By William Tucker

The Times of London is reporting today that the Russian FSB is investigating whether Monday's bombing of the Moscow Metro is related to the killing of Said Buryatsky, the spiritual advisor to Dokka Umarov, the Emir of the Islamist Caucasus Emirate. Furthermore, Russian authorities are concerned that 21 members of the Black Widows are operating in Russia and planning their next strike. With these announcements it appears that the Kremlin is preparing the public for future operations in the Caucasus.

This presents a problem for Moscow. During the Second Chechen War, Russian intelligence set up a political apparatus that balances the more powerful clans in Chechnya by spreading political and military power among them. Any major operation in Chechnya could put this arrangement at risk if Moscow moves too quickly. In an attempt to avoid this it is likely that the FSB will focus on eliminating Umarov understanding that he will be replaced. This is fine with Moscow so long as the resulting infighting among the clan's remains confined to the North Caucasus.

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By William Tucker

The zone of military operations will be extended to the territory of Russia. Praise be to Allah, the past year has shown us, and also to all who had some doubts, to Putin and Nurgaliyev (Russian interior minister -KC) that the Brigade of Martyrs, Riyad-us-Saliheen, has been really recreated and is in action. We witnessed many special operations by this Brigade during the last year. The Martyrs' Brigade is replenished with the best among the best of the Mujahedeen and if the Russians do not understand that the war will come to their streets, that the war will come to their homes, so it is worse for them. Blood will no longer be limited to our (Caucasus) cities and towns. The war is coming to their cities. If Russians think the war only happens on television, somewhere far away in the Caucasus where it can't reach them, Insha'Allah (God willing), we plan to show them that the war will return to their homes. Therefore, the zone of military actions will be extended to all Russia, Insha'Allah, and I hope that this year we, Insha'Allah, with Allah's help, could expect successful operations.

Caucasus Emirate's Emir Dokka Abu Usman via Kavkaz Center on 3 February 2010

During rush hour this morning two suicide bombers struck the Moscow subway killing 38 and wounding over 60. The first attack occurred just before 8:00 a.m. local time at Lubyanka station with the second attack occurring about 40 minutes later striking Park Kultury station. Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Services (FSB), said terrorists from Russia's North Caucasus may have been involved in the attacks. Adding to this, Vladimir Markin of the Prosecutor's Investigative Committee stated that two female suicide bombers were suspected of the attack. Some news outlets are claiming that the heads of the bombers have been recovered which will help in identification if this is indeed accurate.

Background

It is not unreasonable to suspect the involvement of North Caucasus militants as Moscow has been waging war against separatist elements in the region since the 1990's. Despite Moscow's claim that counterterrorism operations in Chechnya have been completed militant activity persists in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia. This is not to say that Russia has been without success in the region, rather it is merely a fact that Moscow has been operating in this region against Islamist Nationalist militants and has not been able to completely pacify the region. Russia has managed to successfully exploit the Chechen clan rift in which one was promoted over the other leading to a semblance of stability in Grozny.

The clan war that has led to the current political arrangement in Chechnya was fought during the Second Chechen War by the Russian backed Kadyrov and Yamadayev clans against the Islamist clan led by Shamil Basayev. Basayev is widely known for orchestrating the 2002 Moscow theater siege and the Beslan School Massacre of 2004. The Kadyrov and Yamadayev clans eventually marginalized Basayev forcing the Islamist into exile. Basayev continued to operate and plan attacks in the Caucasus region against the Kadyrov clan and Russian targets until he was killed in 2006. The current head of the Caucasus Islamists, Dokka Usman, has threatened to attack Russia proper on many occasions and is most likely behind today's attack although he has yet to claim responsibility.

Like most Islamist militant groups, the Caucasus Emirate has sophisticated political and military apparatuses that have specific responsibilities and can function as a shadow government. In the case of the Caucasus Emirate, the external operations are the responsibility of the Riyad-us-Saliheen Martyr Brigade (translated in English as 'Garden of Paradise Martyr Brigade') which has successfully conducted attacks against a variety of targets across Russia. According to the Russian FSB, today's attack was perpetrated by the 'Black Widows' which is an all female suicide bomber brigade made up of wives or relatives of Chechen's slain during the wars with Russia.

