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http://www.aspeninstitute.org/video/asf-2010-pre-opening-address-afghanistanpakistan-national-security-challenge

Estimate of Al-Qaeda's Size

By William Tucker

The Aspen Institute recently hosted Michael Leiter, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, and Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at a homeland security conference. Much of what both men discussed is well known to those that follow homeland security and terrorism issues, but both men put the number of al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan at "more than 300" which is new information. Taken together with CIA Director Leon Panetta's disclosure that only 50-100 al-Qaeda operatives remain in Afghanistan it would appear that al-Qaeda's numbers in South Asia are somewhere between four to five hundred. Unfortunately, we do not know how these numbers are figured or who is being counted. I have the suspicion that a small part of the size estimate is made up of al-Qaeda figures known to intelligence, while the rest is comprised of foreign fighters. Trying to separate the different Taliban factions and the foreign fighters from actual al-Qaeda is a near impossible task anymore. The following video is a bit long, but well worth your time.

Continue reading "CIA, ISI: Cooperation Comes at a Price" »

CIA, ISI: Cooperation Comes at a Price

By William Tucker

Yesterday the AP ran a story that discussed the ongoing battle between the CIA and the Pakistani ISI. In the context of the War on Terror the US has been forced into a shotgun wedding of sorts with the Pakistanis. Both nations are hesitant to work with each other, but in the wake of the 9/11 attacks the renewed relationship was inevitable. When two nations are forced to work with one another their respective intelligence agencies will ultimately follow suit. But we shouldn't confuse diplomatic cooperation with intelligence cooperation. Diplomats are paid to make nice while intelligence agencies will cooperate with one another when forced, but will also target each other out of necessity.

Continue reading "Rundown of CIA Director's Interview - Part 3" »

Rundown of CIA Director's Interview - Part 3

By William Tucker

In this final analysis of CIA Director Leon Panetta's Sunday interview we will discuss the comments made on the Iranian nuclear program. During the interview Panetta said, "We would estimate that if they made that decision, it would probably take a year to get there, probably another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable." Furthermore, he also stated that Israel's belief that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon was stronger than that of the US, but Israel was willing to allow the US to pursue diplomatic means to prevent that from happening.

Continue reading "Rundown of CIA Director's Interview - Part 2" »

Rundown of CIA Director's Interview - Part 2

By William Tucker

In the continued analysis of CIA Chief Leon Panetta's remarks Sunday we will discuss two interrelated topics - the number of al-Qaeda left in Afghanistan and the slow progress being made in the Afghan counterinsurgency campaign. Before we dive into these topics we must address the US strategic outlook for Afghanistan. In the larger picture Afghanistan does not provide the US any true strategic prospects. Afghanistan is a mountainous landlocked nation that is poor in capital and does not have a good outlook on a central government. When the US decides it is time to withdraw Washington will begin to focus on counterterrorism operations designed to deny terrorists a safe haven in the area, but beyond this central Asia holds little interest for the US.

Continue reading "Rundown of CIA Director's Interview" »

Rundown of CIA Director's Interview

By William Tucker

CIA Chief Leon Panetta was interviewed by ABC News today in which he discussed a number of issues including: Afghanistan progress slower than anticipated, the number of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, recent terror attacks on the homeland, Iran will have nuclear weapon in two years, and the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. Throughout the week I will provide analysis of each topic and what we can expect going forward. Today, we'll start with the location of Osama bin Laden.

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YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High

By William Tucker

ABC News is reporting that a recently released DHS Intelligence Note is stating attempted terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland in the last 9 months has surpassed the number of attempts in any previous one year period. For the loyal readers of In Homeland Security, and my previous blog the World of Terrorism, you will note that this has been an ongoing topic of mine going back to September 2009 with the most recent posts falling within the last month. Since that time we have seen the tempo of attempted attacks continue to increase while our capability to thwart these plots has diminished due to mission fatigue.

Continue reading "YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High" »

Petraeus Signs Order for more Aggressive Covert Operations

By William Tucker

In September 2009, the Commander of U.S. Central Command signed a Joint Unconventional Warfare Task Force Execute Order authorizing the expanded use of covert operations to disrupt terrorist activity in specifically designated countries. This type of order is not new, nor is this the first time the U.S. has used such methods to target specific terrorists in nations without a formal American military presence. This would serve to explain the increase in operational tempo in countries such as Yemen and Somalia as well as a host of other operations that have been conducted since September. Now that this information is out in the open it could serve to hinder U.S. operations in hostile countries such as Iran and Syria.

