see, as we always do, that warning signs were either ignored or not taken seriously. You don't have to be a psychologist or work in law enforcement to report suspicious behavior, and you can never be wrong in doing so.

Photo credit: Reuters

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By Irvin Varkonyi, CSCP, P.Log.

Without risk, there is no reward. Today, risks are much more complex for both passenger travel and freight movement as we function in a global economy where the uncertainties of disruptive events must be factored into strategic planning. Successful companies must find the right balance of risk and operational efficiency to optimize their financial performance and sustain their operations to benefit shareholders, customers and employees.

This builds resilience which is the ability of an organization to mitigate the negative impacts of an event. Therefore a company cannot ignore the risk of deciding to off-shore its production to a hurricane prone region just because labor costs are cheap. Nor can a company avoid potential catastrophes by hunkering down and incurring unsustainable costs. Whether the disruptive event is a hurricane, a hazardous material spillage on a major highway or a potential act of terrorism, companies must plan for the unexpected.

This article from CNS Air Cargo Focus Magazine considers two major factors for a business to consider in the face of disruptive events:

1. Understand the components in the trade-off among risk and efficiency - Develop metrics by which the enterprise can measure risk and reward. These metrics should also factor the impact of risk on efficiency, i.e. productivity of labor, reliability of transportation, etc.

2. Understand the concept of Risk Management within Enterprise Operations - Risk is different from threats. Risk involves the possibility of a disruptive event. Threats are made up of the probability of an event and the critical impact of the event if it occurs. The enterprise must consider what risks it takes and have the ability to measure the potential threats which such risks may create.

Read the full article here. Go to page 10.

Varkonyi is currently a program manager for transportation and logistic management degree programs at American Military University (AMU). At AMU, he also serves as an adjunct professor.

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By William Tucker

Authors note: I wrote this article in early October 2009. My purpose in posting it here is to give some background information on the Iranian nuclear standoff. As things move to a crisis point I will post relevant information here.

The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.

In a recent address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Obama stated that U.S. intelligence had been monitoring the construction of another uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom, Iran. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, the existence of this nuclear facility was known as far back as 2006 - one year before the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate upon which my previous analysis was based. The construction of an enrichment facility on a military installation hardly fits into a civil nuclear program and is not an occurrence that one could easily over look when drafting an NIE. The bottom line is that the crisis over the Iranian nuclear weapons was not resolved, but simply put on hold because the U.S. needed Iranian cooperation in Iraq.

It is now two years later and the crisis has once again come to the forefront with all trends and indicators pointing towards conflict with Iran. Although the Iranians have agreed to allow inspections of the new facility by the IAEA, it is unlikely that anything substantial will result. In fact, the inspections are completely meaningless because uranium can go through the enrichment process at different facilities and leave the inspectors chasing ghosts and rumors. But a nuclear weapons program is far more complex than creating the needed nuclear fuel. The real aspects of the program lay within experimentation with the simultaneous detonation of precisely manufactured conventional explosives. These explosives, commonly known as a shaped charged, are arranged around the outside of the nuclear material in a pattern that resembles a soccer ball. Creating and manufacturing these materials are by far the most difficult aspect of any nuclear weapons program, not to mention the full scale assembly and production of a nuclear device.

Iran, with a little help from several Russian scientists (this information was recently leaked by Israeli intelligence - they know the Russians by name and claim they were sent by the Russian government), seems to have overcome these obstacles. The Associated Press recently disclosed information from a classified IAEA document which stated the following:

• The IAEA's assessment that Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload "that is quite likely to be nuclear."
• That Iran engaged in "probable testing" of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead -- a method known as a "full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system."
• An assessment that Iran worked on developing a system "for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge" of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.
• The agency ... assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel.

With this information it does indeed appear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, and this poses a serious problem - the west, a majority of Arab nations, and perhaps the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel, do not want this to happen. In the face of such opposition one would think Iran would abandon such a program to avoid isolation, but Tehran currently has Russian and Chinese backing - at least for now. Additionally, the Iranians, along with the Russians, view Obama as a weak president who will not use military force to destroy their nuclear facilities (please note that this is not a personal opinion, intelligence assessments from Iran and Russia make this claim). Tehran also believes that the Israelis do not have the military capability of striking and destroying their dispersed nuclear program. In essence, the Iranians believe, albeit wrongly, that they can pursue a nuclear weapons program unencumbered.

