In Homeland Security

Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm

2010-03-13T06:27:56Z

By William Tucker

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

]]> For the last two years several terrorists experts, myself included, have been pointing to Yemen and Somalia as countries that have not had adequate attention or resources devoted to fighting the growing terrorism threat in these nations. It wasn't until the failed attempt to destroy an aircraft on Christmas Day that the threat from Yemen was brought to the fore, fleeting though it was. Currently, the Yemen government has had a few successful operations against al-Qaeda in the past few months, but the momentum has died along with the press coverage. Somalia on the other hand has been watched off and on as small, targeted operations by the U.S. have been carried out with Operation Celestial Balance being the most visible.

With these political shifts in Somalia it does indeed appear as if the Somali TFG, backed by African Union peacekeepers, may attempt to eject al-Shabaab from Mogadishu to give the fledgling government some breathing room. The U.S. stated today that they will not take a direct role in any offensive, but this does not rule out support actions such as naval and air support as was seen in 2006 when Ethiopia invaded and removed the Islamic Courts Union from power. Al-Shabaab on the other hand will not take this lying down which explains why Fazul Abdullah Mohammed has been given a prominent role.
At this point Mohammed's role is unclear, but he is unlikely to have been made leader of the group. Instead it is more likely that he will be acting as the head military commander because of his experience and his ability to do something that most terrorists have trouble doing - staying alive while continuing to operate. Fazul Mohammad has an extensive background in planning terrorist attacks in multiple African countries, speaks five languages, and goes by over twenty known aliases. Simply put, Mohammad is a terrorist that folks in the counterterrorist community dread, not unlike the now deceased Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh. If Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place.

In the past Mohammed has had success in running multiple, simultaneous operations and it is reasonable to expect he will do so now that he has been placed in command of al-Shabaab. The most likely targets will be in Africa such as elements of the Ethiopian government and of course targets of the U.S. At this point al-Shabaab's ability to strike within the U.S. is unknown, probably limited at best, but it cannot be ruled out. Al-Shabaab has recruited from the large Somali population in the U.S., and in fact, has caused concern within the FBI because some have returned to Somalia and disappeared. One such individual became the first known U.S. suicide bomber when he executed an attack in Somalia on al-Shabaab's behalf. While we don't know what Mohammad's plans are, we can be sure that Somalia will remain a dangerous place and the U.S. will remain an al-Shabaab target.

Bali Bomber Dulmatin Killed in Indonesia

2010-03-12T00:56:06Z

By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

More Sectarian Violence in Jos, Nigeria

2010-03-10T21:13:37Z

By William Tucker

The city of Jos, Nigeria is experiencing violence between Christian and Muslims once again in what appears to be a continuation of fighting that began in January. Since fighting in this city is frequent it is unclear what set off this bout of violence, but what we do know is that aid organizations have given body counts of over 600 since the fighting began in January. I discussed one possible reason back in February:

Nigeria is once again suffering violence between Christians and Muslims in the central city of Jos. The Nigerian constitution requires a power sharing between members of the two faiths, but with the Muslim President currently in Saudi Arabia undergoing treatment for a heart condition without an accurate picture of his status things are getting tense. The Christian Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, has been given ceremonial powers to act as President, but many Muslims view this suspiciously. Further complicating matters is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared an end to a ceasefire agreement with the government. The Niger Delta is the region where Nigeria harvests most of its crude oil.

Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua has since returned to his country, but has not resumed his role leaving Jonathan as acting President. While we don't have a clear connection between national political issues affecting regional violence we cannot rule it out either.

Map credit: United Nations Cartography. Text in red is mine.

More Information on American al-Qaeda Capture

2010-03-09T02:06:35Z

By William Tucker

Preliminary reports suggesting that Adam Gadahn was captured in Karachi appear to have been premature, but the confusion is understandable. At this time media reports, supported by Pakistani sources, have stated that Adam Gadahn is not in custody; however the individual is an American member of al-Qaeda. According to the Pakistani newspaper DAWN, the suspects name is Abu Yahya, an alias used by Gadahn in the past. Other media outlets are quoting different names, but all of these are similar to aliases used by Gadahn. At this point we don't have much more to go on, nor do we know the significance of this arrest. Stay posted for more.