Continue reading "The Taliban's Strategic Problem" »

The Taliban's Strategic Problem

By William Tucker

On May 17 the Taliban struck an ISAF convoy in Kabul killing six soldiers (5 American, 1 Canadian) and 12 civilians. Today, the Taliban followed that attack with an assault on Bagram Airbase killing a U.S. contractor and wounding five soldiers. The second attack was a tactical failure for the Taliban which resulted in the death of ten of the attackers before they could detonate their suicide vests. In any kind of war attacks and counterattacks occur with regularity meaning that these attacks do not carry any real strategic or tactical value alone, but when taken together they show the Taliban still possess the ability to strike targets in and around Kabul. These attacks, successful or not, provide the Taliban with a propaganda victory.

Canada Tracking Over 200 Terrorism Suspects

By William Tucker

In a news report that flew under the radar, Reuters reported that the head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) told a parliamentary committee that his organization was currently tracking over 200 individuals with suspected ties to al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. From a Canadian perspective this is a substantial number. Although Canada is a large country land wise it only has a population of just over 33 million and an intelligence apparatus numbering about 2500. As I discussed in Wednesday's post terrorist groups use multiple names to disguise their activities and confuse law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Taking the report that Canada is tracking over 200 individuals it certainly looks as if CSIS has its hands full. Investigating terrorism, like criminals or foreign intelligence officers, takes a tremendous amount of man power. When we are in a phase in which terrorist activity is on the upswing it won't take long before people begin to get stretched and mistakes will be made.

Continue reading "Tempo of Attempted Terror Plots Keeps Rising" »

Tempo of Attempted Terror Plots Keeps Rising

By William Tucker

Back in September 2009 I warned on my old World of Terrorism blog that the increase in attempted terror attacks against the U.S. was rising at an alarming rate. I followed that warning with another in January noting that the tempo was unusually high. In both posts I reminded my readers that we must keep our eyes open for something bigger on the horizon and since that time we have had the mass murder at Ft. Hood, Texas and the more recent bombing attempt in Times Square. My words from September 2009 have become increasingly relevant:

"Terrorists use a variety of methods to mask their plots by using multiple names for their organization and also using patsies to overwhelm intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The use of patsies could explain the flurry of recent arrests, but I do not have any information to confirm this. I have seen an uptick in reported surveillance by suspicious individuals nationwide and am concerned that something larger is on the horizon. Busting a few plots is great, but we must keep our eyes on the bigger picture."

Continue reading "The Strategic View of Terrorism" »

The Strategic View of Terrorism

By William Tucker

One of the maxims of counterterrorism professionals is the belief that terrorism does not occur in a vacuum. Students of political violence may recognize the statement, but the description of this statement often varies depending on who is queried. I take a very general point of view and often define the maxim as simply meaning support. Terrorists need some form of support if they are to be successful and this doesn't always mean state sponsorship, although for the purpose of this post that is the topic we will be following.

Terrorism doesn't occur spontaneously. Those individuals or groups that decide to engage in political violence must learn the craft or they will fail quickly. It is also important to remember that just because an attack is successful doesn't mean that a single tactical advantage will transform into a strategic victory. Take for instance the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. In the simplest terms Kaczynski was anti-technology and preferred to act alone. Because of this it took time for him to create a mail bomb that was effective and even longer for a bomb to actually kill someone. In the end Kaczynski was a failure because his ideas did not motivate a larger trend nor was he able to cause enough havoc to capitalize on. Lone wolves can be dangerous, but they hardly have the ability or effectiveness to garner the attention of foreign intelligence services for recruitment.

Continue reading "Iranian Espionage in the Gulf States" »

Iranian Espionage in the Gulf States

By William Tucker

Several months ago I stated that Iranian intelligence activities would become more aggressive in the face of increased sanctions. Since Iran has still refused to comply with the UNSC and other concerned nations the regime believes, albeit privately, that some sort of military action may be taken to halt the program. Whenever a nation feels a substantial amount of pressure, such as an increase in sanctions, they will inevitably resort to increased intelligence activities to discern the intentions of their adversaries. In Iran's case they will certainly be conducting surveillance on U.S. military installations in the Persian Gulf region, and possibly domestic targets should armed hostilities take place. Iran is well known for its support of militant groups throughout the Middle East and Africa.

