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June 23, 2010 - 14:31

Patrol Base McElhinney # 3

By Andrew Lubin
Special to InHomelandSecurity.com

The debate on blowing a bridge continues. One patrol reported after meeting with the locals that they told him that while a lot of good people use this bridge daily, so do a lot of bad guys. But as 1st Lieutenant Carl Quist said 'if we blow the bridge, we've put the good people to a lot of inconvenience. And if we blow one or two of the bridges, the bad guys can still use the other, and I don't have nearly enough Marines to permanently guard a bridge and still complete my missions. So we're still trying to figure it out. I think it is worth taking one out."

Continue reading "Patrol Base McElhinney # 3" »

June 21, 2010 - 09:44

Patrol Base McElhinney # 2

By Andrew Lubin
Special to InHomeland Security

While superficially 1st Platoon's mission of patrolling seems to be the same daily grind, 1st Lieutenant Carl Quist and SSGT Chris Whitman are pleased at how their relations with the locals are progressing. Every day builds on the one prior, Whitman explained, "every day of peace and stability makes the locals like us more and more."

The continuous patrols are paying off in a multitude of ways. "We've captured a lot of IED's and IED-making equipment," Quist said," from 10 - 30/lb IED's, plus fuses, plus pressure plates. We're burning up their supplies and our patrolling makes it more difficult for them to re-supply."

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June 19, 2010 - 16:50

Patrol Base McElhinney # 1

By Andrew Lubin
Special to InHomelandSecurity.com

Patrol Base McElhinney. It's a different fight today than the big kinetic push into Marjah back in February, but the success or failure of the 44 Marines and 31 ANA on little outposts like this one is what will ultimately enable the Marines and the Administration to move into the 'transition' phase and declare the war effort to be successful.

1st Lieutenant Carl Quist commands 1st Platoon, Lima Company, 3rd Bn, 6th Marines. "We've been fortunate," he said, "in our four months in-country, we've only suffered five Marine wounded plus 1 terp, plus 3 ANA." This base is named after LCPL Matt McElhinney, wounded in a complex Taliban attack that included machine guns. They were beaten back as McElhinney was evac'd under fire.

Continue reading "Patrol Base McElhinney # 1" »

June 16, 2010 - 09:18

From the Field

By Andrew Lubin
Special to InHomelandSecurity.com

The fighting up and down the Helmand River Valley is picking up in frequency, as you see on the nightly news, and "River City", where phone and internet connections are interrupted until the families of the Marine killed or wounded have been notified has been all too-common. It's not conventional fighting, but rather a combination of harassing fire and IED's; both frustrating and deadly.

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May 26, 2010 - 20:15

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High

By William Tucker

US_Department_of_Homeland_Security_Seal.jpgABC News is reporting that a recently released DHS Intelligence Note is stating attempted terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland in the last 9 months has surpassed the number of attempts in any previous one year period. For the loyal readers of In Homeland Security, and my previous blog the World of Terrorism, you will note that this has been an ongoing topic of mine going back to September 2009 with the most recent posts falling within the last month. Since that time we have seen the tempo of attempted attacks continue to increase while our capability to thwart these plots has diminished due to mission fatigue.

Continue reading "YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High" »

May 23, 2010 - 20:02

Taliban Attack Kandahar Airbase

By William Tucker

ISAF coalition spokesman Brig. Gen. Josef Blotz stated that the Taliban launched an assault on the Kandahar Air Field making the attack the third major strike against large coalition targets in Afghanistan over the last few days. The assault on the Kandahar installation began at about 8 p.m. local time with a mortar and rocket barrage followed by a small arms attack. Reports state that the assault was repelled and aircraft were scanning the area around the airbase looking for any Taliban that may have stayed behind. Although the Taliban have initiated its summer offensive it still appears as if the insurgency cannot strike multiple locations across the country at once - at least for now. At this point the Taliban seem satisfied to attack major military installations at their leisure to show they still retain the capability to inflict damage.

May 19, 2010 - 22:16

The Taliban's Strategic Problem

By William Tucker

On May 17 the Taliban struck an ISAF convoy in Kabul killing six soldiers (5 American, 1 Canadian) and 12 civilians. Today, the Taliban followed that attack with an assault on Bagram Airbase killing a U.S. contractor and wounding five soldiers. The second attack was a tactical failure for the Taliban which resulted in the death of ten of the attackers before they could detonate their suicide vests. In any kind of war attacks and counterattacks occur with regularity meaning that these attacks do not carry any real strategic or tactical value alone, but when taken together they show the Taliban still possess the ability to strike targets in and around Kabul. These attacks, successful or not, provide the Taliban with a propaganda victory.

