By William Tucker

ABC News is reporting that a recently released DHS Intelligence Note is stating attempted terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland in the last 9 months has surpassed the number of attempts in any previous one year period. For the loyal readers of In Homeland Security, and my previous blog the World of Terrorism, you will note that this has been an ongoing topic of mine going back to September 2009 with the most recent posts falling within the last month. Since that time we have seen the tempo of attempted attacks continue to increase while our capability to thwart these plots has diminished due to mission fatigue.

Continue reading "YOU READ IT HERE FIRST - ABC News: EXCLUSIVE: Terror Attacks Against U.S. At All-Time High" »

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By William Tucker

ISAF coalition spokesman Brig. Gen. Josef Blotz stated that the Taliban launched an assault on the Kandahar Air Field making the attack the third major strike against large coalition targets in Afghanistan over the last few days. The assault on the Kandahar installation began at about 8 p.m. local time with a mortar and rocket barrage followed by a small arms attack. Reports state that the assault was repelled and aircraft were scanning the area around the airbase looking for any Taliban that may have stayed behind. Although the Taliban have initiated its summer offensive it still appears as if the insurgency cannot strike multiple locations across the country at once - at least for now. At this point the Taliban seem satisfied to attack major military installations at their leisure to show they still retain the capability to inflict damage.

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By William Tucker

On May 17 the Taliban struck an ISAF convoy in Kabul killing six soldiers (5 American, 1 Canadian) and 12 civilians. Today, the Taliban followed that attack with an assault on Bagram Airbase killing a U.S. contractor and wounding five soldiers. The second attack was a tactical failure for the Taliban which resulted in the death of ten of the attackers before they could detonate their suicide vests. In any kind of war attacks and counterattacks occur with regularity meaning that these attacks do not carry any real strategic or tactical value alone, but when taken together they show the Taliban still possess the ability to strike targets in and around Kabul. These attacks, successful or not, provide the Taliban with a propaganda victory.

Continue reading "The Taliban's Strategic Problem" »

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By William Tucker

Several U.S. Senators wrote Secretary of State Hillary Clinton requesting that the Pakistani Taliban be added to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Earlier I noted the difficulty in doing so; however this does not mean I am opposed to the action. It is certainly something that could be done, but this would be an empty gesture at best. The U.S. is already targeting the multiple elements of the Pakistani Taliban and has used various avenues to attack funding of terrorist groups including those aligned with the Taliban. Part of the problem with designating the TTP a FTO is the fractious nature of the group making identification of individuals affiliated with the group nearly impossible. Taking the step to designate the TTP may have some benefit, but other steps are needed including disrupting support from foreign intelligence services.

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By William Tucker

Several Days ago Professor Jenni Hesterman authored a piece entitled The Taliban: Time to Make it a Designated Terror Group discussing the need to finally designate the Taliban as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in the wake of the failed Times Square bombing. Indeed, it seems quite strange that the Taliban have not been added to the list since elements of the movement have perpetrated terrorist acts against civilians in Pakistan and Afghanistan. There are several reasons that the Taliban have not been added to the list, but each of these reasons flow from a single point of failure; the Taliban is not an organization.

Continue reading "Problems Designating the Taliban Movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization" »

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By William Tucker

Law enforcement officials have announced that Faisal Shahzad, a naturalized U.S. citizen of Pakistani decent, has been arrested in connection with the failed bombing plot in Times Square. While Shahzad claimed that he acted alone, news reports are claiming that Pakistan has arrested an individual also linked to the Times Square plot in Karachi. Media reports have stated that Shahzad traveled to Pakistan recently; however the specific places that he visited were not immediately available. If the reports of another arrest are indeed accurate it would come as no surprise as the Pakistani Taliban have increased their presence in the city in the last few years. Pakistani military operations in the Afghan border areas have forced many people to flee, including some Taliban leadership, making it possible that Shahzad didn't have to travel far to make contact with the Taliban. I will post more information as it becomes available.

Photo: Drudge Report

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By William Tucker

Both the FBI and the NYPD are searching for a Connecticut man in connection with the attempt to detonate a vehicle borne improvised explosive device in Times Square. According to news reports the individual being sought has not reported to work and his girlfriend has not seen him since the failed attack. With this type of attempted attack it is curious that law enforcement has not yet released a name, nor the identity of the suspect as help from the public in locating this person of interest would be beneficial. As is the trend for would be vehicle bombings in the U.S. the individual made the mistake of not removing all identifying markings allowing law enforcement to learn that the vehicle had been purchased via craigslist.com.