Israel has stated that they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but the red line that Iran would have to cross before the Israelis took action is unknown. Israel does have some military options to target the known fixed locations of the nuclear program, but none of these are very promising. Unfortunately, these options would only delay the Iranian program and not destroy it. Knowing full well the limitations of its military power it is unlikely that Israel will be dissuaded from taking action. Many attribute Israel's heavy reliance on military power to memories of the holocaust, while this may be accurate up to a point it does little to explain the nature of the Israeli state. Israel is a small, densely populated country that lacks strategic depth. Any large sustained conventional attack against the country would be devastating meaning that escalation to a nuclear exchange with another country is unthinkable.

While we may not know at what point an attack against the Iranian nuclear sites will occur we can be sure that Iran will respond. The Iranian military is not very sophisticated nor is it able to project force beyond Iran's borders, but Tehran has other tools at its disposal. First and foremost is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is a special military force charged with protecting the revolution and supporting the clerical regime. Most notably however, is the training that the IRGC gives to terrorist groups worldwide. By training and funding global terrorism Iran is able to strike at its enemies worldwide as evidenced by attacks as far away as Europe and South America. Perhaps the most widely known of Iranian terrorist proxies is the Lebanese Hezbollah which participates in terrorist and conventional fighting against Israel. It is highly likely that Hezbollah would be used in the first response to an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran could also use its missile arsenal with conventional warheads to strike directly at Israel, but these missiles have been unreliable and may not be able to penetrate Israel's missile defense system. In an act of defiance or desperation Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz; an act that would affect 40% of the world's oil supply. While the Iranians believe that Obama is a weak president such an act in the middle of a tepid global economic recovery would force the U.S. to respond militarily to open the Strait, which could lead to a wider war. These are the current trends, but of course nothing is written in stone. Perhaps the Israeli diplomat Abba Eban said it best, "History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives."

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By William Tucker

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for several hours today to discuss the need for Moscow's support of crippling sanctions levied against Iran. Israel has been getting more nervous as of late because of the steady development of Iran's nuclear program. Furthermore, Netanyahu is suspected of asking that Russia not follow through with the sale of an advanced air defense system to protect Iranian nuclear sites. While the details of talks have not been made public it can be safely assumed that Israel approached this meeting with both the proverbial carrots and sticks.

Several months ago, Israel confronted Russia over Moscow's support for the Iranians nuclear weapons program by claiming that Russia had sent nuclear weapons specialists to aid in weapons development. Making the confrontation more compelling, Israel is reported to have presented a list of names the Russians had sent to Iran. This intelligence, and its subsequent leak, made an Israel's stick rather meaningful. On the carrot side, Russia has been looking to advance its development in the area of unmanned aircraft which the Israelis provided by way of a lucrative defense contract. Today's meeting taken together with the dealings of the last few months show that Russia is using the Iranian nuclear standoff to its own benefit. But the question remains; will Russia actually play ball when the sanctions regime comes before the Security Council or will they stall for more time, and perhaps, more carrots?

Photo: Associated Press

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By William Tucker

International troops, led by the US, began operations against Taliban militants holed up in the city of Marja near the center of Helmand Province. Thus far, there are reports of sporadic firefights, but resistance has been light. US Marines are having success detecting and destroying IED's that have been strategically placed by the Taliban in preparation for the offensive. Prior to the offensive Special Operations soldiers apparently had great success in eliminating mid level commanders which could help to explain the lack of coordination from Taliban militants that chose to stay and fight.

Afghanistan's government has been able to insert what is essentially a readymade government to ensure civilians are provided with much needed services. Unfortunately for the hearts and minds campaign a rocket attack hit a house killing 12 civilians leading General McCrystal to implement a moratorium on future artillery attacks. It is expected that resistance will remain light; however Taliban elements will now have to look for another safe haven that can provide the much needed money that operations in Marja provided.

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By William Tucker

The Missile Defense Agency, a sub-agency of the Department of Defense, successfully demonstrated the use of directed energy to destroy a missile in flight during the initial boost phase. The boost phase is the stage of a missile launch that occurs at the beginning and presents the best time in which to intercept. The test certainly looks impressive, but its utility remains in question. Perhaps the best use of this type of platform would be in conjunction with other land and sea based assets for missile defense because one platform alone doesn't provide redundancy, nor can it be located in every region where a missile threat exists. That being said, missile defense is still a technology that has a long way to go and with yesterday's successful test another step forward has been taken.

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By William Tucker

The Obama administration has levied new sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or more specifically, Gen. Rostam Qasemi and four subsidiaries of a construction firm that he operates. This action is not unprecedented, and in fact was initiated under executive order 13224 which President Bush signed two weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to obstruct terrorist funding. Furthermore, the U.S. officially designated the IRGC as a "specially designated global terrorist" in 2007 following allegations of Iranian support for insurgents in Iraq.