Tactical Assessment

The two suicide bombers struck the subway during the height of rush hour. This would have provided the attackers with the ability to cause a higher casualty rate and complicate recovery efforts as people struggling to get out would have hindered rescuers trying to get in. Furthermore, the bombers struck on opposite sides of the same line effectively shutting the Sokolnicheskaya line down until the completion of rescue efforts. By targeting the Sokolnicheskaya line in this fashion it is unlikely that one of the bombers was meant to infiltrate the FSB building as some have begun to speculate. Also, the Lubyanka station, which was struck first, is nearest to the FSB building and there is no indication that bomber attempted to leave the station.

Both suicide bombs were constructed with TNT and packed with shrapnel to inflict casualties without having to use a substantial amount of explosives. When constructing a wearable bomb, militants tend to balance the amount of explosives with hardware such as, nuts, bolts, or ball bearings. This allows terrorists to conserve explosive material since it is more difficult to come by without sacrificing the number of future operations that can be carried out. Reports from the FSB have stated that the bomber that hit the Lubyanka station used about 4 kg (8.8 lbs) of TNT, while the Park Kultury station bomber used 1.5 kg (3.3 lbs) of explosives.

As an aside it is strange that the bombers chose to detonate their bombs when and where they did. Planning an attack on an underground subway system usually entails hitting two consecutive metro stops on the same line at the same time in an attempt to box people in a smaller area and complicate rescue efforts. Additionally, when the box, or kill zone to use ambush jargon, is created a third bomber would typically strike in the center. This third detonation would be meant to target first responders tending to the wounded in situ. This begs the question: is the militant's ability to launch meaningful attacks waning, or are security measures in Moscow improving?

The Russian Response

The Caucasus region is very sensitive to Russia. It has been a constant thorn in Moscow's side since it was first integrated into the Russian Empire. Since then the Soviets, and now the Russian Federation, have struggled to come up with a meaningful solution for the area that will allow Moscow to keep the Caucasus as a buffer region to the south without overly taxing the Russian military and intelligence agencies. Because of its inability to pacify the region Russian still has a substantial military and intelligence presence to handle the multitude of issues present in the Caucasus. As such, we can expect the Kremlin to respond to this attack very soon most likely by targeting Dokka Usman, the Emir of the Islamist movement, directly. The wars fought between the Russians and the Islamist-Nationalist militants have been bloody affairs and it is unlikely that this new round of fighting on the horizon will be any different.

Moscow Metro Map credit: BBC
Caucasus Region Map: U.S. State Department

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By William Tucker

The Times of London ran an interesting piece today on the use of the U2 spy plane, nicknamed the Dragon Lady, to spot Taliban roadside bombs that have been inflicting large numbers of casualties as of late. According to US officials the aircraft was indispensable during the Battle of Marja just a few weeks ago as it spotted at least 150 bombs in and around the area of operations. While the international forces in Afghanistan have access to satellite and drone imagery the U2 has the benefit of having the pilot on board who can react to events on the ground more readily. The use of the U2 shows that using all avenues and platforms for intelligence gathering can have an impact even in counterinsurgency operations.

Photo credit: Associated Press

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By William Tucker

Each year the U.S. State Department is required by Congress to revise and update the State Sponsors of Terrorism listing. Those countries currently on the list include Cuba, Iran, Sudan, and Syria. The nations of Iran, Sudan and Syria are easily justifiable for inclusion on the list, but Cuba's presence stands out. Cuba was first added to the list in 1982 for supporting Marxist terror groups throughout Latin America, but according to the U.S. government this support has since ceased. Currently, Havana plays host to some individuals designated as terrorists by the Spanish and Colombian governments which has strained relations with both countries. Other than acting as an intermediary between militant groups and the besieged countries, Cuba no longer supplies arms or money to groups engaged in terrorism. The U.S. intelligence community supports this position.

On the one hand the U.S. believes that Cuba has stopped supporting terrorism, but on the other hand Cuba has not been removed form the state sponsors of terrorism list. Stranger still, the U.S. has not articulated a reason for this. Furthermore, North Korea was removed from the list although the Pyongyang continues to supply weaponry to Iran which is then transferred to Hezbollah with the full knowledge of both governments. North Korea also continues to supply funds and weaponry to people embargoed by the U.N. making the utility of the list questionable.

Cuba may not support terrorism any longer, but the regime is still brutally repressive even after Fidel Castro relinquished control to his brother Raul. It can be said that Cuba has made good strides in changing its policy of supporting militant groups, but it still needs to publicly articulate its reasoning behind allowing foreign militants to remain living in Cuba freely. Doing so will better support Havana's role in facilitating peace talks between FARC and the Colombian government and may ultimately lead to better relations with the U.S. In the end, both the U.S. and Cuba need to do a better job of spelling out their positions vis-à-vis one another when it comes to the topic of terrorism.