Hakimullah Mehsud is Alive

By William Tucker

After a long debate over the fate of Hakimullah Mehsud it now appears as if the Pakistanis are admitting that public enemy number one is still alive. According to multiple media accounts, an intelligence officer with the Pakistani ISI has stated that the leader of the TTP did not die in a U.S. drone attack on January 14, 2010. When the rumors of Mehsud's death first began intelligence over a successor was lacking leading many to believe that the Pakistanis were once again premature in announcing the death of a militant. Now that we have evidence that Mehsud is still alive it still does not mean he is still leading the group. A spokesman for the U.S. State Department alluded to this possibility recently; however sources available to the Long War Journal have dismissed that possibility. Regardless of this disagreement it does appear as if the TTP is having some sort of a crisis of leadership. If reports from the Taliban are correct that Hakimullah is alive and running the group his current need to lay low may be undermining the group's efficiency. While there have been several attacks against the Pakistani state they pale in comparison to the reign of terror following Mehsud's ascension to the top of the TTP's leadership. Now that Mehsud's vitals have been verified once again we'll have to see if he makes a media appearance to dispel all doubt.

Continue reading "The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents" »

The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents

By William Tucker

The Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency's strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.

Continue reading "South Korea Blames North for Sinking of Warship" »

South Korea Blames North for Sinking of Warship

By William Tucker

The South Korean warship Cheonan was struck by external explosives, possibly torpedoes, when it sunk on March 26 of this year. Part of the ship was recently salvaged and according to investigators there is no doubt that the explosion occurred outside of the vessel making the occurrence of an accident unlikely. According to North Korean defectors, the attack on the Cheonan was personally ordered by Kim Jong-Il in retaliation for a naval skirmish that occurred in 2009. If the reports from these defectors and South Korean intelligence are accurate this places Seoul in a difficult position.

Continue reading "DOD Releases Assessment of Iranian Military" »

DOD Releases Assessment of Iranian Military

By William Tucker

Several media outlets were reporting yesterday that Iran would be capable of developing a missile that could potentially hit the continental United States by 2015. This information was pulled from an assessment drafted by the U.S. Department of Defense as required by congress. By itself a missile capable of reaching the U.S. is not really news unless the missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It would appear that DOD expects Iran to continue down the path toward possession of nuclear weapon as a missile capable of reaching the U.S. would be useless otherwise.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda in Iraq's Two Top Leaders Killed" »

Al-Qaeda in Iraq's Two Top Leaders Killed

By William Tucker

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced earlier today the elimination of the two top leaders of the al-Qaeda movement in Iraq. They were Abu Ayyub al-Masri, leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State of Iraq. During the U.S. surge both men, primarily al-Masri, were able to launch attacks and survive the constant hounding by U.S. Special Forces. According to news reports both men were killed in the same safe house in Thar Thar region of Anbar province. According to the Long War Journal an additional 16 individuals were arrested following yesterday's raid.

Videos after the jump

Continue reading "Syria Transfers Scud Missiles to Hezbollah" »

Syria Transfers Scud Missiles to Hezbollah

By William Tucker

U.S. and Israeli intelligence services have confirmed that Syria transferred several Scud 'B' missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is certainly a strange development, and as such, we'll take apart the implications. But before we get to the military aspect it is probably best to discuss the rationale of the al-Assad regime in Damascus for taking such a provocative step knowing full well that western intelligence agencies would pick up on the transfer.

Syrian President Bashir al-Assad came under fire from the west following the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri because all indications pointed to Syrian complicity. As a result the U.S. removed its ambassador to Syria and has only recently considered reestablishing full diplomatic ties. In the years following the assassination several nations, most notably France and Turkey, attempted to use engagement rather than isolation to change Syria's behavior. While this did help to initiate peace talks between Israel and Syria, Damascus has chosen to remain a rogue actor and state sponsor of terrorism. This is partially because in the midst of engagement Syria kept taking provocative actions only to have the engagement effort intensify. In essence, Syria was able to support terrorism without punishment and kept pressing the west for concessions before Damascus would change its behavior.

Israel Warns of Terror Attacks in the Sinai

By William Tucker

The Israeli prime minister's anti-terror office issued a statement today urging all Israelis to leave the Sinai Peninsula immediately because of credible information regarding attempts by terrorists to kidnap Israeli citizens. The PM's anti-terror office has a standing warning against visiting the Sinai; however many Israeli's simply choose to ignore their government on this issue. The Sinai is usually a hotbed of terrorist activity by Palestinian groups and other anti-Israeli militants, and as such we should take this warning seriously as the Sinai is a popular tourist destination for many westerners.