While the original purpose of targeted sanctions against IRGC entities was to discourage foreign nations and businesses from working with Iran for its ties to terrorism, they have now become a tool for pressuring Tehran from continuing work on its nuclear program. The new sanctions may make for good press, but they are hardly expected to yield results. The reason for this is the sanctions are only binding to U.S. persons and businesses, leaving foreign nations the ability to fully cooperate with Iran on any number of business opportunities. As the world's largest economy the U.S. does have the ability to wield its massive buying power to pressure other countries to prevent them from doing business with Tehran, but this action is not guaranteed to work and could very well work against Washington's interests.

In the immediate future the U.N. Security Council will take up the topic of imposing international sanctions against Iran, but once again success in this action faces serious challenges. For international sanctions to be passed all permanent members of the Security Council must vote in favor of implementation, but with diplomatic ties between the U.S., Russia, and China strained at the moment this is unlikely to happen. Although these sanctions are new the same problems exist in implementation making the other options for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, such as military action, more likely.

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By William Tucker

The last few weeks have been a headache for Venezuelan strong man Hugo Chavez. Perhaps the most immediate challenge to his uncontested leadership in Caracas is not the political opposition, but rather the decaying of the national electrical infrastructure. This is not to say that everything until this point has been going smoothly for Chavez. On the contrary, inflation is rising, the national debt is out of control, and food is becoming increasingly scarce. In typical dictatorial fashion, Chavez has resorted to targeting his political opposition instead of focusing on the problems at hand.

Unfortunately for Chavez the opposition movement is once again gathering steam; albeit without a strong central leadership, but this could change. With the loss of power to much of the country the traditional center of support for Chavez, the poor, may turn on him and embrace the opposition. Currently, it appears as if Chavez understands this and has asked Cuba to complete its obligation to upgrade Venezuela's aging power grid. To facilitate this deal Cuba has sent Ramiro Valdes, one of the last remaining original members of Fidel Castro's initial push to topple the Batista government in Havana. According to Douglas Farah, a well known terrorism expert, Valdes is known for working with non-state actors and suppression of the political rivals.

The presence of Valdes in Caracas is an indicator that Chavez views his revolution as being in trouble and is seeking outside assistance. With persistent rumors of terrorist sponsorship, both past and present, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Chavez to employ groups such as FARC for domestic strong arm tactics to help prop up his damaged regime. Chavez has survived these tests in the past, but whether he can continue to do so in the face of rising unpopularity remains to be seen.

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Features scheduled programming that showcases expert faculty in the emergency management, law enforcement, and health care industries.

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By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

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By William Tucker
Whenever the U.S. carries out a drone strike in Pakistan's restive border areas rumors are quick to follow. Such is the case with the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud. The U.S. struck two sites in Northern Waziristan on the 13th and 14th of January targeting the TTP leader only to have Mehsud release two audio tapes confirming his survival, but the rumors of his death still continue. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Pakistan do not have reliable intelligence assets in the area leaving the answer to the questions of known terrorist leaders' welfare elusive. As Professor Hesterman pointed out in her post on January 22nd, the intelligence gap is well known. This gap forces those of us that rely on open sources to wait for confirmation from the Taliban as to the current status of Mehsud.

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By William Tucker

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing, intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Osama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks, and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new message, bin Laden had the following to say:

"In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama. May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point, U.S intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape, while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and released the following statement: "This phrase, 'Peace be upon those who follow guidance', appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked."

This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden. However, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to severe falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an unusually high number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK's no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. In fact, the Director of National Intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, expects another attempt in the next three to six months. Al-Qaeda may be taking hits worldwide, but they remain a force to be reckoned with.

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By Irvin Varkonyi, Adjunct Professor
American Public University System

In the wake of the tragic earthquake in Haiti, the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) is working to identify relief needs together with major humanitarian relief agencies.

ALAN was formed through the collaborative efforts of Logistics associations including the American Society of Transportation and Logistics, Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, APICS, the Association for Operations Professionals, and others. ALAN works closely with US Government agencies such as FEMA and DHS as well as International Organizations such as the United Nations.

When catastrophes occur, ALAN identifies needs that can be met through the expertise and resources of ALAN's member base which are shared with their association members by posting them on their web page at http://www.alanaid.org/. Presently, Haiti relief efforts are in a rescue and assessment stage. It will take several days for many of the needs to emerge, and others will surface in the weeks ahead.