American al-Qaeda Adam Gadahn Captured

2010-03-07T21:08:25Z

By William Tucker

The spokesman for al Qaeda prime, Adam Gadahn, has been arrested in Karachi Pakistan according to sources of both the Associated Press and Reuters. Because Gadahn is known to go by several aliases it is difficult to ascertain at this time if the press reports are indeed accurate. This confusion has led the press to proclaim Gadahn's death in the past only to have the terrorist resurface. For the sake of this article we'll assume the reports are correct.

Since Gadahn began working with al-Qaeda he has released, and probably produced, numerous videos of propaganda value. The usefulness of propaganda by terrorist movements cannot be understated as it helps in recruiting and countering the message of their targets. If Gadahn was as involved in creating these videos as many suspect, his absence will have a significant impact on al Qaeda's ability to spread propaganda effectively. Furthermore, Gadahn released a new video this morning just before his arrest, but we don't know if the two are connected.

Gadahn's arrest comes on the heels of several other arrests of high level Taliban members and it is possible intelligence gathered from those individuals helped in locating Gadahn. Many analysts suspect that members of the Taliban Shura* left the city of Quetta in the Baluchistan province when the U.S. began threatening to expand drone strikes to the area. This threat by the U.S. was never expected to occur as Quetta is densely populated and collateral damage would have been high, but the threat seemed to have forced many operatives to move to a safer location. Indeed, Pakistani news outlets began reporting on a mass influx of Pashtu into Karachi around the same time of the U.S. threats and the subsequent Pakistani military operations in Swat and South Waziristan.

Assuming that Gadahn has information on the whereabouts of other Taliban/al Qaeda members, his detention could have a harmful effect on both movements. Since Gadahn released a video today it is possible that he possess time sensitive information on the location of other wanted individuals, but with the rampant media reports about his detention it may be already too late. With the numerous arrests of other high level Taliban it is likely they will be forced to respond, and historically speaking their response will be violent. This analysis is preliminary and we will continue to follow future developments as they become available.

*The Shura discussed here is the one directly associated with Mullah Omar, the leader of the main Taliban movement.

Going from Bad to Worse for Hugo Chavez

2010-03-06T05:53:38Z

By William Tucker

Terrorism experts have long lamented the support for terrorism provided by the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the lack of condemnation from the United States. Earlier this week a Spanish Judge accused Venezuela of actively supporting the Basque separatist group ETA. This is, of course, in addition to accusations of supporting FARC in Colombia, which was verified by Interpol, and support for Lebanon's Hezbollah. Furthermore, a Venezuela defector, who also happened to be Chavez's personal pilot, fingered Caracas for supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

]]> International pressure on Chavez for supporting terrorist groups has been virtually nonexistent, but another opportunity has arisen to persuade Caracas to step away from supporting non-state actors. In an earlier post, Another Test for Hugo Chavez, I discussed the situation Venezuela was facing with its failing ability to generate electrical power. Since that writing things have degraded significantly. The Guri dam, which supplies approximately 63 percent of Venezuela's power, has had its water level drop to the breaking point. If the water level continues to drop Venezuela could lose about 40 percent of its power - and that's just the beginning.

Venezuela does have a short term solution to its electricity problem, but it will come at a stiff political price and will be an uncomfortable pill for Chavez to swallow. Colombia, which is usually bear's the brunt of Venezuela's terror support, has offered to supply Venezuela with enough power to fill some of the void left by Guri dam. While we may not know everything that Colombia will ask for in return for supplying power we can be sure Bogotá will bring up the FARC issue. Now that the Spanish are involved the pressure on Chavez will only increase which could provide an opening for other nations that are concerned with Venezuela's activities.

Video credit: NTDTV

Singapore Warns of Terrorist Threat to Malacca Strait

2010-03-05T04:45:18Z

By William Tucker

Earlier today the Singapore Shipping Agency stated that terrorists are looking to attack oil tankers and other ships of significant value transiting the Malacca Strait. The warning was issued by the Singapore Navy Fusion Centre when they "received an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Straits." The report goes on to say that, "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo."