In 2004, the Tala Hilton Hotel, a popular resort for Israeli and western tourists, was attacked by Palestinian militants resulting in 34 dead and many injured. With tensions between Palestinians and Israeli increasing as of late it is possible that the most radical of the Palestinian movement may choose to attack tourist destinations again. Furthermore, the Egyptian government has had its hands full with Hezbollah terror cells operating on the peninsula as well. In the near future the political environment in Egypt will be a cause of concern because of upcoming elections and an aging President it is possible that political instability could become a real issue in the region.

Map credit: National Geographic

Target: Anwar al-Aulaqi

By William Tucker

By now you've probably heard that the White House has approved the targeting of Anwar al-Aulaqi by both the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command and the CIA. Al-Aulaqi is a U.S. citizen with ties to two of the 9/11 highjackers, the Ft. Hood shooter Nidal Hassan, and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man who attempted to bomb a plane this last Christmas. Some Americans are concerned that the President has allowed the targeting of a U.S. citizen by the military and the CIA without due process. While this is a legitimate concern that has been written about at length in the media it does not address why this information was made public to begin with.

When planning an intelligence operation it is usually unwise to broadcast your intentions unless the broadcast is part of the mission. With the targeting of al-Aulaqi this reasoning is unclear, but it has resulted in a response from al-Aulaqi's tribe in Yemen. It is possible that the purpose behind making the U.S. intentions public is to force al-Aulaqi to respond, thus allowing intelligence a chance at narrowing down his location. Al-Aulaqi is a public figure that is known to actively preach jihad to the younger Muslim generation and with him in hiding al-Qaeda's recruiting efforts could be hurt. It is also possible that U.S. intelligence is attempting to drive a wedge between al-Aulaqi and his tribe by threatening this targeting action. Al-Aulaqi is also not an experienced militant which means that without someone in Yemen providing him shelter he could easily make a mistake leading to his demise.

Continue reading "Iranian Nuclear Scientist Defects to U.S." »

Iranian Nuclear Scientist Defects to U.S.

By William Tucker

Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri has reportedly defected to the U.S. following a mysterious disappearance in Saudi Arabia last year during the Hajj. Prior to his defection, Amiri had worked on the Iranian nuclear program at Malek Ashtar University in Tehran which is run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is likely that Amiri has provided valuable intelligence to the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, but revealing his defection so publicly comes with several pitfalls that may impact intelligence collection on the Iranians in the future.

Saudi Arabia Disrupts Terror Plot - Massive Arrests

By William Tucker

Saudi Arabian security affairs spokesman Mansour al-Turki announced today that the Kingdom had arrested 113 militants - half of which are Yemeni. According to the KSA government, the militants were divided into three cells with two cells planning suicide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis did not come out and identify al-Qaeda by name, but they did use language typical of government officials that indicate al-Qaeda was indeed behind the plot. The size, scope and ambition of the plot show that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is still determined and capable of launching attacks regionally.

That being said there are other elements that need to be explored. For instance, the KSA government stated that in addition to the Yemenis involved in the plot individuals from Bangladesh, Eritrea and Somalia were also arrested. This is an interesting development because in the past two years al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been working directly with al-Shabaab in Somalia sharing information and cooperating in training and recruiting. Furthermore, the government of Eritrea has been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to counter Ethiopian influence with other Somalia militant groups. Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffered a large setback today the larger al-Qaeda network in the region is hardly a spent force.

Map credit: U.S. Department of Energy

Navy Warns of Al-Qaeda Threats to Yemeni Waters

By William Tucker

The Office of Naval Intelligence is once again warning that al-Qaeda intends to strike out at ocean traffic in the waters between Yemen and Somalia. Threats to waterborne traffic in the waters off Yemen are not new and the Navy reissues warnings to all sea traffic in the area when chatter picks up. In fact, a similar warning was issued about six months ago over the same region. What makes this warning stick out is its timing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has suffered several setbacks as of late, especially coming on the heels of the failed Christmas day airline bombing, and it is not a stretch to believe that they may launch an attack to stay relevant. We must keep in mind that Somalia piracy has been effective even with a large international naval presence operating in the area. Furthermore, these pirates have managed to highjack ships by pulling their skiffs next to the target vessel in order to board - a similar tactic used to hit the USS Cole in 2000 and the M/V Limburg in October 2002.

