By William Tucker

"If Fazul Abdullah Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place."
- William Tucker, In Homeland Security, March 13, 2010

"If al -Shabaab is indeed responsible for the attacks - as their leadership has publicly claimed - it would mark the group's first successful attack outside of Somalia and could portend future external attacks in Africa and beyond."
- DHS Intelligence Note, DHS Office of Intelligence & Analysis, July 12, 2010

Continue reading "Intelligence Gone Wrong: Why the Analysts Underestimated Al-Shabaab" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Ray Odierno, Commander, U.S. Forces-Iraq, recently stated that, "over the last 90 days or so, we've either picked up or killed 34 out of the top 42 al Qaeda in Iraq leaders. They're clearly now attempting to reorganize themselves. They're struggling a little bit. They've broken -- they've lost connection with AQSL [al Qaeda Senior Leadership] in Pakistan and Afghanistan." This statement should not be taken lightly. Al-Qaeda in Iraq has proven to be rather resilient to the constant pressure that U.S. and Iraqi forces have placed on the group, and though they appear to be beaten, they should not be underestimated.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda in Iraq 'Broken'" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

The emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Nasir Abu Basir Al-Wuhayshi, released a new statement recently decrying the decision to either kill or capture Anwar al-Awlaki. Al-Awlaki is the radical cleric that has been linked to several of the 9/11 highjackers and more recently to the failed Christmas day bombing attempt on a commercial aircraft. He is also well known for his support of the shooting spree that took place at Ft. Hood. Recently, the Obama administration has allowed the intelligence community and the military to directly target al-Awlaki although he is a U.S. citizen because of his extensive links to terrorism.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda in Yemen Issues New Threat" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced earlier today the elimination of the two top leaders of the al-Qaeda movement in Iraq. They were Abu Ayyub al-Masri, leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State of Iraq. During the U.S. surge both men, primarily al-Masri, were able to launch attacks and survive the constant hounding by U.S. Special Forces. According to news reports both men were killed in the same safe house in Thar Thar region of Anbar province. According to the Long War Journal an additional 16 individuals were arrested following yesterday's raid.

Videos after the jump

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda in Iraq's Two Top Leaders Killed" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb released two Italian hostages today after reported negotiations took place involving government officials from Italy, Mali and Mauritania. This news comes on the heels of a threat from AQIM threatening to attack the World Cup games in South Africa this summer. While AQIM did manage to shut down the Dakar Rally with similar threats the desire to attack the World Cup far exceeds the capability. The capabilities of AQIM are questionable with rumors of a power struggle and the inability to launch sustained attacks against the Algerian government show that the group is having problems. Algeria, along with cooperation from other North African states, has had some success in counterterrorism operations against the group, but with thousands of miles of sparsely inhabited territory in the Sahel AQIM has managed to survive. All told it appears as if AQIM is damaged, and yet we cannot write them off entirely.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

By now you've probably heard that the White House has approved the targeting of Anwar al-Aulaqi by both the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command and the CIA. Al-Aulaqi is a U.S. citizen with ties to two of the 9/11 highjackers, the Ft. Hood shooter Nidal Hassan, and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man who attempted to bomb a plane this last Christmas. Some Americans are concerned that the President has allowed the targeting of a U.S. citizen by the military and the CIA without due process. While this is a legitimate concern that has been written about at length in the media it does not address why this information was made public to begin with.

When planning an intelligence operation it is usually unwise to broadcast your intentions unless the broadcast is part of the mission. With the targeting of al-Aulaqi this reasoning is unclear, but it has resulted in a response from al-Aulaqi's tribe in Yemen. It is possible that the purpose behind making the U.S. intentions public is to force al-Aulaqi to respond, thus allowing intelligence a chance at narrowing down his location. Al-Aulaqi is a public figure that is known to actively preach jihad to the younger Muslim generation and with him in hiding al-Qaeda's recruiting efforts could be hurt. It is also possible that U.S. intelligence is attempting to drive a wedge between al-Aulaqi and his tribe by threatening this targeting action. Al-Aulaqi is also not an experienced militant which means that without someone in Yemen providing him shelter he could easily make a mistake leading to his demise.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Just after 1:00 pm local time on April 5, the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar Pakistan was heavily attacked by multiple vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) with a follow on attack by militants on foot. Militants in Pakistan and Iraq have been using VBIEDS as a means of breaching the fortified outer perimeters of hotels and government buildings as a means of creating a space from which other militants can enter the area. Multiple media reports state that the attackers were wearing security uniforms which helped the militants get closer to the target. Following precedent of the last several years, once the militants breached the outer walls the follow on attack targeted security personnel with small arms, mortars, and RPG fire.

