By William Tucker

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is holding their regular war games, but this time the focus is on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke in the Persian Gulf through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows and is a major artery into Iraq for U.S. military operations. Should a military attack occur against Iran's nuclear sites the clerical regime has threatened to use several different measures at its disposal to close the strait. In this exercise the IRGC is using naval, ground and air forces to demonstrate that they maintain some capability to carry out this threat. Unlike Operation Praying Mantis, a short naval engagement between Iran and the U.S., Iran is likely to engage U.S. warships in asymmetric warfare using small speed boats laden with explosives. The Iranian military also has several batteries of surface to surface missiles in the area that are capable of striking U.S. targets in the vicinity including the 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Ultimately the U.S. Navy is far superior in military capability and can mitigate this threat, but any traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can have severe economic repercussions worldwide.

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By William Tucker

Just after 1:00 pm local time on April 5, the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar Pakistan was heavily attacked by multiple vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) with a follow on attack by militants on foot. Militants in Pakistan and Iraq have been using VBIEDS as a means of breaching the fortified outer perimeters of hotels and government buildings as a means of creating a space from which other militants can enter the area. Multiple media reports state that the attackers were wearing security uniforms which helped the militants get closer to the target. Following precedent of the last several years, once the militants breached the outer walls the follow on attack targeted security personnel with small arms, mortars, and RPG fire.

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By William Tucker

The Office of Naval Intelligence is once again warning that al-Qaeda intends to strike out at ocean traffic in the waters between Yemen and Somalia. Threats to waterborne traffic in the waters off Yemen are not new and the Navy reissues warnings to all sea traffic in the area when chatter picks up. In fact, a similar warning was issued about six months ago over the same region. What makes this warning stick out is its timing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has suffered several setbacks as of late, especially coming on the heels of the failed Christmas day airline bombing, and it is not a stretch to believe that they may launch an attack to stay relevant. We must keep in mind that Somalia piracy has been effective even with a large international naval presence operating in the area. Furthermore, these pirates have managed to highjack ships by pulling their skiffs next to the target vessel in order to board - a similar tactic used to hit the USS Cole in 2000 and the M/V Limburg in October 2002.

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By William Tucker

Terrorism experts have long lamented the support for terrorism provided by the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the lack of condemnation from the United States. Earlier this week a Spanish Judge accused Venezuela of actively supporting the Basque separatist group ETA. This is, of course, in addition to accusations of supporting FARC in Colombia, which was verified by Interpol, and support for Lebanon's Hezbollah. Furthermore, a Venezuela defector, who also happened to be Chavez's personal pilot, fingered Caracas for supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Continue reading "Going from Bad to Worse for Hugo Chavez" »

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By William Tucker

The last few weeks have been a headache for Venezuelan strong man Hugo Chavez. Perhaps the most immediate challenge to his uncontested leadership in Caracas is not the political opposition, but rather the decaying of the national electrical infrastructure. This is not to say that everything until this point has been going smoothly for Chavez. On the contrary, inflation is rising, the national debt is out of control, and food is becoming increasingly scarce. In typical dictatorial fashion, Chavez has resorted to targeting his political opposition instead of focusing on the problems at hand.

Unfortunately for Chavez the opposition movement is once again gathering steam; albeit without a strong central leadership, but this could change. With the loss of power to much of the country the traditional center of support for Chavez, the poor, may turn on him and embrace the opposition. Currently, it appears as if Chavez understands this and has asked Cuba to complete its obligation to upgrade Venezuela's aging power grid. To facilitate this deal Cuba has sent Ramiro Valdes, one of the last remaining original members of Fidel Castro's initial push to topple the Batista government in Havana. According to Douglas Farah, a well known terrorism expert, Valdes is known for working with non-state actors and suppression of the political rivals.

The presence of Valdes in Caracas is an indicator that Chavez views his revolution as being in trouble and is seeking outside assistance. With persistent rumors of terrorist sponsorship, both past and present, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Chavez to employ groups such as FARC for domestic strong arm tactics to help prop up his damaged regime. Chavez has survived these tests in the past, but whether he can continue to do so in the face of rising unpopularity remains to be seen.

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By William Tucker

Over the last year, U.S. led troops have been conducting operations against the Taliban in Helmand Province, and yet the largest battle in that area appears to be on the Horizon. The city of Marja, located to the east of Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, is a Taliban stronghold and also happens to be the center of opium trafficking. If the ISAF is able to successfully eject the Taliban from the area it could have a significant impact on Taliban funding.

Thus far, U.S. and British Special Forces have entered the city and begun targeting insurgent and Taliban leadership. Because of the terrain surrounding the city it would be extremely difficult for ISAF troops to cordon off the city prior to an all out assault making the use of Special Forces in this capacity necessary. Making matters worse the terrain favors the defenders thus necessitating the use of irregular warfare to preempt the use of conventional forces. This coming week has the potential to open up some options for the ISAF in the impending negotiations with insurgents wishing to reconcile with the internationally recognized government in Kabul.

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David Stephenson, a leading homeland security, e-governmentand and crisis management strategist, offers up out-of-the-box ideas for surviving a disaster.

This week's tip: Using Twitter

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'California Connected' Talks to national security expert Amy Zegart a UCLA associate professor of public affairs at UCLA's school of public policy.

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