Continue reading "Taliban Execute American 'Spies'" »

Taliban Execute American 'Spies'

By William Tucker

Several media outlets are reporting that the Taliban have executed four American spies. The bodies of the suspected spies were found in the village of Mir Ali in North Waziristan accompanied with the note stating that, "Spies are spies, and they will come to the same fate as these men. Do not spy for America." It is not news that the Taliban are executing individuals they suspect of spying, but it does give us an opportunity to discuss why the Taliban suspect they have spies in their midst.

Continue reading "Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows" »

Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows

By William Tucker

I am often asked about claims in the media of Iranian support for al-Qaeda and Venezuelan support for Hezbollah and how it's possible for these politically different elements to work together. While these questions are important they are hardly the only representative relationships that exist between elements that are so different on paper its hard to believe that they would cooperate on anything. The short answer as to why these nations and terrorist groups cooperate is not so much about ideology, but rather the pursuit of a common, short term goal.

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: Droudkel Out as Leader?

By William Tucker

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) released a new video a new video on March 7 asking for new recruits. What made this video stand out is the absence of Abdel Malek Droudkel, the group's leader. In his place is a known associate who may have had a falling out with Droudkel recently as Droudkel has been making decisions without consulting anyone else. In this case Abou Youcef el-Annabi, the head of AQIM's Council of Worthies, was the spokesman in the latest video release and is the probable author of the recent written releases as well.

To be fair, AQIM has not said that Droudkel has been replaced, but his absence certainly raises questions since he is the authority that usually speaks on the terrorist groups behalf. It is possible that Droudkel has died as a result of injuries sustained fighting government forces, but we don't have evidence of this yet. If Droudkel has been replaced, because of death or incompetence, we'll have to wait for confirmation from AQIM. Sometimes we are left with little alternative.

Photo credit: Le Figaro (Droudkel on right)

A Strange Twist in the Capture of Baradar

By William Tucker

When news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm" »

Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm

By William Tucker

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

Bali Bomber Dulmatin Killed in Indonesia

By William Tucker

On March 9 Indonesian security forces killed Dulmatin, a leader of Jemaah Islamiyah and the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing. Dulmatin's death was confirmed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono a day later. This successful raid by Indonesia's elite counterterrorist unit detachment 88 is one more in a string of arrests and killing of Jemaah Islamiyah operatives. Dulmatin was certainly a big fish (the U.S. had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head), but while Jemaah Islamiyah is being ripped apart a new group called al-Qaeda Indonesia is just getting started. Two weeks ago a video surfaced on the internet from the new group requesting that all Indonesian Islamist groups should cooperate in the fight to implement Sharia. The connection of this new group to bin Laden's al-Qaeda or the threats against shipping in the Malacca Strait is unknown at this time.

Singapore Warns of Terrorist Threat to Malacca Strait

By William Tucker

Earlier today the Singapore Shipping Agency stated that terrorists are looking to attack oil tankers and other ships of significant value transiting the Malacca Strait. The warning was issued by the Singapore Navy Fusion Centre when they "received an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Straits." The report goes on to say that, "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo."

Threats to shipping in the Malacca Strait are not new, nor are these threats solely in the domain of terrorism. In the late 90's piracy was a major concern which generated significant attention from regional powers such as China and Japan. The Malacca Strait is a important transit point for cargo and oil tankers moving Middle Eastern crude to energy hungry powers of the far east. A 2006 study estimated that 15 million barrels of oil transit the strait per day.

Photo: Singapore Navy patrol on the Malacca Strait
Credit: Associated Press

Gaza's 'Green Prince'

By William Tucker

It has been revealed that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, turned on his father's organization and spied for Israel. According to the Times Online, the junior Yousef had become disenfranchised with the spate of suicide bombings and offered his services to Shin Bet. According to Israeli sources, the intelligence Yousef provided put several members of Hamas in jail and prevented numerous suicide bombings. Much of Yousef's exploits will be detailed in his forthcoming book, Son of Hamas, which should help shed some light on the inner workings of Hamas.

Getting people inside terrorist or criminal organizations is not an easy task and sometimes, though most intelligence officers won't admit it, luck plays a crucial role. This is very much evident in Yousef's case. From a counterintelligence standpoint it seems that Hamas's internal security suffered a major failure and I for one am curious as to why.