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May 16, 2010 - 22:06

Drone Strike in Khyber Agency

By William Tucker

_39997452_pakistan_khyber_map203.gifPakistani media is reporting that a suspected U.S. drone strike killed 15 militants in Khyber Agency. As I've stated before I don't usually comment on drone strikes because they happen with such frequency and have become a normal component of the conflict in Afghanistan. This occasion is slightly different, however. Since the U.S. began using unmanned aircraft against targets in Pakistan the primary targets has been Waziristan, but Khyber has never been the subject of a drone strike. On the face of it there appears to be several reasons for the change in venue such as the jihadist exodus out of North Waziristan into Khyber. Another reason is that Khyber serves as the main logistical transit point for NATO supplies. Most of the supplies for NATO must go through Afghanistan making them a prime target for the Taliban in Pakistan. If the U.S. makes the strikes in Khyber a regular occurrence it will likely lead to increased intelligence and military activity on the ground.

Map: BBC News

April 29, 2010 - 23:45

The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents

By William Tucker

070411_EFP_vmed_530a.widec.jpgThe Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency's strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.

Continue reading "The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents" »

April 18, 2010 - 21:59

Taliban Reinforcing Presence in Kandahar

By William Tucker

The Associated Press held an interview with a Taliban commander claiming that the insurgent movement was moving additional troops and planting IED's in anticipation of a NATO offensive in Kandahar this summer. The commander, known only as Mubeen, claimed to have the support of the local population in the southern Afghan city which is dominated by the Pashtu. It is possible that his claim is correct as the Taliban movement has long called Kandahar home. In any counterinsurgency campaign the struggle is not limited to combat, but rather focused on the struggle to gain a populations trust. In Kandahar this will be an uphill battle for NATO forces.

In most asymmetric battles the indigenous force can often wait out the occupying force, or the locals can engage in low level warfare in an attempt to move up the time table. That being said, both NATO and the Taliban have a problem. NATO must eventually leave while the Taliban have been significantly weakened and there is guarantee that they possess the strength to retake the country once NATO withdraws. The Kandahar offensive will provide an interesting metric that the future of Afghanistan can be measured against.

March 21, 2010 - 21:47

Taliban Execute American 'Spies'

By William Tucker

Several media outlets are reporting that the Taliban have executed four American spies. The bodies of the suspected spies were found in the village of Mir Ali in North Waziristan accompanied with the note stating that, "Spies are spies, and they will come to the same fate as these men. Do not spy for America." It is not news that the Taliban are executing individuals they suspect of spying, but it does give us an opportunity to discuss why the Taliban suspect they have spies in their midst.

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March 15, 2010 - 23:22

A Strange Twist in the Capture of Baradar

By William Tucker

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.jpgWhen news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

February 15, 2010 - 01:31

Battle of Marja (Operation Moshtarak)

By William Tucker

International troops, led by the US, began operations against Taliban militants holed up in the city of Marja near the center of Helmand Province. Thus far, there are reports of sporadic firefights, but resistance has been light. US Marines are having success detecting and destroying IED's that have been strategically placed by the Taliban in preparation for the offensive. Prior to the offensive Special Operations soldiers apparently had great success in eliminating mid level commanders which could help to explain the lack of coordination from Taliban militants that chose to stay and fight.

Afghanistan's government has been able to insert what is essentially a readymade government to ensure civilians are provided with much needed services. Unfortunately for the hearts and minds campaign a rocket attack hit a house killing 12 civilians leading General McCrystal to implement a moratorium on future artillery attacks. It is expected that resistance will remain light; however Taliban elements will now have to look for another safe haven that can provide the much needed money that operations in Marja provided.

February 7, 2010 - 22:10

The Impending Battle of Marja

By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

January 22, 2010 - 19:51

New Report Critical of Intelligence Agencies and Efforts in Afghanistan

By Jenni Hesterman, Counterterrorism Expert

Counter Terror Forum

The Center for a New American Security released a report today entitled "Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan".

Here is the opening statement and it is an attention grabber:

"Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy. Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers - whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers - U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency."