At the heart of disaster relief is the ability of governments, non-governmental organizations and disaster professionals to move goods and information, usually in the most difficult of environments. The effort is even more complicated when the disaster occurs in an area where infrastructure was already challenged to fulfill the needs of its citizens, as is the case in Haiti. Disaster logistics utilizes five major foundational steps as a core methodology - Planning, Detection, Mitigation, Response and Recovery. Note that the first three steps must be taken before a disaster occurs through contingency planning. Lack of planning and preparation for potential disasters compounds its catastrophic consequences. Haiti is the recipient of lessons learned in past disasters and will offer more lessons learned for future disasters.

Here are some thoughts on how individuals might help:

Review current relief needs - Visit the Relief Needs section of ALAN's homepage at
http://www.alanaid.org/

• Reaffirm your interest in working with ALAN in its efforts to connect supply chain resources to relief - Send an email to a member of ALAN's leadership team with current contact information and special skills or resources at http://www.alanaid.org/contact-us.php
  
• Learn more about ALAN and how you can get involved - Check out the How to Help section at http://www.alanaid.org/how-to-help.php

  If you have resources to offer, your commitment is welcome to engage with a regional or national organization active in disaster before the next event - Major relief agencies only deploy people who know their processes and values. They usually cannot insert spontaneous volunteers into their organizations in the middle of a crisis. Disaster management professionals may improve their capabilities through the study of the connections between logisticians and disaster managements through programs such as American Public University's degrees in Transportation and Logistics Management, or Emergency and Disaster Management.
  

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By William Tucker

In my previous post, I stated, The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. Haiti has had a troubled past to say the least, and is currently playing host to a UN peacekeeping contingent to help manage a country that has been divided all too frequently.

Following the January earthquake the UN peacekeepers were able to continue functioning in a limited fashion when the status of the Haitian government was unknown. The loss of the UN building in Port-au-Prince, which killed many UN staff members, further compounded relief efforts.

Although most of the Haitian government survived, it required international assistance to operate. Perhaps most importantly the President survived leaving the country with an executive leader and heading off the factional fighting that could have taken place in his absence. But without a fully operational government and a recovering UN contingent, it fell to the U.S. military to take charge of Haitian airports and sea ports.

The U.S. military is unique in that it can move troops and equipment to any corner of the globe within hours of a crisis. Thus, it is no accident that the U.S. was able to respond in the manner it did. Although this serves to explain why the U.S. took action, it does not explain the authority under which it acted. At the present, it is safe to assume that the Haitian government provided that authority, but it wasn't adequately explained publicly.

Making matters worse, neither the Haitian nor U.S. governments have stated what the mission of the U.S. military is at this point. These gaps in information have only served to increase political tension in the international response. This is where involving the UN can help alleviate these issues.

Enter the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) team. UNDAC is a team of disaster management professionals who deploy to disaster stricken nations and help with coordinating international relief. UNDAC does not take on a governing role; rather it works with the local government to coordinate with international relief organizations and foreign militaries. When a crisis involves an international response UNDAC can step in and overcome language barriers and aid in mission clarification. Anything that enters into the realm of security falls to the local government, and in Haitis case, both the national government and the UN peacekeeping forces operating under the mandate of the UN Security Council.

The criticism of the U.S. in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake is really unwarranted because Haiti did not have a working government and as a poor nation has limited infrastructure; however the U.S. could have done a better job of explaining its intent. Miscommunication such as this can lead to unwanted distractions from the job at hand and even lead to diplomatic rows with other nations. When it comes to emergency management the focus needs to be on helping the afflicted people in the most efficient manner.

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By William Tucker

It has now been several weeks since a catastrophic earthquake destroyed much of Port-au-Prince Haiti and while the international response was rapid, at least it appeared that way to an outside observer, the relief efforts were really hindered by lack of coordination. As is often the case, the U.S. Military took the lead on the logistics end which eventually required taking control of the airport and repairing the main port of the Haitian capital to ensure that supplies moved into the disaster area as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, the U.S. was roundly criticized for this action. This post will not deal with the international wrangling that followed this criticism, we'll leave that to the pundits, rather we will instead focus on the need for the incident command system to be implemented in international crisis responses to better serve the affected region and limit the jurisdictional tug of war.

In the U.S., arguments over jurisdiction are common in response to a crisis, and responding internationally further complicates the issue. The government of Haiti has a difficult time enforcing the writ of the state in the best of times and nearly ceased functioning in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. This, of course, brings to light several issues that must be addressed for future international disaster response. Who serves as an incident commander when the government of the afflicted nation ceases to function? What about security concerns? Can the United Nations assume a governing role and coordinate a disaster response?

Throughout the week we'll address these questions and hopefully lead into a thought provoking discussion.

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