Threats to shipping in the Malacca Strait are not new, nor are these threats solely in the domain of terrorism. In the late 90's piracy was a major concern which generated significant attention from regional powers such as China and Japan. The Malacca Strait is a important transit point for cargo and oil tankers moving Middle Eastern crude to energy hungry powers of the far east. A 2006 study estimated that 15 million barrels of oil transit the strait per day.

Photo: Singapore Navy patrol on the Malacca Strait
Credit: Associated Press

Online University Launches Sustainability Blog

2010-03-04T14:42:33Z

In September 2007, American Public University System (APUS) signed the American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment (ACUPCC) as a charter signatory.

There are now more than 600 signatories to the commitment. Each institution is required to complete and submit a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory within one year of signing the commitment (click here to view APUS' GHG Emissions Inventory) and within two years of signing, signatories are required to complete and submit a Climate Action Plan (CAP). The CAP is a statement of measures the university has already taken and measures it intends to undertake to address and mitigate its GHG emissions and carbon footprint.

]]> Aside from these specific requirements, there are several others which are more flexible, allowing schools to be creative in how they implement them. One is that of public engagement and education. Most recently, APUS' Sustainability Committee established a blog that will help provide some public outreach and education on issues related to sustainability. In general, the blog is intended to create an engaging and meaningful dialogue about the topics.

To join the discussion, visit the site at http://apus-sustainability.com/.

Arrest Warrant Reissued for Muqtada al-Sadr

2010-03-02T21:45:16Z

by William Tucker

The Iraqi government has reissued a 2004 warrant for the arrest of Muqtada al-Sadr for the 2003 murder of Majid al-Khoie, another Shiite cleric who had just returned to the holy city of Najaf. The original warrant was shelved as part of a cease-fire deal between U.S. forces and several Shiite militias including al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. With national elections slated to take place March 7 the timing of this really calls into the question the purpose behind reissuing the warrant. In the past when threats against al-Sadr were made his followers would often react with mass protests which often turned violent. It is likely that the ruling party did issue this warrant for political gain in the run-up to next weeks election, but in doing so they risk increasing the possibility of violence between different sects and political movements.

Security in a Disaster: Assessing the Security Response to the Chilean Earthquake

2010-03-01T22:21:28Z

By William Tucker

Two days ago on February 27 an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck at 3:34 a.m. just to the north of Concepcion, Chile. Concepcion is Chile's second-largest city of nearly 900,000 people and is located due south of the capital Santiago. Because Chile is located in an earthquake prone region the government has taken mitigating measures such as implementing strict building codes and constructing an emergency management department. That being said, one thing that has plagued large scale disasters as of late is security.

]]> The Associated Press began reporting on widespread looting in the city of Concepcion yesterday, and in response, the government has deployed 10,000 soldiers to the hardest hit areas to help keep the peace. Unfortunately, initial reports are not promising. In many ways this doesn't come as a surprise since military forces are primarily trained to fight armed conflicts and not serve as civil administrators. Further compounding matters is the lack of security integration in the Incident Command System. It can be argued that the ICS is not meant to contain a security apparatus, and yet getting aid to certain regions would be impossible without a security presence.

In many instances the incident commander and the commander of military forces deployed for security assistance are not the same individual, nor is a clear line of authority defined. In the U.S. on the other hand domestic use of the military, such as the National Guard, is controlled by the State government which also has the responsibility of incident management creating a more ideal situation with better command and control. Members of the U.S. National Guard do engage in disaster response training, but the same cannot be said of federal troops of foreign nations. By all accounts it appears as if this is a factor in the Chilean response which could serve to undermine faith in the government. It is important to remember that while incident management's first priority is the welfare of the afflicted people planning for security cannot be an afterthought in the preparedness process.

More Trouble in the Caucasus

2010-03-01T04:02:04Z

By William Tucker

When the Soviet Union fell apart many nations that had not known independence in over a century were forced to create political and economic systems without a connection to Moscow. The areas that suffered the most were the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the redrawing of borders under the reign of Josef Stalin. Stalin's purpose was to mix ethno linguistic groups thus preventing any one group from becoming too powerful and causing trouble, but without the power of the red army maintaining stability an outbreak of war in several regions was inevitable. The wars of mid 1990's that occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a prime example of this.

