By William Tucker

The Kenyan Daily Nation is reporting that Ethiopian troops have twice crossed into Somalia along with Somali troops that are loyal to the TFG in Mogadishu. The details of these incursions are limited, but do show that the Ethiopian government is concerned about the al-Shabaab offensive against AMISOM and the TFG. Combat in Mogadishu has moved closer to the presidential palace which was recently struck by al-Shabaab mortars killing four Ugandan soldiers. For its part, Uganda is requesting US assistance and funding to move an addition 10,000 Ugandan troops to Somalia. We may not have a clear picture of the situation on the ground in Mogadishu, but the concern expressed by the Ethiopian and Ugandan governments show that the situation is growing steadily worse.

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By William Tucker

Since the declaration of 'major war' against AU and TFG forces in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab forces continue to advance towards the presidential palace and other government strongholds. AllAfrica.com reported yesterday that the Mekka-al-mukarama road between the presidential palace and the airport had been shut down by al-Shabaab forces. Thus far casualty estimates are around 80 civilians without any casualty numbers provided by the belligerent forces. Although al-Shabaab seems to be steadily advancing there has not been any word from AU peacekeeping nations on resupply or even an allowance to counterattack. It appears as if things are rapidly heading south in the besieged Somali capital.

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By William Tucker

On August 22, the Somali militant group al-Shabaab announced it was going to launch a "massive war" against the foreign forces protecting the Transitional Federal Government. Making good on their announcement, al-Shabaab attacked the Muna Hotel near the presidential palace in Mogadishu last night killing 28 including 15 lawmakers. Although the Muna attack is what made the headlines there was much more fighting going on in the city prior to the assault on the hotel. The first reported attack was carried out against a base belonging to the Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah (ASWJ) which was successfully repelled resulting in the deaths of 15 al-Shabaab militants. Looking at the attacks and their locations it appears as if al-Shabaab was using these as cover for the eventual assault on the hotel. By striking multiple targets the defenders were pulled away allowing al-Shabaab members dressed in TFG uniforms to attack the hotel. While this recent attack took place in Somalia it is unlikely the group has given up on its desire to launch international attacks against the nations that are supplying the AU troops in Somalia.

Continue reading "Al-Shabaab Goes on the Offensive" »

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By William Tucker

During a news conference yesterday US Attorney General Eric Holder announced that 14 people had been indicted for providing support to the Somali terror group al-Shabaab. This comes one day after a Chicago man was arrested by the FBI for attempting to leave the US and join the terror group for training. Over the last year al-Shabaab has become increasingly internationalized as foreign al-Qaeda operatives move to east Africa to continue to ply their jihadist trade. As more nations work to support the TFG in Somalia it is logical that Shabaab will continue to expand operations internationally. Raising funds will be the main focus of the international work, but as experienced al-Qaeda members continue to move to Somalia more international attacks will quickly follow.

Continue reading "DOJ Charges 14 for Aiding Al-Shabaab" »

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By William Tucker

"If Fazul Abdullah Mohammed continues to operate as he has in the past it is highly likely that he will be able to command the smaller al-Shabaab force in a more efficient manner than the complex alliance supporting the TFG. It is also highly likely that he will have multiple external operations planned against countries and elements supporting the TFG when and if the offensive takes place."
- William Tucker, In Homeland Security, March 13, 2010

"If al -Shabaab is indeed responsible for the attacks - as their leadership has publicly claimed - it would mark the group's first successful attack outside of Somalia and could portend future external attacks in Africa and beyond."
- DHS Intelligence Note, DHS Office of Intelligence & Analysis, July 12, 2010

Continue reading "Intelligence Gone Wrong: Why the Analysts Underestimated Al-Shabaab" »

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By William Tucker

At approximately 11:00 p.m. local time, two bombs struck a restaurant and a Rugby club in the Ugandan capital of Kampala. The current official death toll is unknown, reported to be above 30, but the damage is substantial. Local authorities believe that the targets were chosen because of the large presence of locals and foreigners watching the World Cup. Thus far no one has claimed responsibility for the blasts, but speculation has already fallen on the Somali al-Shabaab terror group.

Continue reading "Terror in Uganda: Al-Shabaab Responsible?" »

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By William Tucker

Two events today provide the opportunity to discuss al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the symbiotic relationship between the two terror groups. Coming first out of Yemen was news that a suicide bomber attempted to strike the British ambassador's vehicle while he was driving to work. According to reports the Ambassador took great lengths to vary the route he took to work, but because of traffic congestion the bomber was able to get close enough to detonate near the Ambassador's vehicle. Yemeni officials have said that the bomber was the only casualty in the attack.

Continue reading "Al-Shabaab Fights Pirates, AQAP Fights British Diplomat" »

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By William Tucker

Saudi Arabian security affairs spokesman Mansour al-Turki announced today that the Kingdom had arrested 113 militants - half of which are Yemeni. According to the KSA government, the militants were divided into three cells with two cells planning suicide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis did not come out and identify al-Qaeda by name, but they did use language typical of government officials that indicate al-Qaeda was indeed behind the plot. The size, scope and ambition of the plot show that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is still determined and capable of launching attacks regionally.

That being said there are other elements that need to be explored. For instance, the KSA government stated that in addition to the Yemenis involved in the plot individuals from Bangladesh, Eritrea and Somalia were also arrested. This is an interesting development because in the past two years al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been working directly with al-Shabaab in Somalia sharing information and cooperating in training and recruiting. Furthermore, the government of Eritrea has been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to counter Ethiopian influence with other Somalia militant groups. Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suffered a large setback today the larger al-Qaeda network in the region is hardly a spent force.

Map credit: U.S. Department of Energy

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By William Tucker

In the past two months rumors of an impending assault on the Somali capital of Mogadishu have gathered steam. In the midst of all this several militant groups have undergone changes and political alliances have shifted. The first noticeable shift came when Hizbul Islam, one of the Islamist groups that assaulted Mogadishu in 2009, split with half of the group merging with al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab and the others left fighting for their very existence. Another significant event was the meeting in Addis Ababa between the Somali transitional government (TFG) and Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah. According to several press reports the TFG and Ahlu Sunnah came to some sort of an agreement, but while the exact details are unknown we can reasonably assume that the two parties agreed to military cooperation and possible collaboration on a future government. And finally we have word today that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the mastermind of the bombing of two U.S. Embassies in Africa, has reemerged and taken the helm of al-Shabaab. Indeed, this is a disturbing development.

Continue reading "Al-Qaeda Veteran Takes al-Shabaab Helm" »

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For the last few years, Pirates on the Carribean conjured the swashbuckling antics of Johnny Depp. Nowadays romantized notions of such a thing has been put to rest by the real thing.

In Homeland Security blogger Jenni Hesterman, warned travelers of such happenings months ago.

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John A.Cote MSSI, CPP

Although events in Iraq, Gaza and Afghanistan have been taking more than their share of headlines as of late, a war in Somalia has been brewing for the past few months.

Continue reading "The Coming War in Somalia" »

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