In the report, Major General Michael Flynn, the Deputy Chief of Staff of Intelligence for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is critical of U.S. intelligence agencies and the overall effort in Afghanistan. The BBC picked up on this report with headlines like: "US spies in Afghanistan are clueless, says intelligence chief"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6976278.ece

The release of the report, the recent bombing of a CIA outpost in Afghanistan and associated counterintelligence failures, and the inability of U.S. agencies to "connect the dots" on the Christmas Day airline bombing attempt has put intelligence and law enforcement agencies under scrutiny.

I am interested to hear your comments on this report, and the events of the last few weeks. Are we resource-constrained? Are the cultural differences between agencies insurmountable? Is information shared, traded or withheld?

July 28, 2009 - 15:36

America's New Nightmare

Newsweek profiles, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's second in command. Ron Moreau writes:

"In all likelihood, you've never heard of Mullah Baradar. The only Taliban leader most people know is Mullah Mohammed Omar, the unworldly, one-eyed village preacher who held the grand title amir-ul-momineen--"leader of the faithful"--when he ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Omar remains a high-value target, with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. But he hasn't been seen in at least three years, even by his most loyal followers, and rarely issues direct orders anymore. In his place, the adversary that American forces are squaring off against in Afghanistan--the man ultimately responsible for the spike in casualties that has made July the deadliest month for Coalition soldiers since the war began in 2001--is Baradar. A cunning, little-known figure, he may be more dangerous than Omar ever was."

Read entire article.

August 31, 2008 - 09:11

Afghanistan Now the World’s Leading Supplier of Cannabis

A soldier of the International Security Assistance Force walks past a cannabis field that Taliban militants used for cover in the Kandahar province.(Credit: Robert Bronwen, AFP Getty Images)

By Jenni Hesterman

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) recently released its 2008 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, which shows that Afghanistan not only provides 90% of the world’s supply of opium, but is now also the top supplier of cannabis, the source of marijuana and hashish. Approximately 70,000 hectares (173 acres) of the crop were cultivated in 2007, as compared to 50,000 hectares in 2006. Estimates show yet another increase in production in 2008. The UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa summed up the challenge by stating: “Thus, today, Afghanistan has become the world's biggest supplier of two drugs: the most deadly one (heroin), and the one most commonly used (cannabis).

With unwanted Taliban (and world) attention on poppy production, farmers are increasing their cannabis plantings. According to the UN, nearly three quarters of the farmers in the southern Kandahar province will plant cannabis this spring. Despite the fact that cannabis crop is less lucrative than poppies, cannabis farmers make $30 per day, which is five times as much as harvesting wheat. Cannabis is easier and less expensive to grow, and there is increasing demand by users in neighboring countries. Although both drugs are banned by Islam, cannabis appears to be more acceptable than opium. It is converted into “cigarette-tees”, which are widely available for purchase in local markets throughout the region.

The escalating cannabis crop in Afghanistan has several implications. The overall U.S. commitment to counternarcotics in Afghanistan is about $500 million a year, and although a portion of the funds go toward hindering narco-trafficking, the bulk is spent on poppy eradication efforts. In fact, the 2007 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released by the State Department, does discuss hashish seizures by officials, yet doesn’t mention cannabis crop production in Afghanistan as a focus area. Addressing this issue on the ground will likely require additional money and manpower, or the diversion of resources from the poppy suppression efforts.

At the tactical level, Taliban fighters have been known to hide in the marijuana fields. Plants can grow up to 10 feet and provide a thick, dense cover not easily penetrated by thermal devices. Cannabis foliage is hearty and moist; as discovered in other eradication efforts, it does not burn easily. Once ignited, the resulting smoke has an ill effect on humans and animals in the vicinity, thus impacting those beyond the area of operations.

Finally, the increased cannabis production could affect many innocent civilians. Established drug trading routes in the region are expected to burgeon, and villages along the routes have been warned by officials to expect increasing activity by traffickers, law enforcement, and possibly the Taliban.

About the Author
Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism specialist. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies.


May 2, 2008 - 10:12

Global Security Brief

A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

September 10, 2007 - 11:17

Rumsfeld: Afghanistan ‘a big success’

In what is being called his first interview since stepping down from the Pentagon's top spot, Donald Rumsfeld tells GQ Magazine that U.S. efforts in Afghanistan have been a 'big success'. Iraq on the other hand not so much.

Oh, and he doesn't miss his quality time with President Bush either.