Continue reading "American Consulate Attacked in Peshawar Pakistan" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Saudi Arabian security affairs spokesman Mansour al-Turki announced today that the Kingdom had arrested 113 militants - half of which are Yemeni. According to the KSA government, the militants were divided into three cells with two cells planning suicide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis did not come out and identify al-Qaeda by name, but they did use language typical of government officials that indicate al-Qaeda was indeed behind the plot. The size, scope and ambition of the plot show that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is still determined and capable of launching attacks regionally.

That being said there are other elements that need to be explored. For instance, the KSA government stated that in addition to the Yemenis involved in the plot individuals from Bangladesh, Eritrea and Somalia were also arrested. This is an interesting development because in the past two years al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been working directly with al-Shabaab in Somalia sharing information and cooperating in training and recruiting. Furthermore, the government of Eritrea has been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to counter Ethiopian influence with other Somalia militant groups. Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffered a large setback today the larger al-Qaeda network in the region is hardly a spent force.

Map credit: U.S. Department of Energy

| Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

The Office of Naval Intelligence is once again warning that al-Qaeda intends to strike out at ocean traffic in the waters between Yemen and Somalia. Threats to waterborne traffic in the waters off Yemen are not new and the Navy reissues warnings to all sea traffic in the area when chatter picks up. In fact, a similar warning was issued about six months ago over the same region. What makes this warning stick out is its timing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has suffered several setbacks as of late, especially coming on the heels of the failed Christmas day airline bombing, and it is not a stretch to believe that they may launch an attack to stay relevant. We must keep in mind that Somalia piracy has been effective even with a large international naval presence operating in the area. Furthermore, these pirates have managed to highjack ships by pulling their skiffs next to the target vessel in order to board - a similar tactic used to hit the USS Cole in 2000 and the M/V Limburg in October 2002.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Several media outlets are reporting that the Taliban have executed four American spies. The bodies of the suspected spies were found in the village of Mir Ali in North Waziristan accompanied with the note stating that, "Spies are spies, and they will come to the same fate as these men. Do not spy for America." It is not news that the Taliban are executing individuals they suspect of spying, but it does give us an opportunity to discuss why the Taliban suspect they have spies in their midst.

Continue reading "Taliban Execute American 'Spies'" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

I am often asked about claims in the media of Iranian support for al-Qaeda and Venezuelan support for Hezbollah and how it's possible for these politically different elements to work together. While these questions are important they are hardly the only representative relationships that exist between elements that are so different on paper its hard to believe that they would cooperate on anything. The short answer as to why these nations and terrorist groups cooperate is not so much about ideology, but rather the pursuit of a common, short term goal.

Continue reading "Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

When news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By William Tucker

Since the failed Christmas airliner bombing, intelligence has seen a spike in activity worldwide. Two of the most recent incidences of note is a new Osama bin Laden tape threatening more attacks, and the UK increasing their terror threat level to severe. In his new message, bin Laden had the following to say:

"In the name of God the most passionate the most merciful. From Osama to Obama. May peace be on those who follow the light of guidance. If our messages to you could be carried by words we wouldn't have done that by planes. The message I want to convey to you through the plane of the hero, mujahid Umar al Farouk [Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab] reaffirms a previous message that the heroes of 9/11 conveyed to you and was repeated frequently. The message is that America will never dream of peace unless we live it in Palestine. It is unfair that you should a safe life while our brothers in Gaza are suffer greatly therefore with God's will our attacks on you will continue to (as long as you support) Israel. Peace be on those who follow the light of guidance." Text from Long War Journal

The first and last sentences are strong indicators of an impending attack. At this point, U.S intelligence states they cannot confirm that it is bin Laden on the tape, while foreign and private intelligence services are fairly certain that it is indeed the terror mastermind. IntelCenter, a private government contractor, has conducted analysis of the tape and released the following statement: "This phrase, 'Peace be upon those who follow guidance', appears at the beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to change their ways or they will be attacked."