We still don't have a solid lead on the motivation for this attack. I wrote yesterday that the Pakistani Taliban had claimed responsibility and released a video that appeared to have been made prior to the discovery of the VBIED lending credence to their claim. On the other hand it could have been nothing more than an attempt to garner attention from the media. An interesting twist on this possibility occurred today when a Taliban spokesman denied they were responsible for the failed attack, thus undermining the claim from Taliban bomb maker Qari Hussain Mehsud. Hopefully more information will be released from the government shortly.

Photo: NY Daily News

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By William Tucker

On the evening of May 1, the NYPD was notified of a smoking vehicle by an observant street vendor. According to the New York Times, a white male was seen fleeing the scene shortly after parking the vehicle. On the heels of this was a YouTube video from the Pakistani Taliban claiming responsibility, and judging by the audio it appears as if the video was recorded beforehand because the video expected the bombing to be successful leading credence to the TTP claim. At this point that is the only verification we have as too the responsibility for the attempted attack, although Fox News did report that a 911 call was made several hours after the bombs discovery claiming that it was to be a prelude to a larger attack. Any connection between the two is purely speculative until more information is released.

Continue reading "Attempted Car Bombing in Times Square" »

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By William Tucker

After a long debate over the fate of Hakimullah Mehsud it now appears as if the Pakistanis are admitting that public enemy number one is still alive. According to multiple media accounts, an intelligence officer with the Pakistani ISI has stated that the leader of the TTP did not die in a U.S. drone attack on January 14, 2010. When the rumors of Mehsud's death first began intelligence over a successor was lacking leading many to believe that the Pakistanis were once again premature in announcing the death of a militant. Now that we have evidence that Mehsud is still alive it still does not mean he is still leading the group. A spokesman for the U.S. State Department alluded to this possibility recently; however sources available to the Long War Journal have dismissed that possibility. Regardless of this disagreement it does appear as if the TTP is having some sort of a crisis of leadership. If reports from the Taliban are correct that Hakimullah is alive and running the group his current need to lay low may be undermining the group's efficiency. While there have been several attacks against the Pakistani state they pale in comparison to the reign of terror following Mehsud's ascension to the top of the TTP's leadership. Now that Mehsud's vitals have been verified once again we'll have to see if he makes a media appearance to dispel all doubt.

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By William Tucker

The Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency's strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.

Continue reading "The Need for Offensive Counterintelligence against Insurgents" »

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By William Tucker

The Associated Press held an interview with a Taliban commander claiming that the insurgent movement was moving additional troops and planting IED's in anticipation of a NATO offensive in Kandahar this summer. The commander, known only as Mubeen, claimed to have the support of the local population in the southern Afghan city which is dominated by the Pashtu. It is possible that his claim is correct as the Taliban movement has long called Kandahar home. In any counterinsurgency campaign the struggle is not limited to combat, but rather focused on the struggle to gain a populations trust. In Kandahar this will be an uphill battle for NATO forces.

In most asymmetric battles the indigenous force can often wait out the occupying force, or the locals can engage in low level warfare in an attempt to move up the time table. That being said, both NATO and the Taliban have a problem. NATO must eventually leave while the Taliban have been significantly weakened and there is guarantee that they possess the strength to retake the country once NATO withdraws. The Kandahar offensive will provide an interesting metric that the future of Afghanistan can be measured against.

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By William Tucker

Just after 1:00 pm local time on April 5, the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar Pakistan was heavily attacked by multiple vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) with a follow on attack by militants on foot. Militants in Pakistan and Iraq have been using VBIEDS as a means of breaching the fortified outer perimeters of hotels and government buildings as a means of creating a space from which other militants can enter the area. Multiple media reports state that the attackers were wearing security uniforms which helped the militants get closer to the target. Following precedent of the last several years, once the militants breached the outer walls the follow on attack targeted security personnel with small arms, mortars, and RPG fire.