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By William Tucker

Saudi Arabian security affairs spokesman Mansour al-Turki announced today that the Kingdom had arrested 113 militants - half of which are Yemeni. According to the KSA government, the militants were divided into three cells with two cells planning suicide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis did not come out and identify al-Qaeda by name, but they did use language typical of government officials that indicate al-Qaeda was indeed behind the plot. The size, scope and ambition of the plot show that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is still determined and capable of launching attacks regionally.

That being said there are other elements that need to be explored. For instance, the KSA government stated that in addition to the Yemenis involved in the plot individuals from Bangladesh, Eritrea and Somalia were also arrested. This is an interesting development because in the past two years al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been working directly with al-Shabaab in Somalia sharing information and cooperating in training and recruiting. Furthermore, the government of Eritrea has been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to counter Ethiopian influence with other Somalia militant groups. Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffered a large setback today the larger al-Qaeda network in the region is hardly a spent force.

Map credit: U.S. Department of Energy

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By William Tucker

The Office of Naval Intelligence is once again warning that al-Qaeda intends to strike out at ocean traffic in the waters between Yemen and Somalia. Threats to waterborne traffic in the waters off Yemen are not new and the Navy reissues warnings to all sea traffic in the area when chatter picks up. In fact, a similar warning was issued about six months ago over the same region. What makes this warning stick out is its timing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has suffered several setbacks as of late, especially coming on the heels of the failed Christmas day airline bombing, and it is not a stretch to believe that they may launch an attack to stay relevant. We must keep in mind that Somalia piracy has been effective even with a large international naval presence operating in the area. Furthermore, these pirates have managed to highjack ships by pulling their skiffs next to the target vessel in order to board - a similar tactic used to hit the USS Cole in 2000 and the M/V Limburg in October 2002.

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By William Tucker

Several media outlets are reporting that the Taliban have executed four American spies. The bodies of the suspected spies were found in the village of Mir Ali in North Waziristan accompanied with the note stating that, "Spies are spies, and they will come to the same fate as these men. Do not spy for America." It is not news that the Taliban are executing individuals they suspect of spying, but it does give us an opportunity to discuss why the Taliban suspect they have spies in their midst.

The U.S. has been using unmanned aerial drones in strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban elements in Pakistan since at least 2004 with varying success, but things changed dramatically in 2008 with 19 high level commanders being struck in 2008. Since that substantial uptick the trend of successful airstrikes has continued with 14 high level commanders killed in 2009 and a further 8 killed thus far in 2010.* It goes without saying that this level of success has made the leadership of al-Qaeda and the Taliban very nervous.

Airstrikes are typically used to hit large enemy concentrations or a fixed target; that is a building or any other infrastructure that supports the command and control of your enemy. These drone strikes on the other hand are being used against specific individuals that move frequently making targeting incredibly difficult without actionable intelligence. In essence, what this means is human intelligence is crucial if these drone attacks are to be successful which explains why the Taliban are distracted by looking for spies. Furthermore, it is no mistake that the Pakistani Taliban struck at the CIA presence in Afghanistan that is suspected of directing the drone strikes.

Coming back to the question of the four American spies we are left with little evidence of their guilt or innocence, but if they were indeed acting on behalf of the U.S. then we can make sense of their actions. On the other hand, if these individuals were innocent then the pressure of the strikes is certainly getting the best of the Taliban. Either way the drone strikes are working beyond the scope of killing high level leaders and adding a psychological aspect that is having a destabilizing effect.

*Numbers of those killed by drone strikes only reflects high level leader. The actual amount of those killed has been the subject of debate. All numbers taken from information available at The Long War Journal.

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By William Tucker

On March 18, the Sudanese government signed a cease fire agreement with another rebel group of the Darfur region marking yet another step toward détente among the multiple factions fighting in Sudan. Although a cease fire has been signed the multiple conflicts in Sudan will not come to an end any time soon. The Darfur region is home to several rebel groups while Southern Sudan is controlled by a secessionist movement. These challenges are complex and will not be solved overnight as the history of this conflict has seen numerous cease fires and peace agreements broken.

Sudan still faces challenges from the international community as the African nation has been used to smuggle arms to non-state actors in the Middle East along with the nations of Chad and the Central African Republic. Additionally, the Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir, is still wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. While we can be pleased that attempts are being made in the interest of peace in Sudan, enthusiasm must be tempered as the nation still has a long way to go.