This phrase has been used in the past by bin Laden. However, the only information in the public domain pointing to a suspected threat is intelligence indicating that the Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen has trained female suicide bombers for the purpose of targeting aircraft. At this point further information on whether or not these suicide bombers have gone operational is elusive.

The move by the UK to raise their terror alert to severe falls in line with the uptick in activity. Anti-terror officials recently said the past week had seen an unusually high number of people on their no-fly list trying to board US-bound planes. Furthermore, a conference on Afghanistan will be held in London. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be among the attendees which could serve to explain the increase of the threat level by itself, but the number of attempts by individuals on the UK's no-fly list to board aircraft is troubling.

When put into the larger context of events over the last year the tempo of terrorist activity continues to increase. Therefore, it certainly appears that the possibility of an attack larger in scope than the Ft. Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas bombing is on the horizon. In fact, the Director of National Intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, expects another attempt in the next three to six months. Al-Qaeda may be taking hits worldwide, but they remain a force to be reckoned with.

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Jenni Hesterman

Speculation of his death in a January, 2008 Predator strike in Waziristan has now been inarguably refuted: Adam Gadahn is alive and talking in his new 40 minute video entitled "Let's Continue our Jihad and Sacrifice."

He's been riding the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorist List for year, following indictment in the Central District of California for treason and material support to al Qaeda. The charges are related to Gadahn's alleged involvement in a number of terrorist activities, including providing aid, comfort and services to al Qaeda. The State Department's Rewards for Justice Program is offering up to $1 million for information leading to his arrest.

Continue reading "American al Qaeda Operative Adam Gadahn Alive; Releases New Video" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Shelley Smith

As James Gordon Meek, with the Daily News Washington Bureau broke the article, "Experts See Rise in Western-Looking Recruits Training in Terrorist Camps" on December 2, 2007, and as the newly released U.S. National Intelligence Estimate Iran Report shakes up policymakers for the geopolitical problem in Iran; the lingering and growing problem of global Al-Qaeda recruitment is picking up speed.

The recruitment of Al-Qaeda Anglo-featured converts from "Europe and Fair-Skinned Al-Qaeda" killers with light-colored eyes has picked up momentum by Al-Qaeda, yet this is not a recent occurrence as is being portrayed. In 2006, Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina - AP writer, William J. Kole, presented an article "Are Terrorists Recruiting “White Muslims"?

He reported that a 252-page confidential intelligence report compiled by Croatian and U.S. intelligence revealed terrorists worked on non-Arab sympathizers (“white Muslims”) as far back as four years ago. To bypass security obstacles militant recruiters desired recruits with Western features who could blend in environments and execute attacks especially after 9/11.

A good example of the Al-Qaeda quest of blending into Western societies and causing extreme violence and destruction can be seen through the Takfiri ideology and the Takfiri organization, Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad or (Group of Monotheism and the Holy Struggle). They are a breed of Islamic fundamentalist and use immigration as a “Trojan Horse” to expand “jihad” or holy war. They can blend in to societies to organize, and plan with less risk of being identified, intercepted, or interfered with to carry out their plans of action. The Intelligence community considers the “white Jihadists” as a continuing concern for national security and European countries.

Their advantage is not just in how they can blend in, but in how they can get into the United States, through a travel loophole that allows approximately 15 million people to enter the United States from 18 different European countries without a visa. Closer to our borders is the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim terrorist group who took root in South America in the Tri-border or Triple Frontier region in the 70s, that is divided by the borders of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina.

In the QJ Winter Supplement 2006 Vol. V, No. 4 (Russian) “Countering Ideological Support for Terrorism”, The European Union issued a report in 2005 on “The EU Strategy for Combating Radicalization and Recruitment to Terrorism” and made this issue a priority as the EU works through an identity crisis and works on internal and external challenges, while striving to counter extremists rhetoric and highlight their criminal activities. The U.S. and others are concerned about Western styled terrorists who can be “home-grown” terrorists who are trained in secret training camps. With the way terrorist techniques are now evolving the United States could be challenged with home-grown terrorist as is Europe and else where.

Sources:

• Experts See Rise in Wester-Looking Recruits Training in Terrorists Camps (NY Daily News)
  
• U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work (NY Times)

• Al-Qaida Said to Recruit in Latin America (MSNBC)

| Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

By Aaron Richman

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Round Up" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Aaron Richman

Tam-C native Arab language miners have come across a threat made by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) on Algeria and Morocco.

Continue reading "North Africa" »

| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)