Continue reading "American Consulate Attacked in Peshawar Pakistan" »

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By William Tucker

When news broke of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture one month ago the operation was hailed as a successful collaboration of Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, and yet not everyone was please with the outcome. The AP is reporting today that the arrest of Baradar infuriated Afghan President Hamid Karzai because he was working with Baradar towards holding a peace summit between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement. If this report is accurate then it raises numerous questions.

U.S. policy has stated on many occasions that negotiating with reconcilable elements of the Taliban was necessary for NATO's withdrawal. Understanding this it stands to reason that there was a breakdown in communications between the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghan governments; or the U.S. and Pakistan new about Karzai's arrangement and chose to ignore it. Because of the close work between the Afghan and U.S. governments it is unlikely that the U.S. did not know that Karzai was speaking with Baradar. On the other hand it is possible that the U.S. and the Pakistanis thought Baradar held information on the whereabouts of high ranking Taliban and al-Qaeda thus forcing both nations to go around Karzai. Given the numerous arrests that followed in the wake of Baradar's detention this scenario seems plausible. Right now I am working with limited information; however I will continue to follow this as it could impact Afghan - U.S. relations.

Photo credit: NY Times

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By William Tucker

Fox News is reporting that Mulvi Kabir, the former Taliban governor in Afghanistan's Nangahar Province, and a key figure in the Taliban regime was recently captured in Pakistan. Coming on the heels of the capture of Mullah Baradar one could reasonably assume that Baradar has given up information on the location of several leading Taliban members. In fact, in the last week several high ranking Taliban have been captured. Additionally, Muhammad Haqqani, the son of the infamous Jalaluddin Haqqani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in North Wazirastan. If the capture of Baradar is directly responsible for the flurry of recent activity then we it would follow that the more recent arrests could impact operations at the lower end of the spectrum thus making U.S efforts in Afghanistan more fruitful.

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By William Tucker

International troops, led by the US, began operations against Taliban militants holed up in the city of Marja near the center of Helmand Province. Thus far, there are reports of sporadic firefights, but resistance has been light. US Marines are having success detecting and destroying IED's that have been strategically placed by the Taliban in preparation for the offensive. Prior to the offensive Special Operations soldiers apparently had great success in eliminating mid level commanders which could help to explain the lack of coordination from Taliban militants that chose to stay and fight.

Afghanistan's government has been able to insert what is essentially a readymade government to ensure civilians are provided with much needed services. Unfortunately for the hearts and minds campaign a rocket attack hit a house killing 12 civilians leading General McCrystal to implement a moratorium on future artillery attacks. It is expected that resistance will remain light; however Taliban elements will now have to look for another safe haven that can provide the much needed money that operations in Marja provided.

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By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

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By William Tucker
Whenever the U.S. carries out a drone strike in Pakistan's restive border areas rumors are quick to follow. Such is the case with the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud. The U.S. struck two sites in Northern Waziristan on the 13th and 14th of January targeting the TTP leader only to have Mehsud release two audio tapes confirming his survival, but the rumors of his death still continue. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Pakistan do not have reliable intelligence assets in the area leaving the answer to the questions of known terrorist leaders' welfare elusive. As Professor Hesterman pointed out in her post on January 22nd, the intelligence gap is well known. This gap forces those of us that rely on open sources to wait for confirmation from the Taliban as to the current status of Mehsud.

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Washington Post writer Karen Young writes that the Taliban has become a much more potent adversary in Afghanistan by improving its own tactics and finding gaps in the U.S. military playbook, according to senior American military officials who acknowledged that the enemy's resurgence this year has taken them by surprise. U.S. rules of engagement restricting the use of airpower and aggressive action against civilians have also opened new space for the insurgents.

Read full article.

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Newsweek profiles, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's second in command. Ron Moreau writes:

"In all likelihood, you've never heard of Mullah Baradar. The only Taliban leader most people know is Mullah Mohammed Omar, the unworldly, one-eyed village preacher who held the grand title amir-ul-momineen--"leader of the faithful"--when he ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Omar remains a high-value target, with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. But he hasn't been seen in at least three years, even by his most loyal followers, and rarely issues direct orders anymore. In his place, the adversary that American forces are squaring off against in Afghanistan--the man ultimately responsible for the spike in casualties that has made July the deadliest month for Coalition soldiers since the war began in 2001--is Baradar. A cunning, little-known figure, he may be more dangerous than Omar ever was."

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