By William Tucker

Fox News is reporting that Mulvi Kabir, the former Taliban governor in Afghanistan's Nangahar Province, and a key figure in the Taliban regime was recently captured in Pakistan. Coming on the heels of the capture of Mullah Baradar one could reasonably assume that Baradar has given up information on the location of several leading Taliban members. In fact, in the last week several high ranking Taliban have been captured. Additionally, Muhammad Haqqani, the son of the infamous Jalaluddin Haqqani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in North Wazirastan. If the capture of Baradar is directly responsible for the flurry of recent activity then we it would follow that the more recent arrests could impact operations at the lower end of the spectrum thus making U.S efforts in Afghanistan more fruitful.

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By William Tucker

International troops, led by the US, began operations against Taliban militants holed up in the city of Marja near the center of Helmand Province. Thus far, there are reports of sporadic firefights, but resistance has been light. US Marines are having success detecting and destroying IED's that have been strategically placed by the Taliban in preparation for the offensive. Prior to the offensive Special Operations soldiers apparently had great success in eliminating mid level commanders which could help to explain the lack of coordination from Taliban militants that chose to stay and fight.

Afghanistan's government has been able to insert what is essentially a readymade government to ensure civilians are provided with much needed services. Unfortunately for the hearts and minds campaign a rocket attack hit a house killing 12 civilians leading General McCrystal to implement a moratorium on future artillery attacks. It is expected that resistance will remain light; however Taliban elements will now have to look for another safe haven that can provide the much needed money that operations in Marja provided.

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By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

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By William Tucker
Whenever the U.S. carries out a drone strike in Pakistan's restive border areas rumors are quick to follow. Such is the case with the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban Hakimullah Mehsud. The U.S. struck two sites in Northern Waziristan on the 13th and 14th of January targeting the TTP leader only to have Mehsud release two audio tapes confirming his survival, but the rumors of his death still continue. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Pakistan do not have reliable intelligence assets in the area leaving the answer to the questions of known terrorist leaders' welfare elusive. As Professor Hesterman pointed out in her post on January 22nd, the intelligence gap is well known. This gap forces those of us that rely on open sources to wait for confirmation from the Taliban as to the current status of Mehsud.

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Washington Post writer Karen Young writes that the Taliban has become a much more potent adversary in Afghanistan by improving its own tactics and finding gaps in the U.S. military playbook, according to senior American military officials who acknowledged that the enemy's resurgence this year has taken them by surprise. U.S. rules of engagement restricting the use of airpower and aggressive action against civilians have also opened new space for the insurgents.

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Newsweek profiles, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's second in command. Ron Moreau writes:

"In all likelihood, you've never heard of Mullah Baradar. The only Taliban leader most people know is Mullah Mohammed Omar, the unworldly, one-eyed village preacher who held the grand title amir-ul-momineen--"leader of the faithful"--when he ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Omar remains a high-value target, with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. But he hasn't been seen in at least three years, even by his most loyal followers, and rarely issues direct orders anymore. In his place, the adversary that American forces are squaring off against in Afghanistan--the man ultimately responsible for the spike in casualties that has made July the deadliest month for Coalition soldiers since the war began in 2001--is Baradar. A cunning, little-known figure, he may be more dangerous than Omar ever was."

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