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By William Tucker

I am often asked about claims in the media of Iranian support for al-Qaeda and Venezuelan support for Hezbollah and how it's possible for these politically different elements to work together. While these questions are important they are hardly the only representative relationships that exist between elements that are so different on paper its hard to believe that they would cooperate on anything. The short answer as to why these nations and terrorist groups cooperate is not so much about ideology, but rather the pursuit of a common, short term goal.

Such is the case of Iranian support for a Sunni Muslim group such as al-Qaeda. Iran, classified as the world's leading sponsor of terrorism, uses militant groups to expand its influence in the Muslim world among other Shiites, but also uses militant Sunni groups to cause problems for Tehran's enemies such as Saudi Arabia and the United States. In this regard Venezuela is no different. The Chavez regime is constantly trying to assert itself as the true guardians of the Bolivarian legacy and as such will use the means that are available. Chavez is known for targeting the U.S. rhetorically in an attempt to engender support among leftists not only in Venezuela, but also throughout Latin America. Understanding the motivation of both Caracas and Tehran in supporting terrorism further explains why the two nations have been working toward closer relations in the last few years.

In any case, these relationships among differing political elements do not always last. An example of this can be drawn from U.S. - Chinese relations. During the Cold War the U.S. fought the Chinese in Korea only to turn around over twenty years later during the Nixon administration and work toward the normalization of ties. The purpose of this U.S. effort was to leverage support from any willing corner of the world to contain the Soviet Union. It seems ironic that an American Democracy worked with and Asian Communist State toward a common goal, and yet it happened. But as is usually the case with strange bedfellows these relationships do not last. Current relations between the U.S. and China are strained for a variety of reasons - many of which have existed all along. The relationship between terrorists and their politically opposed nation state patrons will fare no better, as political fortunes shift so too will relationships born of expediency.

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By William Tucker

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) released a new video a new video on March 7 asking for new recruits. What made this video stand out is the absence of Abdel Malek Droudkel, the group's leader. In his place is a known associate who may have had a falling out with Droudkel recently as Droudkel has been making decisions without consulting anyone else. In this case Abou Youcef el-Annabi, the head of AQIM's Council of Worthies, was the spokesman in the latest video release and is the probable author of the recent written releases as well.

To be fair, AQIM has not said that Droudkel has been replaced, but his absence certainly raises questions since he is the authority that usually speaks on the terrorist groups behalf. It is possible that Droudkel has died as a result of injuries sustained fighting government forces, but we don't have evidence of this yet. If Droudkel has been replaced, because of death or incompetence, we'll have to wait for confirmation from AQIM. Sometimes we are left with little alternative.

Photo credit: Le Figaro (Droudkel on right)

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By William Tucker

When news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

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By William Tucker

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

For the last two years several terrorists experts, myself included, have been pointing to Yemen and Somalia as countries that have not had adequate attention or resources devoted to fighting the growing terrorism threat in these nations. It wasn't until the failed attempt to destroy an aircraft on Christmas Day that the threat from Yemen was brought to the fore, fleeting though it was. Currently, the Yemen government has had a few successful operations against al-Qaeda in the past few months, but the momentum has died along with the press coverage. Somalia on the other hand has been watched off and on as small, targeted operations by the U.S. have been carried out with Operation Celestial Balance being the most visible.

With these political shifts in Somalia it does indeed appear as if the Somali TFG, backed by African Union peacekeepers, may attempt to eject al-Shabaab from Mogadishu to give the fledgling government some breathing room. The U.S. stated today that they will not take a direct role in any offensive, but this does not rule out support actions such as naval and air support as was seen in 2006 when Ethiopia invaded and removed the Islamic Courts Union from power. Al-Shabaab on the other hand will not take this lying down which explains why Fazul Abdullah Mohammed has been given a prominent role.
At this point Mohammed's role is unclear, but he is unlikely to have been made leader of the group. Instead it is more likely that he will be acting as the head military commander because of his experience and his ability to do something that most terrorists have trouble doing - staying alive while continuing to operate. Fazul Mohammad has an extensive background in planning terrorist attacks in multiple African countries, speaks five languages, and goes by over twenty known aliases. Simply put, Mohammad is a terrorist that folks in the counterterrorist community dread, not unlike the now deceased Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh. If Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place.