The Times Online article is here

Another Taliban Leader Apprehended

By William Tucker

Fox News is reporting that Mulvi Kabir, the former Taliban governor in Afghanistan's Nangahar Province, and a key figure in the Taliban regime was recently captured in Pakistan. Coming on the heels of the capture of Mullah Baradar one could reasonably assume that Baradar has given up information on the location of several leading Taliban members. In fact, in the last week several high ranking Taliban have been captured. Additionally, Muhammad Haqqani, the son of the infamous Jalaluddin Haqqani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in North Wazirastan. If the capture of Baradar is directly responsible for the flurry of recent activity then we it would follow that the more recent arrests could impact operations at the lower end of the spectrum thus making U.S efforts in Afghanistan more fruitful.

IAEA Believes Iran Working on Nuclear Weapon

By William Tucker

On Thursday, the IAEA issued another report on Iran's nuclear program which contained language that is far harsher than anything released in the recent past. This most recent report confirms Iranian claims of enriching uranium to 20 percent and also states that Iran is working on a missile delivery system. The suspicion of modifying a missile with the intention of carrying a nuclear payload was first leaked to the Associated Press back in October 2009, but this is the first time the IAEA has come out and publicly confirmed that finding. Now that these findings have been made public we can expect many of the larger western nations to push for increased sanctions in the very near future, but there is still no guarantee that they will pass the UN Security council.

Continue reading "Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line" »

Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line

By William Tucker

Authors note: I wrote this article in early October 2009. My purpose in posting it here is to give some background information on the Iranian nuclear standoff. As things move to a crisis point I will post relevant information here.

The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.

The Fate of Hakimullah Mehsud

By William Tucker
Whenever the U.S. carries out a drone strike in Pakistan's restive border areas rumors are quick to follow. Such is the case with the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud. The U.S. struck two sites in Northern Waziristan on the 13th and 14th of January targeting the TTP leader only to have Mehsud release two audio tapes confirming his survival, but the rumors of his death still continue. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Pakistan do not have reliable intelligence assets in the area leaving the answer to the questions of known terrorist leaders' welfare elusive. As Professor Hesterman pointed out in her post on January 22nd, the intelligence gap is well known. This gap forces those of us that rely on open sources to wait for confirmation from the Taliban as to the current status of Mehsud.

The Blog@ Homeland Security

With hopes to provide an "inside-out view" of what is done every day in the world of homeland security, the DHS launched a new site The Blog @Homeland Security.

Al Qaeda is Eyeing MySpace, Facebook, Friends Reunited, PalTalk

By Shelley Smith
Originally published Feb. 2, 2008

Great Britain's Security Service MI5 requested its British troops to remove personal details of themselves off popular social networking sites like Facebook, MySpace and Friends Reunited due to discovering that they were being monitored by Al-Qaeda operatives. In the January, 2008 Free Republic article, 'Al-Qaeda eyes MySpace Pages', Gordon Thomas writes about the concern expressed by the MI5 chief Jonathan Evans in a document titled 'Personal Security'. Evans asks for security service personnel to be aware of the monitoring and gathering of personal details that can be formed into intelligence used to launch terrorist attacks against their colleagues, or family members.

Though access to many of these social websites may be for members only, all one needs to register is an e-mail address. Al-Qaeda operatives are using hundreds of false accounts to access personal information. And what are they finding?

Thousands of military and security personnel who have posted detailed information about themselves, their careers, personal pictures and family members, date of birth, locations of where they are living, photos of colleagues and weapons.

In the United States Islamic extremists are utilizing technology. Radical Muslims are attempting to bring Islamic religious law into the United States and had murdered a New Jersey man and his family. Others have been victims by operatives systematically tracking individuals through PalTalk.com and other websites. An individual who lives overseas had his computer hacked to obtain his photograph, his real name and the city where he lives, while other individuals are having their personal information being exchanged through extremist websites in order to facilitate harm. With this new wave of activities it is important to maintain OPSEC.

The U.S. Department of Energy, Computer Incident Advisory Capability (CIAC), who conducts Cyber Security programs, has posted the latest Vulnerability Bulletins to share with U.S. interagency personnel.

Source:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1953538/posts

www.JihadWatch.com

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42633

http://www.ciac.org/ciac/bulletins/s-151.shtml

http://www.securityfocus.com/bid/27493/discuss

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

Global Security Brief

A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

National Dragnet Nearly Complete

According to The Washington Post, a U.S. Justice Department information-sharing system called the National Data Exchange (N-DEx) is nearly complete.

Check out the full story.

The data system, which law enforcement authorities hope will become a "one-stop shop" for information, will be accessible to the federal-law enforcement agencies like the FBI, and state fusion centers.

