By William Tucker

One of the maxims of counterterrorism professionals is the belief that terrorism does not occur in a vacuum. Students of political violence may recognize the statement, but the description of this statement often varies depending on who is queried. I take a very general point of view and often define the maxim as simply meaning support. Terrorists need some form of support if they are to be successful and this doesn't always mean state sponsorship, although for the purpose of this post that is the topic we will be following.

Terrorism doesn't occur spontaneously. Those individuals or groups that decide to engage in political violence must learn the craft or they will fail quickly. It is also important to remember that just because an attack is successful doesn't mean that a single tactical advantage will transform into a strategic victory. Take for instance the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. In the simplest terms Kaczynski was anti-technology and preferred to act alone. Because of this it took time for him to create a mail bomb that was effective and even longer for a bomb to actually kill someone. In the end Kaczynski was a failure because his ideas did not motivate a larger trend nor was he able to cause enough havoc to capitalize on. Lone wolves can be dangerous, but they hardly have the ability or effectiveness to garner the attention of foreign intelligence services for recruitment.

Continue reading "The Strategic View of Terrorism" »

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By William Tucker

Several months ago I stated that Iranian intelligence activities would become more aggressive in the face of increased sanctions. Since Iran has still refused to comply with the UNSC and other concerned nations the regime believes, albeit privately, that some sort of military action may be taken to halt the program. Whenever a nation feels a substantial amount of pressure, such as an increase in sanctions, they will inevitably resort to increased intelligence activities to discern the intentions of their adversaries. In Iran's case they will certainly be conducting surveillance on U.S. military installations in the Persian Gulf region, and possibly domestic targets should armed hostilities take place. Iran is well known for its support of militant groups throughout the Middle East and Africa.

Continue reading "Iranian Espionage in the Gulf States" »

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By William Tucker

The Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency's strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.

Continue reading "The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents" »

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By William Tucker

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is holding their regular war games, but this time the focus is on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke in the Persian Gulf through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows and is a major artery into Iraq for U.S. military operations. Should a military attack occur against Iran's nuclear sites the clerical regime has threatened to use several different measures at its disposal to close the strait. In this exercise the IRGC is using naval, ground and air forces to demonstrate that they maintain some capability to carry out this threat. Unlike Operation Praying Mantis, a short naval engagement between Iran and the U.S., Iran is likely to engage U.S. warships in asymmetric warfare using small speed boats laden with explosives. The Iranian military also has several batteries of surface to surface missiles in the area that are capable of striking U.S. targets in the vicinity including the 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Ultimately the U.S. Navy is far superior in military capability and can mitigate this threat, but any traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can have severe economic repercussions worldwide.

Continue reading "Iran Conducts 'Prophet 5' War Games in Persian Gulf" »

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By William Tucker

Several media outlets were reporting yesterday that Iran would be capable of developing a missile that could potentially hit the continental United States by 2015. This information was pulled from an assessment drafted by the U.S. Department of Defense as required by congress. By itself a missile capable of reaching the U.S. is not really news unless the missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It would appear that DOD expects Iran to continue down the path toward possession of nuclear weapon as a missile capable of reaching the U.S. would be useless otherwise.

Continue reading "DOD Releases Assessment of Iranian Military" »

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By William Tucker

Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri has reportedly defected to the U.S. following a mysterious disappearance in Saudi Arabia last year during the Hajj. Prior to his defection, Amiri had worked on the Iranian nuclear program at Malek Ashtar University in Tehran which is run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is likely that Amiri has provided valuable intelligence to the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, but revealing his defection so publicly comes with several pitfalls that may impact intelligence collection on the Iranians in the future.

Continue reading "Iranian Nuclear Scientist Defects to U.S." »

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By William Tucker

I am often asked about claims in the media of Iranian support for al-Qaeda and Venezuelan support for Hezbollah and how it's possible for these politically different elements to work together. While these questions are important they are hardly the only representative relationships that exist between elements that are so different on paper its hard to believe that they would cooperate on anything. The short answer as to why these nations and terrorist groups cooperate is not so much about ideology, but rather the pursuit of a common, short term goal.