In the past Mohammed has had success in running multiple, simultaneous operations and it is reasonable to expect he will do so now that he has been placed in command of al-Shabaab. The most likely targets will be in Africa such as elements of the Ethiopian government and of course targets of the U.S. At this point al-Shabaab's ability to strike within the U.S. is unknown, probably limited at best, but it cannot be ruled out. Al-Shabaab has recruited from the large Somali population in the U.S., and in fact, has caused concern within the FBI because some have returned to Somalia and disappeared. One such individual became the first known U.S. suicide bomber when he executed an attack in Somalia on al-Shabaab's behalf. While we don't know what Mohammad's plans are, we can be sure that Somalia will remain a dangerous place and the U.S. will remain an al-Shabaab target.

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By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

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By William Tucker

The city of Jos, Nigeria is experiencing violence between Christian and Muslims once again in what appears to be a continuation of fighting that began in January. Since fighting in this city is frequent it is unclear what set off this bout of violence, but what we do know is that aid organizations have given body counts of over 600 since the fighting began in January. I discussed one possible reason back in February:

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua has since returned to his country, but has not resumed his role leaving Jonathan as acting President. While we don't have a clear connection between national political issues affecting regional violence we cannot rule it out either.

Map credit: United Nations Cartography. Text in red is mine.

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By William Tucker

Preliminary reports suggesting that Adam Gadahn was captured in Karachi appear to have been premature, but the confusion is understandable. At this time media reports, supported by Pakistani sources, have stated that Adam Gadahn is not in custody; however the individual is an American member of al-Qaeda. According to the Pakistani newspaper DAWN, the suspects name is Abu Yahya, an alias used by Gadahn in the past. Other media outlets are quoting different names, but all of these are similar to aliases used by Gadahn. At this point we don't have much more to go on, nor do we know the significance of this arrest. Stay posted for more.

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By William Tucker

The spokesman for al Qaeda prime, Adam Gadahn, has been arrested in Karachi Pakistan according to sources of both the Associated Press and Reuters. Because Gadahn is known to go by several aliases it is difficult to ascertain at this time if the press reports are indeed accurate. This confusion has led the press to proclaim Gadahn's death in the past only to have the terrorist resurface. For the sake of this article we'll assume the reports are correct.

Since Gadahn began working with al-Qaeda he has released, and probably produced, numerous videos of propaganda value. The usefulness of propaganda by terrorist movements cannot be understated as it helps in recruiting and countering the message of their targets. If Gadahn was as involved in creating these videos as many suspect, his absence will have a significant impact on al Qaeda's ability to spread propaganda effectively. Furthermore, Gadahn released a new video this morning just before his arrest, but we don't know if the two are connected.

Gadahn's arrest comes on the heels of several other arrests of high level Taliban members and it is possible intelligence gathered from those individuals helped in locating Gadahn. Many analysts suspect that members of the Taliban Shura* left the city of Quetta in the Baluchistan province when the U.S. began threatening to expand drone strikes to the area. This threat by the U.S. was never expected to occur as Quetta is densely populated and collateral damage would have been high, but the threat seemed to have forced many operatives to move to a safer location. Indeed, Pakistani news outlets began reporting on a mass influx of Pashtu into Karachi around the same time of the U.S. threats and the subsequent Pakistani military operations in Swat and South Waziristan.

Assuming that Gadahn has information on the whereabouts of other Taliban/al Qaeda members, his detention could have a harmful effect on both movements. Since Gadahn released a video today it is possible that he possess time sensitive information on the location of other wanted individuals, but with the rampant media reports about his detention it may be already too late. With the numerous arrests of other high level Taliban it is likely they will be forced to respond, and historically speaking their response will be violent. This analysis is preliminary and we will continue to follow future developments as they become available.

*The Shura discussed here is the one directly associated with Mullah Omar, the leader of the main Taliban movement.

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By William Tucker

Terrorism experts have long lamented the support for terrorism provided by the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the lack of condemnation from the United States. Earlier this week a Spanish Judge accused Venezuela of actively supporting the Basque separatist group ETA. This is, of course, in addition to accusations of supporting FARC in Colombia, which was verified by Interpol, and support for Lebanon's Hezbollah. Furthermore, a Venezuela defector, who also happened to be Chavez's personal pilot, fingered Caracas for supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

International pressure on Chavez for supporting terrorist groups has been virtually nonexistent, but another opportunity has arisen to persuade Caracas to step away from supporting non-state actors. In an earlier post, Another Test for Hugo Chavez, I discussed the situation Venezuela was facing with its failing ability to generate electrical power. Since that writing things have degraded significantly. The Guri dam, which supplies approximately 63 percent of Venezuela's power, has had its water level drop to the breaking point. If the water level continues to drop Venezuela could lose about 40 percent of its power - and that's just the beginning.