How Terrorists Are Using Freely Accessible Internet Services

From TAM-C Analysts

Google Earth

At least one jihadist Web site, focused on terrorism in Iraq, has published a link to Google Earth, suggesting that "all the mujahideen (jihad fighters) who want to coordinate [actions] in Iraq" use the service, "with the exact city or camp," to obtain aerial photographs.

TAM-C analysts and other intelligence centers have repeatedly warned of the dangers associated with open sources of intelligence and this hyperlinking by Iraqi jihadists confirms these warnings.

Israeli security officials have also indicated this week their frustration over Google Earth having released detailed aerial photos of Israeli territory, including sensitive security facilities. This is the first time that such images have been available to the general public, although the maps used by Google Earth are several years old. An Israeli security source quoted by Ynet news service called the Google Earth development "a gold mine for terrorists."

TAM-C's domestic / eco-terror analysts have also observed the use of Google Earth by eco-terror and Anarchist groups as they plan "direct action" activities.

YouTube

In a related novel use of free resources on the Internet, jihadists uploaded an instructional video on bomb-making to the open-access video-sharing Web site YouTube over the summer. According to reports from Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor)-a private intelligence agency-U.S. authorities instructed YouTube operators to remove the video, which was in the Arabic language, but the fact that it was uploaded to an open Web site such as YouTube indicated an intention to spread the information widely. The clip demonstrated how to construct a detonator for IEDs using a remote-controlled toy.

Stratfor reports also states that U.S. authorities have identified the instructor, whose face is not seen in the video, as a 24-year-old Egyptian who was attending the University of Southern Florida. The man, Ahmed Mohamed, was arrested by police in South Carolina on August 4, 2007 on charges of possession of a destructive device.

According to the New York Times, in part as a result of the above-mentioned YouTube video, U.S. Transportation Security Administration officials will be increasing scrutiny of airline passengers carrying remote-controlled toys.

For more intelligence research and analysis such as this, visit www.terrorresponse.org

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Round Up" »

Actionable Intelligence Round Up

By Aaron Richman

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Continue reading "North Africa" »

North Africa

By Aaron Richman

Tam-C native Arab language miners have come across a threat made by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) on Algeria and Morocco.

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Roundup" »

Actionable Intelligence Roundup

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism. For more information about these intelligence briefings, visit

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Roundup" »

Actionable Intelligence Roundup

This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - July 2, 2007 to July 9, 2007" »

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - July 2, 2007 to July 9, 2007

By Aaron Richman

This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 25 to July 2, 2007" »

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 25 to July 2, 2007

This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Counter-Terror Events and Alerts From Around the World

20 June 2007 London: Anti-war protests are scheduled for 10 AM in Parliament Square. This demonstration is a protest against possible future military actions aimed at Iran.
Peace Strike, the group sponsoring this event, has previously attempted to serve a citizen's arrest warrant on Great on Britain's PM Tony Blair. (Also see 23 June 2007)

22 June 2007 Quebec City: The GUERRE À LA GUERRE coalition has called for the disruption of military ceremonies that are to occur prior to the Afghanistan deployment of the Royal 22nd Regiment of Valcartier. The group has planned "a day of disruptive actions."

23 - 28 June 2007 London: An Anti-war Camp is scheduled to be conducted in Parliament Square. This unauthorized demonstration (no parade/demonstration permit has been obtained) is intended to influence incoming British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The focus of the demonstrations is the Trident nuclear submarine project, the war in Iraq, and the potential for conflict with Iran.

Peace Strike, the group sponsoring this event, has previously attempted to serve a citizen's arrest warrant on Great on Britain's PM Tony Blair. (Also see 20 June 2007). The unauthorized nature of this demonstration will likely produce street disorder as police take enforcement actions.

24 June 2007 Los Angeles: ANSWER is sponsoring a mass march for immigrant rights in Los Angeles. The theme is ". A strong and united movement for immigrant rights will bolster the overall struggle for civil rights and against racism." ANSWER events typically include mass civil disobedience.

27 June - 1 July 2007 Atlanta, GA: The United States Social Forum (USSF) is dedicated to opposing United States policies and actions within the country and abroad. They will be holding a conference in Atlanta to discuss various issues and to build an action calendar for the next year. The Forum includes "anti-imperialism" and anti-war groups. TAM-C analysts expect the USSF to focus attention on the Iraq war through legal demonstrations.

28 June - 3 July 2007 Glen Woods, Scotland: Protests targeting the Faslane Trident nuclear submarine base are scheduled. Billed as a "student camp", it will include protests and direct action.