Continue reading "Terrorism and International Relations often make Strange Bedfellows" »

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By William Tucker

On Thursday, the IAEA issued another report on Iran's nuclear program which contained language that is far harsher than anything released in the recent past. This most recent report confirms Iranian claims of enriching uranium to 20 percent and also states that Iran is working on a missile delivery system. The suspicion of modifying a missile with the intention of carrying a nuclear payload was first leaked to the Associated Press back in October 2009, but this is the first time the IAEA has come out and publicly confirmed that finding. Now that these findings have been made public we can expect many of the larger western nations to push for increased sanctions in the very near future, but there is still no guarantee that they will pass the UN Security council.

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By William Tucker

Authors note: I wrote this article in early October 2009. My purpose in posting it here is to give some background information on the Iranian nuclear standoff. As things move to a crisis point I will post relevant information here.

The vast majority of information available to the public on the Iranian nuclear program has been speculative at best and contradictory at worst. Perhaps the most confusing document came out in late 2007 in which the U.S. intelligence community declared that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapons program and instead was wholly focused on energy production. It was my contention at the time that this statement was not one made in fact, but rather published for reasons of political expediency. At the time the Bush administration was struggling to come up with a strategy for a deteriorating situation in Iraq and was looking to Iran for help stabilizing the situation. Though this attempt failed the ensuing troop surge managed to bring a tense stability to Iraq and by extension a means by which the U.S. could begin to draw down the troop presence. Because of a recent revelation by the Obama administration this previous analysis holds true.

Continue reading "Iran, the Bomb, and the Israeli Red Line" »

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By William Tucker

The Obama administration has levied new sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or more specifically, Gen. Rostam Qasemi and four subsidiaries of a construction firm that he operates. This action is not unprecedented, and in fact was initiated under executive order 13224 which President Bush signed two weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to obstruct terrorist funding. Furthermore, the U.S. officially designated the IRGC as a "specially designated global terrorist" in 2007 following allegations of Iranian support for insurgents in Iraq.

While the original purpose of targeted sanctions against IRGC entities was to discourage foreign nations and businesses from working with Iran for its ties to terrorism, they have now become a tool for pressuring Tehran from continuing work on its nuclear program. The new sanctions may make for good press, but they are hardly expected to yield results. The reason for this is the sanctions are only binding to U.S. persons and businesses, leaving foreign nations the ability to fully cooperate with Iran on any number of business opportunities. As the world's largest economy the U.S. does have the ability to wield its massive buying power to pressure other countries to prevent them from doing business with Tehran, but this action is not guaranteed to work and could very well work against Washington's interests.

In the immediate future the U.N. Security Council will take up the topic of imposing international sanctions against Iran, but once again success in this action faces serious challenges. For international sanctions to be passed all permanent members of the Security Council must vote in favor of implementation, but with diplomatic ties between the U.S., Russia, and China strained at the moment this is unlikely to happen. Although these sanctions are new the same problems exist in implementation making the other options for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, such as military action, more likely.

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A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

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A daily, open source, around the world tour of international security-related news.

By Professor Joseph B. Varner

Continue reading "Global Security Brief" »

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This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism. For more information about these intelligence briefings, visit

Continue reading "Actionable Intelligence Roundup" »

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In a commentary article for the Wall Street Journal, Terror Free Tomorrow president Ken Ballen unveils significant findings of the first uncensored public opinion survey of Iran since President Ahmadinejad took office.

The survey shines a light on widespread discontent with the current system of government, the economy and isolation from the West.

Read the full article.

Related Articles and Blogs
Study from Terror Free Tomorrow (viewfromiran.blogspot.com)
Poll Results Point to Internal Dissent Over Iran's Nuke Program (kfwb.com)

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