Venezuela does have a short term solution to its electricity problem, but it will come at a stiff political price and will be an uncomfortable pill for Chavez to swallow. Colombia, which is usually bear's the brunt of Venezuela's terror support, has offered to supply Venezuela with enough power to fill some of the void left by Guri dam. While we may not know everything that Colombia will ask for in return for supplying power we can be sure Bogotá will bring up the FARC issue. Now that the Spanish are involved the pressure on Chavez will only increase which could provide an opening for other nations that are concerned with Venezuela's activities.

Video credit: NTDTV

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By William Tucker

Earlier today the Singapore Shipping Agency stated that terrorists are looking to attack oil tankers and other ships of significant value transiting the Malacca Strait. The warning was issued by the Singapore Navy Fusion Centre when they "received an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Straits." The report goes on to say that, "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo."

Threats to shipping in the Malacca Strait are not new, nor are these threats solely in the domain of terrorism. In the late 90's piracy was a major concern which generated significant attention from regional powers such as China and Japan. The Malacca Strait is a important transit point for cargo and oil tankers moving Middle Eastern crude to energy hungry powers of the far east. A 2006 study estimated that 15 million barrels of oil transit the strait per day.

Photo: Singapore Navy patrol on the Malacca Strait
Credit: Associated Press

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In September 2007, American Public University System (APUS) signed the American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment (ACUPCC) as a charter signatory.

There are now more than 600 signatories to the commitment. Each institution is required to complete and submit a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory within one year of signing the commitment (click here to view APUS' GHG Emissions Inventory) and within two years of signing, signatories are required to complete and submit a Climate Action Plan (CAP). The CAP is a statement of measures the university has already taken and measures it intends to undertake to address and mitigate its GHG emissions and carbon footprint.

Aside from these specific requirements, there are several others which are more flexible, allowing schools to be creative in how they implement them. One is that of public engagement and education. Most recently, APUS' Sustainability Committee established a blog that will help provide some public outreach and education on issues related to sustainability. In general, the blog is intended to create an engaging and meaningful dialogue about the topics.

To join the discussion, visit the site at http://apus-sustainability.com/.

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by William Tucker

The Iraqi government has reissued a 2004 warrant for the arrest of Muqtada al-Sadr for the 2003 murder of Majid al-Khoie, another Shiite cleric who had just returned to the holy city of Najaf. The original warrant was shelved as part of a cease-fire deal between U.S. forces and several Shiite militias including al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. With national elections slated to take place March 7 the timing of this really calls into the question the purpose behind reissuing the warrant. In the past when threats against al-Sadr were made his followers would often react with mass protests which often turned violent. It is likely that the ruling party did issue this warrant for political gain in the run-up to next weeks election, but in doing so they risk increasing the possibility of violence between different sects and political movements.

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By William Tucker

Two days ago on February 27 an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck at 3:34 a.m. just to the north of Concepcion, Chile. Concepcion is Chile's second-largest city of nearly 900,000 people and is located due south of the capital Santiago. Because Chile is located in an earthquake prone region the government has taken mitigating measures such as implementing strict building codes and constructing an emergency management department. That being said, one thing that has plagued large scale disasters as of late is security.

The Associated Press began reporting on widespread looting in the city of Concepcion yesterday, and in response, the government has deployed 10,000 soldiers to the hardest hit areas to help keep the peace. Unfortunately, initial reports are not promising. In many ways this doesn't come as a surprise since military forces are primarily trained to fight armed conflicts and not serve as civil administrators. Further compounding matters is the lack of security integration in the Incident Command System. It can be argued that the ICS is not meant to contain a security apparatus, and yet getting aid to certain regions would be impossible without a security presence.

In many instances the incident commander and the commander of military forces deployed for security assistance are not the same individual, nor is a clear line of authority defined. In the U.S. on the other hand domestic use of the military, such as the National Guard, is controlled by the State government which also has the responsibility of incident management creating a more ideal situation with better command and control. Members of the U.S. National Guard do engage in disaster response training, but the same cannot be said of federal troops of foreign nations. By all accounts it appears as if this is a factor in the Chilean response which could serve to undermine faith in the government. It is important to remember that while incident management's first priority is the welfare of the afflicted people planning for security cannot be an afterthought in the preparedness process.

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