In recent years Turkey and Armenia have been engaged in normalization talks, but this move has made Azerbaijan nervous. The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan began shortly after ethnic Armenians in the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh passed legislation declaring their intention to unite with Armenia. The government in Yerevan pledged their assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh and a wider war between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. Although the war was ended via a cease fire brokered by Russia in 1994 the dispute was never settled.

Lately Azerbaijan has focused on upgrading their military and is threatening war to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but Russia and Turkey will do everything they can to prevent another conflict. The Caucasus is a sensitive area for Russia specifically and has been used as a lever to cause problems for Moscow in the past. With Russia pushing back against western interests in several areas it is not a stretch to expect the same to happen again. In any case activities in the Caucasus bear closer scrutiny.

Map credit: U.S. State Department

National Security Analysis & Intelligence Summer Seminar

2010-02-27T06:05:26Z

From the Washington Regional Threat and Analysis Center:

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) National Security Analysis & Intelligence Summer Seminar (NSAISS) is now accepting applications for a two week summer program in Washington, DC. NSAISS addresses critical national priorities in the U.S. Intelligence Community and offers participants the chance to study with currently serving intelligence analysts and other professionals through a curriculum of lectures, case studies, practice simulations, site visits to agencies, and other forms of exploration of intelligence disciplines, methodologies and substantive topics under the direction of the Intelligence Community, academia and private sector experts. Selected participants will receive a one time, $500 stipend; accommodations, transportation to/from Washington D.C. and to all program activities; and temporary "Secret" level security clearance for the duration of the seminar. Training is July 11-23, 2010. Call for applications. The application deadline is March 7, 2010. For more information about the program, eligibility and application visit http://www.orau.gov/nsaiss Please share this information with others at your academic institution/organization. http://www.dni.gov/cae/#2010Program

The Need for an Active Shooter Program

2010-02-26T04:46:40Z

By William Tucker

In the last two weeks the U.S. has witnessed two more school shootings. These attacks may not have been identical, but they do show a need for businesses, schools, churches, and civic centers to ensure that they have an active shooter program in place. Of course these styles of attacks are not new as we all can remember the Columbine and Virginia Tech attacks, but when these attacks do occur it is important to review our plans and ensure that they are still adequate.

The Department of Homeland Security defines an active shooter as, "an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims." Furthermore DHS states:

Active shooter situations are unpredictable and evolve quickly. Typically, the immediate deployment of law enforcement is required to stop the shooting and mitigate harm to victims. Because active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes, before law enforcement arrives on the scene, individuals must be prepared both mentally and physically to deal with an active shooter situation.

It may seem that the prevention of a shooting situation is only avoidable by the use of security personnel and metal detectors. Not only is this unfeasible for small businesses or every school, but it also runs counter to the very purpose of most public meeting places - for physical interaction. It is indeed possible for public meeting places to institute measures to protect people within a facility. Not all facilities are the same so it is important to tailor your approach to your location.
DHS Training Materials on Active Shooters

Training Book

Pocket Guide

Poster

Utah Schools Emergency Response Plan.

Gaza's 'Green Prince'

2010-02-25T03:02:04Z

By William Tucker

It has been revealed that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, turned on his father's organization and spied for Israel. According to the Times Online, the junior Yousef had become disenfranchised with the spate of suicide bombings and offered his services to Shin Bet. According to Israeli sources, the intelligence Yousef provided put several members of Hamas in jail and prevented numerous suicide bombings. Much of Yousef's exploits will be detailed in his forthcoming book, Son of Hamas, which should help shed some light on the inner workings of Hamas.

Getting people inside terrorist or criminal organizations is not an easy task and sometimes, though most intelligence officers won't admit it, luck plays a crucial role. This is very much evident in Yousef's case. From a counterintelligence standpoint it seems that Hamas's internal security suffered a major failure and I for one am curious as to why.

The Times Online article is here

The Curious Assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh

2010-02-24T04:23:40Z

By William Tucker

The assassination of Hamas senior commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh has made international headlines. In this article I explain the rationale behind the killing as well as an abbreviated timeline of events.