29 June 2007 Montreal: Anarchy groups will be demonstrating their anger at the CN Railroad and their support of Indian activists who state that the railroad was built a stolen indigenous people's land.

30 June 2007 London: A Gay Pride parade is scheduled to start on Baker Street at 1 PM. This even will end with a rally in Trafalgar Square. Parade organizers expect anti-gay protests along the parade route .

30 June 2007 Leeds, UK: The World Development Movement will be holding a training/educational program at the University of Leeds. The program, aimed at anti-establishment groups from across the world, is entitled "Whose Rules Rule?" Although this is billed as an educational program, TAM-C analysts expect "anti-globalization" protests in the area.

30 June 2007 London: In preparation for protests at August's Climate Action Camp, British ecological activists are conducting a day of Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) training. The training is designed to help the activists prepare for confrontations with police and security personnel. At this time, protest leaders are being asked to use this training opportunity to conduct actual protests in the area of the construction of the International Olympic site that is being prepared for the 2012 Olympics. TAM-C researchers will continue to monitor this in an attempt to confirm that the protests will actually occur and to provide an exact location.

30 June 2007 Multiple Locations: Racist organizations are mourning the death of David Lane, the founder of the militant group, The Order, who died in prison. Racist organizations are attempting to organize a Global Day Of Remembrance And Protest For David Lane. Locations with active "White Nationalist" groups should prepare for protests and counter protests surrounding this event.

6 - 8 July 2007 Iceland: A summer of international dissent and action against infrastructure improvement in Iceland will begin 6 July 2007. These protests are aimed at the improvement of roads and the construction of a power plant that will enable the growth of industry in the island nation.

19 - 23 July 2007 Los Angeles: Animal Rights 2007, the animal rights movement's annual national conference will be taking place in Los Angeles. Speakers include representatives of extremely militant AR organizations − from SHAC (Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty) to SPEAK (the organization currently trying to shut down Oxford University's research lab [currently under construction]).

TAM-C analysts expect street demonstrations throughout this period. However, organizers are planning for demonstrations on 23 July 2007. Likely targets are UCLA's animal research labs.

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 18 to June 25 , 2007" »

Actionable Intelligence Briefing - June 18 to June 25 , 2007

This Intelligence report from the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response includes information from open and closed intelligence sources.

Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism.

Continue reading "How You Can Take Part in the Security Industry's Growing Job Market" »

How You Can Take Part in the Security Industry's Growing Job Market

Global security is a huge market – in excess of $100 billion and made up of tens of thousands of businesses. How can you be part of this exciting industry – and launch a rewarding career? Jeffrey T. Fowler, program manager for security management at American Military University, provides tips and insights for entering and succeeding in the field.

Iraq Report: Conditions 'grave and deteriorating'

President Bush released a statement following his meeting with the Iraq Study Group Wednesday, saying that the report "gives a tough assessment on the situation in Iraq" and that he plans to "take every proposal seriously."

Calling the war in Iraq "grave and deteriorating" in their report, the group cautions that there's no clear path to success in this situation, but there's definite room for improvement.

Click here to read the report: The Way Forward
Watch or listen to congressional testimony on the report.
(source: C-SPAN)

Some recommendations found in the report:

By the first quarter of 2008, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq

A renewed commitment to a "two-state solution for Israel and Palestine

Iraq's neighbors should be brought to together for a regional conference

The much-anticipated report from the 10-member, nonpartisan group is receiving mix sentiments around the blogsphere. Everything from "Where's the Outrage?" to "How an Advisory Commision Should Have Been Conducted"

Let us know your thoughts. Discuss it here.

Continue reading "The Need for Better Human Intelligence" »

The Need for Better Human Intelligence

By John Cote MSSI, CPP

The problem with the United States intelligence system is that we have grown to dependant on technological assets. What started with the Church Committee hearings of the 1970’s and continued with the president Jimmy Carter believing the CIA was an organization out of control. Carter cut the human intelligence capability by some 50 percent.

Continue reading "A Few Thoughts on the National Intelligence Estimate" »

A Few Thoughts on the National Intelligence Estimate

by Mike Harbert

For the last couple of weeks, since portions of the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) were leaked to the New York Times and Washington Post, politicians and talking heads in the media have been finding ways to use the information to further bolster their positions.

Continue reading "Bush to Declassify Part of NIE Intelligence Report" »

Bush to Declassify Part of NIE Intelligence Report

President Bush said it is naive and a mistake to think that the war with Iraq has worsened terrorism, disputing a national intelligence assessment by his own administration. He said he is declassifying part of that report.