]]> I don't typically write on every assassination of a terrorist leader as details are often sketchy and speculation in the press is widespread. This does not mean, however, that I refrain from discussing the more notable drone strikes in Pakistan. The reason for this is simple, the means and methods of the drone strikes are known as is the party responsible. This is not always the case for covert operations, but the case of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh is different. I don't have all the facts, but I have managed to amass enough information to discuss the assassination intelligently.

Assassinations are often believed to be used solely for leadership decapitation purposes, but while this does happen contemporary studies show that nation-states often have other plans in mind. But before we discuss the al-Mabhouh assassination it's useful to provide an event that is historically analogous, such as that of Imad Mughniyeh, to prove this point. Mughniyeh was the Hezbollah mastermind behind the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon and several other terrorist acts across the globe. As such, Mughniyeh was wanted by several governments and was actively sought by intelligence services for years. Mughniyeh's time came to an end via a bomb placed in the headrest of his vehicle while in Damascus. To be sure, the assassination of Mughniyeh did damage the external operations of Hezbollah, but did not destroy the organization. Then again it wasn't expected to.

Several months before the Mughniyeh assassination, the Israeli Air Force struck and destroyed a nuclear facility being constructed in Northern Syria. These two incidents, neither of which was minor, put Syria on the defensive. Shortly thereafter, Israel and Syria began peace talks brokered by both Turkey and the U.S. While I don't have evidence linking the airstrike and assassination to the peace talks the timing is compelling. This brings us back to the al-Mabhouh assassination.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas and was currently serving as senior commander in charge of armaments. One of his recent claims to fame was orchestrating the movement of armaments and munitions from Iran, through Sudan to the Siani Peninsula, and finally through underground tunnels into the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis, finally wise to this new method of arms smuggling, launched an airstrike on March 26, 2009 against an arms convoy in Northern Sudan thus disrupting any further use of these transit points. For the Israelis this was incredibly important. After Operation Cast Lead, Israel wanted to prevent any chance Hamas had at rearming and threatening Israeli civilians in the future. This effort against arms smuggling has had a good success rate and has kept Hamas silent. The next logical step would be to remove the arms smuggler, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Just as the Mughniyeh assassination was meant to force an issue with Syria the al-Mabhouh killing was meant to hinder arms smuggling into Gaza and send a message to Iran. Here are the known operational details of the al-Mabhouh assassination available in the open source:

Al-Mabhouh arrives in Dubai via Emirates flight AQ 912 on January 19, 2010.

He then arrives at the Hotel Bustan Rotana at 4:30 p.m. then departed for the Iranian embassy a half hour later. At this time surveillance conducted by the assassination team convergences on the Hotel and sets up shop.

Al-Mabhouh returns from the embassy to the hotel, room 130, at approximately 9:00 p.m.

According to Dubai police al-Mabhouh answered a knock on his door shortly after returning and was hit with a stun gun, strangled and injected with a poison.

Al-Mabhouh's body was discovered in the early morning of January 20 after his wife notified Hamas officials she couldn't reach him by phone.

While officials in Dubai were quick to point fingers at the Israeli Mossad it is clear that others were involved by the resulting arrests. Hamas has been undergoing an internal struggle and the arrests of Nahro Massoud and Mahmoud Nasser, both of Hamas, show that the assassination team may have had inside help (one Kuwaiti newspaper claims that Nahro Massoud was with al-Mabhouh near the time of his death). In the wake of these and other arrests there are indications that Dubai may want to end this investigation quickly as the Dubai police have enlisted the help of the Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence services to aid in the investigation. On its face it appears that Dubai has asked for assistance from Egypt and Jordan because it needs help in the intelligence realm, however, al-Mabhouh was wanted by both nations and they hardly want to pursue the case any further meaning the investigation is likely to hit a wall. In Europe there are some nations upset over the use of EU member passports as cover for the assassination team and not the actual assassination itself, but this too is likely to slowly fade away (two British newspapers are actually claiming that the Israelis notified the UK that this was going to happen beforehand). In the near term we can expect to see continued media coverage, but Israel has done what it set out to do - Iran, and their proxies, have been put on notice.

Photo credits: 1. Jerusalem Post 2. Dubai Police

London Times Slide Show of Events